Cremonese vs Lazio Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Giovanni Zini Mon, 4 May - 4:30 PM
Serie A
Cremonese USC
1 Winner 2
Lazio LAZ
Full Time Mon, 4 May 4:30 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Federico Bonazzoli - 29'
Goal
|
Goal
Tijjani Noslin - 90+2'
Gustav Isaksen - 53'

CONTEXT

In a gripping Serie A encounter, Cremonese hosted Lazio at their home ground, taking an early lead with a 1-0 advantage at halftime through sharp attacking play despite holding only 42% possession. Lazio, the stronger side on paper, dominated the ball with 58% control and mounted a resolute second-half comeback to secure a 1-2 victory. Cremonese's defense held firm initially, but Lazio's quality shone through with two well-taken goals that flipped the script. The match showcased tactical discipline from the visitors, who overturned the deficit without needing drastic adjustments. No red cards disrupted the flow, allowing both teams to express themselves fully. This result underscores Lazio's resilience and ability to capitalize on sustained pressure, extending their strong form against underdogs. Cremonese fought valiantly but couldn't withstand the relentless away assault.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Structural deviation was minimal at 3.9% in favor of Lazio.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment confirmed as fully achieved.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without underlying metrics.
  • Event impact: No notable event impacts influenced the final outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion absent with zero dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Chiffi

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

P. Dei Giudici

1st Assistant

Italy

A. Calzavara

4th Official

Italy

C. Rossi

2nd Assistant

Italy

League averages

Serie A Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.47
Yellow cards / match 3.12
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.17
Cremonese M. Giampaolo
M. Giampaolo
VS
Lazio M. Sarri
M. Sarri
0.58
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Napoli Rank: 85 L
Torino Rank: 74 D
Cagliari Rank: 69 L
Bologna Rank: 78 L
Parma Rank: 72 W
Fiorentina Rank: 77 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Udinese Rank: 75 D
Napoli Rank: 86 W
Fiorentina Rank: 76 L
Parma Rank: 72 D
Bologna Rank: 78 W
AC Milan Rank: 84 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Cremonese
0.19%
Draw
3.73%
Away Lazio
96.07%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.42
81.29
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cremonese
Lazio
Power Score
56.42
81.29
League Position
18
8
Global Rank
281
52

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cremonese — Opponent-weighted form score
Lazio — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cremonese Lazio

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Cremonese

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lazio

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cremonese ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lazio
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.12
17.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.50
35.12
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Cremonese +1.89 Efficiency Index
vs
Lazio -1.89 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cremonese
Lazio
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cremonese ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lazio
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cremonese Lazio
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cremonese Lazio
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Cremonese
Lazio
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Cremonese
vs
Lazio
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Cremonese Lazio
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Cremonese 0.37
Lazio 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Cremonese Lazio
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Cremonese 0.05
Lazio 0.03
Cremonese
Lazio
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LAZ had peak pressure around 7'.
  • LAZ started the game with stronger pressure.
USC Pressure LAZ Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LAZ reached the top pressure at 7' (69.46).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cremonese USC Home
4 matches
Lazio LAZ Away
Match Record
0
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
2
-9
Goal Difference
+9

Data last updated: 2026-05-05T00:02:18+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
E. Audero Mulyadi
Italy
1 E. Audero Mulyadi
F. Terracciano
Italy
24 F. Terracciano
F. Baschirotto
Substitution
Italy
6 F. Baschirotto
S. Luperto
Italy
5 S. Luperto
G. Pezzella
Italy
3 G. Pezzella
R. Floriani
Substitution
Italy
22 R. Floriani
A. Grassi
Substitution
Italy
33 A. Grassi
Y. Maleh
Morocco
29 Y. Maleh
A. Zerbin
Substitution
Italy
7 A. Zerbin
F. Bonazzoli
Italy
90 F. Bonazzoli
A. Sanabria Ayala
Substitution
Paraguay
99 A. Sanabria Ayala
Pitch
E. Motta
Italy
40 E. Motta
N. Varela Tavares
Portugal
17 N. Varela Tavares
O. Nielsen
Denmark
25 O. Nielsen
A. Romagnoli
Italy
13 A. Romagnoli
A. Marušić
Montenegro
77 A. Marušić
K. Taylor
Substitution
Netherlands
24 K. Taylor
P. Gabarrón Gil
Substitution
Spain
4 P. Gabarrón Gil
T. Bašić
Croatia
26 T. Bašić
M. Zaccagni
Substitution
Italy
10 M. Zaccagni
D. Maldini
Substitution
Italy
27 D. Maldini
G. Isaksen
Substitution
Denmark
18 G. Isaksen

General Information

Date & Time :
May 04, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Giovanni Zini
Capacity :
16003
Attendance :
10618
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Daniele Chiffi
Pietro Dei Giudici
Andrea Calzavara
Christian Rossi

Statistics

Possession
USC
43%
LAZ
57%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 2
35 Dangerous attacks 43
42 Possession 58
3 Corners 3
13 Free kicks 16
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
20 Throwins 24
2 Dribble Attempts 6
1 Successful Dribbles 3
10 Successful Headers 16
75 Ball Safe 85
6 Goal Attempts 5
1 Assists 2
5 Goal Kicks 3
2 Injuries 2
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

71 Attacks 108
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

375 Successful Passes 569
445 Passes 629
5 Successful Long Passes 22
84 Successful Passes Percentage 90
47 Long Passes 40
11 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55
6 Key Passes 8

Defensive

38 Duels Won 38
14 Tackles 3
12 Interceptions 5
1 Saves 4

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 15
5 Accurate Crosses 10

Discipline

16 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Daniele Chiffi

Starting XI ▼

1
Emil Audero
Emil Audero Goalkeeper
7.03
3
Giuseppe Pezzella
Giuseppe Pezzella Defender
6.65
5
Sebastiano Luperto
Sebastiano Luperto Defender
6.79
6
Federico Baschirotto
Federico Baschirotto Defender
6.8
15
Matteo Bianchetti
Matteo Bianchetti
Defender21'
6.72
24
Filippo Terracciano
Filippo Terracciano Defender
6.84
7
Alessio Zerbin
Alessio Zerbin Midfielder
6.56
32
Martín Payero
Martín Payero
Midfielder61'
6.6
22
Romano Floriani Mussolini
Romano Floriani Mussolini Midfielder
6.57
4
Tommaso Barbieri
Tommaso Barbieri
Defender68'
6.64
29
Youssef Maleh
Youssef Maleh Midfielder
6.63
33
Alberto Grassi
Alberto Grassi Midfielder
6.64
38
Warren Bondo
Warren Bondo
Midfielder61'
6.54
90
Federico Bonazzoli
Federico Bonazzoli Attacker
6.97
99
Antonio Sanabria
Antonio Sanabria Attacker
6.58
10
Jamie Vardy
Jamie Vardy
Attacker61'
6.8
Referee : Daniele Chiffi

Starting XI ▼

40
Edoardo Motta
Edoardo Motta Goalkeeper
6.9
13
Alessio Romagnoli
Alessio Romagnoli Defender
6.89
17
Nuno Tavares
Nuno Tavares Defender
6.86
25
Oliver Provstgaard
Oliver Provstgaard Defender
6.8
77
Adam Marusic
Adam Marusic Defender
6.83
4
Patric
Patric Midfielder
6.72
6
Nicolò Rovella
Nicolò Rovella
Midfielder46'
7.09
24
Kenneth Taylor
Kenneth Taylor Midfielder
6.97
7
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
Midfielder71'
6.61
26
Toma Bašić
Toma Bašić Midfielder
7.03
10
Mattia Zaccagni
Mattia Zaccagni Attacker
6.99
9
Pedro
Pedro
Attacker60'
6.79
18
Gustav Isaksen
Gustav Isaksen Attacker
6.79
19
Boulaye Dia
Boulaye Dia
Attacker81'
6.62
27
Daniel Maldini
Daniel Maldini Attacker
6.69
14
Tijjani Noslin
Tijjani Noslin
Attacker46'
6.8

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Tijjani Noslin
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
88'
Event
Nuno Tavares
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
81'
Event
Boulaye Dia → Gustav Isaksen
10th Substitution
Event
Tommaso Barbieri
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
76'
71'
Event
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru → Kenneth Taylor
9th Substitution
Event
Tommaso Barbieri → Romano Floriani Mussolini
8th Substitution
68'
Event
Warren Bondo → Alberto Grassi
5th Substitution
61'
Event
Martín Payero → Alessio Zerbin
6th Substitution
61'
Event
Jamie Vardy → Antonio Sanabria
7th Substitution
61'
60'
Event
Pedro → Mattia Zaccagni 
4th Substitution
53'
Event
Gustav Isaksen
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
46'
Event
Tijjani Noslin → Daniel Maldini
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Nicolò Rovella  → Patric 
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
40'
Event
Oliver Provstgaard
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Federico Bonazzoli
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
29'
Event
Matteo Bianchetti → Federico Baschirotto
1st Substitution
21'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Warren Bondo takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tijjani Noslin takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Barbieri takes a shot with his head, but it is blocked.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nuno Tavares receives a yellow card.
82
Attempt Attempt
Warren Bondo takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
81
Update Update
Boulaye Dia comes on for Gustav Isaksen.
78
Attempt Attempt
Martin Ismael Payero takes a right-footed shot but misses.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tommaso Barbieri receives a yellow card.
73
Attempt Attempt
Giuseppe Pezzella takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
71
Update Update
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru comes on for Kenneth Taylor.
68
Update Update
Tommaso Barbieri comes on for Romano Floriani.
66
Attempt Attempt
Jamie Vardy takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
66
Update Update
Jamie Vardy takes a header, but it misses the target.
64
Attempt Attempt
Federico Bonazzoli takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
61
Update Update
Jamie Vardy is on, and Antonio Sanabria is off.
61
Update Update
Martin Ismael Payero is on, and Alessio Zerbin is off.
61
Update Update
Warren Bondo is on, and Alberto Grassi is off.
60
Update Update
Pedro Rodriguez Ledesma (Pedrito) comes on for Mattia Zaccagni.
53
Update Update
Goal! Gustav Isaksen scores, making it 1-1.
53
Attempt Attempt
Gustav Isaksen scores with a left-footed shot.
52
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Sanabria takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
50
Attempt Attempt
Alessio Romagnoli's header is saved.
46
Update Update
Tijjani Noslin comes on for Daniel Maldini.
46
Attempt Attempt
Youssef Maleh takes a left-footed shot but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Federico Bonazzoli takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
40
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Oliver Nielsen.
39
Attempt Attempt
Alessio Zerbin takes a left-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Oliver Nielsen takes a header shot but misses.
29
Attempt Attempt
Federico Bonazzoli scores with a left-footed shot.
22
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Patricio Gabarron Gil with his right foot, but it misses the target.
21
Update Update
Matteo Bianchetti replaces Federico Baschirotto.
15
Attempt Attempt
Gustav Isaksen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Oliver Nielsen takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
3
Attempt Attempt
Gustav Isaksen takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Daniele Chiffi.

CONCLUSION

Lazio's 1-2 triumph over Cremonese validates their status as the superior outfit, overturning a halftime deficit through superior possession and clinical finishing. Cremonese's early promise faded against Lazio's sustained dominance, highlighting the visitors' tactical maturity in the second period. With minimal structural deviations and efficiencies aligning as anticipated, this outcome reinforces pre-match assessments without surprises from cards or key events. Lazio's away win bolsters their campaign momentum, while Cremonese must regroup from a narrow but telling defeat. The match exemplifies how quality prevails when pressure mounts, setting a positive tone for Lazio's upcoming fixtures.

Cremonese vs Lazio preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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