Crystal Palace vs Leeds United Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Selhurst Park Sun, 15 Mar - 2:00 PM
Premier League
Crystal Palace CRY
0 – 0
Leeds United LEE
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 2:00 PM
|
Second yellow card Gabriel Gudmundsson 45+5'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Crystal Palace 0–0 Leeds United. The match ended in a draw. Leeds United showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 67%–33%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Leeds United showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

T. Bramall

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

P. Tierney

4th Official

L. Betts

1st Assistant

M. Wilkes

2nd Assistant

Crystal Palace O. Glasner
O. Glasner
VS
Leeds United D. Farke
D. Farke
1.31
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.17
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Newcastle United Rank: 92 L
Fulham Rank: 87 D
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 87 L
Leeds United Rank: 87 L
Manchester City Rank: 98 L
Fulham Rank: 87 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aston Villa Rank: 94 D
Chelsea Rank: 94 D
Nottingham Forest Rank: 86 W
Arsenal Rank: 100 L
Everton Rank: 88 D
Fulham Rank: 87 W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 3 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Crystal Palace
35.59%
Draw
27.96%
Away Leeds United
36.45%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.68
85.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Crystal Palace
Leeds United
Power Score
70.68
85.52
League Position
14
15
Global Rank
25
30

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Crystal Palace — Opponent-weighted form score
Leeds United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Crystal Palace Leeds United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Crystal Palace

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Leeds United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Crystal Palace ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Leeds United
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.79
37.12
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.12
21.79
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Crystal Palace -1.74 Efficiency Index
vs
Leeds United +1.74 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Crystal Palace
Leeds United
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Crystal Palace ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Leeds United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Crystal Palace Leeds United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Crystal Palace Leeds United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Crystal Palace
Leeds United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Crystal Palace CRY Home
1 matches
Leeds United LEE Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
1
-3
Goal Difference
+3

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:09:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
W. Benítez
Argentina
44 W. Benítez
C. Richards
United States
26 C. Richards
M. Lacroix
France
5 M. Lacroix
J. Canvot
Substitution
France
23 J. Canvot
B. Johnson
Substitution
Wales
11 B. Johnson
W. Hughes
Substitution
England
19 (C) W. Hughes
J. Lerma Solís
Colombia
8 J. Lerma Solís
T. Mitchell
England
3 T. Mitchell
I. Sarr
Senegal
7 I. Sarr
E. Guessand
France
29 E. Guessand
J. Strand Larsen
Substitution
Norway
22 J. Strand Larsen
Pitch
K. Darlow
Wales
26 K. Darlow
P. Struijk
Netherlands
5 P. Struijk
J. Bijol
Slovenia
15 J. Bijol
J. Rodon
Wales
6 J. Rodon
G. Gudmundsson
Sweden
3 G. Gudmundsson
A. Stach
Germany
18 A. Stach
E. Ampadu
Wales
4 (C) E. Ampadu
J. Justin
England
24 J. Justin
B. Aaronson
Substitution
United States
11 B. Aaronson
L. Nmecha
Substitution
Germany
14 L. Nmecha
D. Calvert-Lewin
England
9 D. Calvert-Lewin

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 15, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England
Stadium :
Selhurst Park
Capacity :
25456
Attendance :
25155
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Thomas Bramall
Paul Tierney
Lee Betts
Matthew Wilkes

Statistics

Possession
CRY
61%
LEE
39%

Top Statistics

0 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 3
52 Dangerous attacks 45
67 Possession 33
8 Corners 3
11 Free kicks 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

11 Goal Kicks 7
27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
11 Dribble Attempts 9
3 Successful Dribbles 3
36 Successful Headers 28
22 Throwins 24
0 Penalties 1
6 Goal Attempts 6
80 Ball Safe 64
4 Substitutions 2
2 Injuries 0

Attacking

98 Attacks 88
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

79 Successful Passes Percentage 62
352 Successful Passes 137
63 Long Passes 54
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31
28 Successful Long Passes 17
448 Passes 221
5 Key Passes 5

Defensive

10 Tackles 16
2 Interceptions 6
61 Duels Won 57
3 Saves 0

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 14
4 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

12 Fouls 11
5 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Thomas Bramall

Starting XI ▼

44
Walter Benítez
Walter Benítez Goalkeeper
7.3
5
Maxence Lacroix
Maxence Lacroix Defender
7.93
23
Jaydee Canvot
Jaydee Canvot Defender
7.9
18
Daichi Kamada
Daichi Kamada
Midfielder80'
6.47
26
Chris Richards
Chris Richards Defender
7.54
3
Tyrick Mitchell
Tyrick Mitchell Midfielder
6.73
8
Jefferson Lerma
Jefferson Lerma Midfielder
7.24
11
Brennan Johnson
Brennan Johnson Midfielder
6.6
10
Yéremy Pino
Yéremy Pino
Midfielder80'
6.48
19
Will Hughes
Will Hughes (C) Midfielder
6.3
20
Adam Wharton
Adam Wharton
Midfielder60'
6.61
7
Ismaïla Sarr
Ismaïla Sarr Attacker
6.39
22
Jørgen Strand Larsen
Jørgen Strand Larsen Attacker
6.26
14
Jean-Philippe Mateta
Jean-Philippe Mateta
Attacker60'
6.59
29
Evann Guessand
Evann Guessand Attacker
6.33
Referee : Thomas Bramall

Starting XI ▼

26
Karl Darlow
Karl Darlow Goalkeeper
6.63
5
Pascal Struijk
Pascal Struijk Defender
7.01
6
Joe Rodon
Joe Rodon Defender
7.12
15
Jaka Bijol
Jaka Bijol Defender
7.22
3
Gabriel Gudmundsson
Gabriel Gudmundsson Midfielder
5.57
4
Ethan Ampadu
Ethan Ampadu (C) Midfielder
7.46
18
Anton Stach
Anton Stach Midfielder
7.24
24
James Justin
James Justin Midfielder
6.28
9
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Dominic Calvert-Lewin Attacker
6.5
11
Brenden Aaronson
Brenden Aaronson Attacker
6.41
2
Jayden Bogle
Jayden Bogle
Defender46'
6.69
14
Lukas Nmecha
Lukas Nmecha Attacker
6.54
44
Ilia Gruev
Ilia Gruev
Midfielder46'
6.58

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Daichi Kamada → Jaydee Canvot
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Yéremy Pino → Brennan Johnson
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Var
79'
Event
Adam Wharton → Will Hughes
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Jean-Philippe Mateta → Jørgen Strand Larsen
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Brennan Johnson
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
54'
46'
Event
Jayden Bogle → Brenden Aaronson
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Ilia Gruev → Lukas Nmecha
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+5'
Event
Gabriel Gudmundsson
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Oliver Glasner
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
45+3'
45+3'
Event
Daniel Farke
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
45'
Event
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
OffTarget
Event
Will Hughes
Handball / 3rd Yellowcard
44'
31'
Event
Jaka Bijol
Handball / 2nd Yellowcard
26'
Event
Gabriel Gudmundsson
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Crystal Palace after Joe Rodon allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
Evann Guessand from Crystal Palace committed a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Jean-Philippe Mateta of Crystal Palace took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Chris Richards, who delivered a cross.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Dominic Calvert-Lewin from Leeds United earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Joe Rodon from Leeds United has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Jean-Philippe Mateta from Crystal Palace committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score remaining Crystal Palace 0, Leeds United 0.
89
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play unfolds as Anton Stach from Leeds United takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Walter Benítez of Crystal Palace makes a great save, denying the attempt at the top center of the goal.
88
Update Update
Ethan Ampadu from Leeds United earned a free kick in an offensive position.
88
Update Update
Daichi Kamada committed a foul against Crystal Palace.
87
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! Maxence Lacroix of Crystal Palace heads the ball from just a few meters out, but it's narrowly off target. The assist came from Adam Wharton, who delivered a precise cross following a corner kick.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Crystal Palace after James Justin allowed the ball to go out.
85
Update Update
Offside call against Crystal Palace. Jean-Philippe Mateta has been caught offside.
84
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Yéremy Pino from Crystal Palace takes a shot with his right foot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
83
Update Update
Jayden Bogle commits a foul against Leeds United.
83
Update Update
Tyrick Mitchell from Crystal Palace was awarded a free kick on the left flank.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Crystal Palace: Yéremy Pino comes on to replace Brennan Johnson.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Crystal Palace: Daichi Kamada comes on to replace Jaydee Canvot.
80
Update Update
Leeds United has been called for offside. Dominic Calvert-Lewin is positioned beyond the last defender.
78
Update Update
Offside call against Crystal Palace. Jean-Philippe Mateta has been caught offside.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Crystal Palace after Jayden Bogle allowed the ball to go out.
77
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Adam Wharton from Crystal Palace attempts a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Crystal Palace after Jayden Bogle allowed the ball to go out.
74
Update Update
James Justin from Leeds United earned a free kick in the defensive area.
74
Update Update
Brennan Johnson committed a foul against Crystal Palace.
71
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Adam Wharton from Crystal Palace takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
71
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Maxence Lacroix from Crystal Palace fires a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Crystal Palace after Pascal Struijk allowed the ball to go out of play.
70
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was denied. Maxence Lacroix from Crystal Palace took a right-footed shot from over 35 yards out, but it was blocked. The assist came from Jaydee Canvot.
68
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
67
Update Update
Match pause - Crystal Palace.
67
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Jefferson Lerma from Crystal Palace.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Crystal Palace after a play that resulted in a deflection off Karl Darlow.
65
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
64
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Chris Richards from Crystal Palace.
62
Update Update
Dominic Calvert-Lewin from Leeds United earned a free kick in the defensive area.
62
Update Update
Maxence Lacroix from Crystal Palace committed a foul.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Crystal Palace: Adam Wharton replaces Will Hughes.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Crystal Palace: Jean-Philippe Mateta comes on to replace Jørgen Strand Larsen.
59
Update Update
Offside call against Leeds United. James Justin is positioned offside.
57
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! James Justin from Leeds United takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the bar.
56
Update Update
Jørgen Strand Larsen from Crystal Palace committed a foul.
56
Update Update
Ethan Ampadu from Leeds United earned a free kick in an offensive position.
55
Update Update
Opportunity wasted! Jaka Bijol from Leeds United attempted a header from the center of the box but failed to convert. The assist came from Anton Stach.
54
Update Update
Brennan Johnson committed a foul on a Crystal Palace player.
54
Update Update
Pascal Struijk from Leeds United earned a free kick in the attacking zone.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Brennan Johnson of Crystal Palace has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
51
Update Update
Offside call against Crystal Palace. Ismaïla Sarr has been caught offside.
49
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Evann Guessand from Crystal Palace took a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area.
47
Update Update
Offside call against Crystal Palace. Ismaïla Sarr has been caught offside.
45
Attempt Attempt
Penalty attempt unsuccessful. Dominic Calvert-Lewin from Leeds United took a right-footed shot that was near the target but went wide to the left.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with a score of Crystal Palace 0, Leeds United 0.
45
Update Update
Jaka Bijol from Leeds United committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Ismaïla Sarr from Crystal Palace has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
Gabriel Gudmundsson from Leeds United committed a foul.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gabriel Gudmundsson of Leeds United receives his second yellow card for committing a foul.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Ilia Gruev is coming on to replace Lukas Nmecha.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score tied at 0-0 between Crystal Palace and Leeds United.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Jayden Bogle comes on to replace Brenden Aaronson.
45
Update Update
Ismaïla Sarr from Crystal Palace earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
45
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Ismaïla Sarr from Crystal Palace.
45
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
44
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Will Hughes from Crystal Palace has been shown a yellow card for handling the ball.
43
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Jaka Bijol from Leeds United heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but it’s blocked. The assist came from Anton Stach, who delivered a cross.
43
Update Update
Will Hughes of Crystal Palace has given away a penalty due to a handball inside the penalty area.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Leeds United after a deflection off Jaydee Canvot.
42
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ethan Ampadu from Leeds United fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Brenden Aaronson.
39
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Leeds United after Brennan Johnson allowed the ball to go out.
37
Update Update
Offside call against Crystal Palace. Ismaïla Sarr has been flagged for being offside.
36
Update Update
Jefferson Lerma from Crystal Palace has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
36
Update Update
Brenden Aaronson of Leeds United committed a foul.
33
Update Update
Maxence Lacroix from Crystal Palace has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
33
Update Update
Dominic Calvert-Lewin committed a foul on a Leeds United player.
31
Update Update
Jaka Bijol from Leeds United committed a handball offense.
31
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jaka Bijol of Leeds United has been shown a yellow card for handling the ball.
31
Update Update
Brennan Johnson committed a foul against Crystal Palace.
31
Update Update
Lukas Nmecha from Leeds United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
29
Update Update
Anton Stach from Leeds United committed a foul.
29
Update Update
Will Hughes from Crystal Palace has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
27
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Maxence Lacroix of Crystal Palace heads the ball from the right side of the six-yard box, coming agonizingly close to finding the back of the net. The assist was provided by Chris Richards.
27
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Chris Richards from Crystal Palace takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
26
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gabriel Gudmundsson of Leeds United has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
26
Update Update
Gabriel Gudmundsson from Leeds United committed a foul.
26
Update Update
Brennan Johnson of Crystal Palace was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
25
Update Update
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Dominic Calvert-Lewin of Leeds United attempts a header from the center of the penalty area. However, his effort is expertly denied by Walter Benítez of Crystal Palace, who makes a save to his right. The assist comes from Anton Stach, who delivered a precise cross.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Leeds United after Maxence Lacroix allowed the ball to go out.
24
Update Update
Will Hughes from Crystal Palace was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
24
Update Update
Jaka Bijol from Leeds United committed a foul.
23
Update Update
Pascal Struijk from Leeds United was awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
23
Update Update
Gabriel Gudmundsson from Leeds United earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
22
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Jefferson Lerma from Crystal Palace attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area.
21
Update Update
Jefferson Lerma from Crystal Palace has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
21
Update Update
Brenden Aaronson from Leeds United committed a foul.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Crystal Palace after Jaka Bijol allowed the ball to go out.
20
Update Update
Another offensive push underway. Dominic Calvert-Lewin of Leeds United heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
18
Update Update
Evann Guessand from Crystal Palace committed a foul.
18
Update Update
Ethan Ampadu from Leeds United earned a free kick in the offensive zone.
15
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Brenden Aaronson from Leeds United took a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went just wide.
8
Update Update
Brennan Johnson committed a foul against Crystal Palace.
8
Update Update
Gabriel Gudmundsson from Leeds United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
6
Attempt Attempt
Brennan Johnson from Crystal Palace attempts a shot with his right foot from outside the penalty area, but it gets deflected.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Crystal Palace after Dominic Calvert-Lewin allowed it to go out.
5
Update Update
Pascal Struijk from Leeds United committed a foul.
5
Update Update
Evann Guessand from Crystal Palace earned a free kick in an offensive position.
1
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Brenden Aaronson from Leeds United takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Leeds United exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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