Crystal Palace vs Fiorentina Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe
Europa Conference League
Fiorentina
FIO
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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CONTEXT
The match is finished, with Crystal Palace defeating Fiorentina 3-0 in the first leg of their two-legged knockout tie. Crystal Palace led 2-0 at half-time and maintained control after the break to secure the clean-sheet win, establishing a strong aggregate advantage. Pre-match assessments had Crystal Palace as clear favorites at 60.3 percent, yet the result represented a significant deviation in their favor. The home side outperformed expectations by a wide margin, turning a projected competitive fixture into a one-sided affair. Possession was closely contested at 52 percent to 48 percent, but the underlying quality gap was stark. Crystal Palace posted 3.2 expected goals against Fiorentina’s 0.61, and the final score aligned closely with this xG profile. The outcome proved consistent with the pre-match projection, while efficiency remained in line with expectations throughout. No red cards were issued, allowing both teams to complete the contest with full squads and without disruptive disciplinary events.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Crystal Palace showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Match referee
D. Rumšas
Other match officials
A. Radiušas
1st Assistant
D. Sužiedėlis
2nd Assistant
M. Lukjančukas
4th Official
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Crystal Palace
Fiorentina
Movement
Changes since opening
Crystal Palace
Fiorentina
Team Power Ranking
i
86.53
76.09
Crystal Palace
Fiorentina
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Crystal Palace
Fiorentina
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Crystal Palace
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency









Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)








Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
















Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.




























PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- CRY had peak pressure around 94'.
- CRY started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
















Data last updated: 2026-04-10T13:36:37+00:00
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General Information
Next Match


Crystal Palace
vs
Newcastle United
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Sun, 12 Apr - 1:00 PM
Venue: Selhurst Park


Fiorentina
vs
Lazio
League: Serie A
Kickoff: Mon, 13 Apr - 6:45 PM
Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup


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Manager ▼


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Events
CONCLUSION
Crystal Palace vs Fiorentina preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
How We Build This Analysis
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Match Commentary