Cremonese vs Pisa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Giovanni Zini Sun, 10 May - 1:00 PM
Serie A
Cremonese USC
3 Winner 0
Pisa PIS
Full Time Sun, 10 May 1:00 PM
Round 36 Regular Season
David Okereke - 86'
Federico Bonazzoli - 51'
Jamie Vardy - 31'
Goal
|
|
Second yellow card Rosen Bozhinov 23'
Red Card Felipe Loyola 57'

CONTEXT

Cremonese secured a convincing 3-0 victory over Pisa, aligning with their status as the stronger team. The home side dominated possession at 77% to Pisa's 23%, establishing a 1-0 lead by halftime through disciplined build-up play. The second half saw Pisa reduced to nine men after two red cards, amplifying Cremonese's control and leading to two additional goals. This outcome reflected minimal structural deviation of 2.8% for Cremonese, with efficiency shifts in line with pre-match assessments. Market alignment held true, underscoring the predictability of the result despite the late disciplinary disruptions. Without xG data available, direct performance metrics against chance creation remain unquantified, but the possession disparity and red card events clearly dictated the flow. Cremonese capitalized efficiently on their numerical superiority post-red cards.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Cremonese exhibited minimal structural deviation of 2.8%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment confirmed as true.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: Two red cards to Pisa decisively altered game dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion identified in second half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

G. Ayroldi

Italy
Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

L. Rossi

1st Assistant

Italy

M. Rossi

2nd Assistant

Italy

G. Collu

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Serie A Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.6
Yellow cards / match 3.28
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.18
Cremonese M. Giampaolo
M. Giampaolo
VS
Pisa O. Hiljemark
O. Hiljemark
0.58
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.38
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lazio Rank: 81 L
Napoli Rank: 85 L
Torino Rank: 74 D
Cagliari Rank: 70 L
Bologna Rank: 78 L
Parma Rank: 72 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lecce Rank: 68 L
Parma Rank: 72 L
Genoa Rank: 74 L
Roma Rank: 86 L
Torino Rank: 75 L
Como Rank: 84 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 4 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Cremonese
97.15%
Draw
2.37%
Away Pisa
0.48%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
57.23
53.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cremonese
Pisa
Power Score
57.23
53.44
League Position
18
20
Global Rank
262
421

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cremonese — Opponent-weighted form score
Pisa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cremonese Pisa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Cremonese

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Pisa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cremonese ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pisa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
17.34
4.13
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
4.13
17.34
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Cremonese +1.43 Efficiency Index
vs
Pisa -1.43 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cremonese
Pisa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cremonese ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pisa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cremonese Pisa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cremonese Pisa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Cremonese
Pisa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Cremonese
vs
Pisa
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Cremonese Pisa
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Cremonese 0.15
Pisa 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Cremonese Pisa
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Cremonese 0.00
Pisa 0.04
Cremonese
Pisa
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • USC had peak pressure around 90'.
  • PIS started the game with stronger pressure.
USC Pressure PIS Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: USC reached the top pressure at 90' (84.23).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 12 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cremonese USC Home
12 matches
Pisa PIS Away
Match Record
2
Wins
6
4
Draws
4
6
Losses
2
Goals
15
Goals Scored
24
24
Goals Conceded
15
-9
Goal Difference
+9

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:03:07+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
E. Audero Mulyadi
Italy
1 E. Audero Mulyadi
F. Terracciano
Italy
24 F. Terracciano
M. Bianchetti
Italy
15 M. Bianchetti
S. Luperto
Substitution
Italy
5 S. Luperto
G. Pezzella
Substitution
Italy
3 G. Pezzella
T. Barbieri
Italy
4 T. Barbieri
A. Grassi
Italy
33 A. Grassi
Y. Maleh
Substitution
Morocco
29 Y. Maleh
J. Vandeputte
Substitution
Belgium
27 J. Vandeputte
F. Bonazzoli
Italy
90 F. Bonazzoli
J. Vardy
Substitution
England
10 J. Vardy
Pitch
A. Šemper
Croatia
1 A. Šemper
R. Bozhinov
Bulgaria
2 R. Bozhinov
A. Caracciolo
Italy
4 A. Caracciolo
S. Canestrelli
Italy
5 S. Canestrelli
M. Marcel Léris
Substitution
Algeria
7 M. Marcel Léris
F. Loyola
Chile
35 F. Loyola
E. Akinsanmiro
Substitution
Nigeria
14 E. Akinsanmiro
I. Touré
Germany
15 I. Touré
?. Vural
Substitution
Sweden
21 ?. Vural
S. Moreo
Substitution
Italy
32 S. Moreo
F. Stojilkovic
Substitution
Switzerland
81 F. Stojilkovic

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Giovanni Zini
Capacity :
16003
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Giovanni Ayroldi
Luigi Rossi
Marcello Rossi
Giuseppe Collu

Statistics

Possession
USC
72%
PIS
28%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
6 Shots 0
67 Dangerous attacks 19
77 Possession 23
7 Corners 1
12 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 4
0 Red Cards 2

Match Overview

68 Ball Safe 52
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
17 Throwins 10
11 Successful Headers 6
5 Goal Kicks 7
16 Dribble Attempts 9
8 Successful Dribbles 5
7 Goal Attempts 1
4 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 0
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

129 Attacks 57
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

18 Successful Long Passes 12
735 Passes 218
35 Long Passes 46
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 26
93 Successful Passes Percentage 74
683 Successful Passes 161
6 Key Passes 0

Defensive

0 Saves 2
6 Interceptions 8
43 Duels Won 37
12 Tackles 16

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 0
29 Total Crosses 7

Discipline

10 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Giovanni Ayroldi

Starting XI ▼

1
Emil Audero
Emil Audero Goalkeeper
3
Giuseppe Pezzella
Giuseppe Pezzella Defender
7
Alessio Zerbin
Alessio Zerbin
Attacker59'
5
Sebastiano Luperto
Sebastiano Luperto Defender
55
Francesco Folino
Francesco Folino
Defender85'
15
Matteo Bianchetti
Matteo Bianchetti Defender
24
Filippo Terracciano
Filippo Terracciano Defender
4
Tommaso Barbieri
Tommaso Barbieri Midfielder
27
Jari Vandeputte
Jari Vandeputte Midfielder
77
David Okereke
David Okereke
Attacker72'
29
Youssef Maleh
Youssef Maleh Midfielder
2
Morten Thorsby
Morten Thorsby
Midfielder59'
33
Alberto Grassi
Alberto Grassi Midfielder
10
Jamie Vardy
Jamie Vardy Attacker
99
Antonio Sanabria
Antonio Sanabria
Attacker72'
90
Federico Bonazzoli
Federico Bonazzoli Attacker
Referee : Giovanni Ayroldi

Starting XI ▼

1
Adrian Semper
Adrian Semper Goalkeeper
2
Rosen Bozhinov
Rosen Bozhinov Defender
4
Antonio Caracciolo
Antonio Caracciolo Defender
5
Simone Canestrelli
Simone Canestrelli Defender
7
Mehdi Léris
Mehdi Léris Midfielder
3
Samuele Angori
Samuele Angori
Defender37'
14
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro Midfielder
36
Gabriele Piccinini
Gabriele Piccinini
Midfielder72'
15
Idrissa Touré
Idrissa Touré Midfielder
35
Felipe Loyola
Felipe Loyola Midfielder
21
İsak Vural
İsak Vural Attacker
8
Malthe Højholt
Malthe Højholt
Midfielder65'
32
Stefano Moreo
Stefano Moreo Attacker
33
Arturo Calabresi
Arturo Calabresi
Defender37'
81
Filip Stojilkovic
Filip Stojilkovic Attacker
9
Henrik Meister
Henrik Meister
Attacker65'

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Malthe Højholt
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
David Okereke
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
86'
Event
Francesco Folino → Sebastiano Luperto
10th Substitution
85'
Event
David Okereke → Jari Vandeputte
7th Substitution
72'
Event
Antonio Sanabria → Jamie Vardy
9th Substitution
72'
72'
Event
Gabriele Piccinini → Ebenezer Akinsanmiro
8th Substitution
65'
Event
Malthe Højholt → İsak Vural
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Henrik Meister → Filip Stojilkovic
6th Substitution
Event
Alessio Zerbin → Giuseppe Pezzella
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Morten Thorsby → Youssef Maleh
3rd Substitution
59'
57'
Event
Felipe Loyola
Foul / 1st Redcard
Event
Federico Bonazzoli
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
51'
49'
Event
Arturo Calabresi
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
37'
Event
Samuele Angori → Mehdi Léris
1st Substitution
37'
Event
Arturo Calabresi → Stefano Moreo
2nd Substitution
Event
Jamie Vardy
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
31'
23'
Event
Rosen Bozhinov
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
16'
Event
Rosen Bozhinov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Malthe Hojholt receives a yellow card.
86
Attempt Attempt
David Okereke takes a right-footed shot and scores.
85
Update Update
Francesco Folino replaces Sebastiano Luperto.
84
Attempt Attempt
David Okereke takes a right-footed shot but misses.
72
Update Update
Gabriele Piccinini is on, and Ebenezer Akinsanmiro is off.
72
Substitution Substitution
David Okereke is substituted for Jari Vandeputte.
72
Update Update
Antonio Sanabria replaces Jamie Vardy.
65
Update Update
Malthe Hojholt comes on for Isak Vural.
65
Update Update
Henrik Meister is on, and Filip Stojilkovic is off.
59
Update Update
Alessio Zerbin comes on for Giuseppe Pezzella.
59
Update Update
Morten Thorsby is on, and Tommaso Barbieri is off.
57
Red Card Red Card Important
Felipe Ignacio Loyola Olea receives a red card.
56
Attempt Attempt
Jari Vandeputte takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
51
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Federico Bonazzoli with his left foot results in a goal.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Arturo Calabresi.
45
Attempt Attempt
Federico Bonazzoli takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Bianchetti attempts a header but misses the shot.
43
Attempt Attempt
Alberto Grassi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Youssef Maleh takes a left-footed shot but misses.
37
Update Update
Arturo Calabresi comes on for Stefano Moreo.
37
Update Update
Samuele Angori comes on for Mehdi Leris.
31
Attempt Attempt
Jamie Vardy scores with a left-footed shot.
24
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rosen Bozhinov receives a second yellow card.
16
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Rosen Bozhinov.
7
Attempt Attempt
Stefano Moreo takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Cremonese's 3-0 win over Pisa exemplified dominance through sustained possession and opportunistic finishing, particularly after Pisa's two red cards shifted the balance irreversibly. The minimal 2.8% structural deviation and aligned market expectations highlight a performance true to form, with efficiency holding steady. Absent xG metrics, the result's validity rests on observable control—77% possession and halftime lead—and event-driven distortions. This outcome reinforces Cremonese's superiority, though Pisa's discipline lapse proved costly. Future matches may test Cremonese without such advantages.

Cremonese vs Pisa preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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