Cremonese vs Como Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Giovanni Zini Sun, 24 May - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Cremonese USC
1 Winner 4
Como COM
Full Time Sun, 24 May 6:45 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
Federico Bonazzoli - 55' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Lucas Da Cunha  - 81', 74' (P)
Anastasios Douvikas  - 51'
Jesús Rodríguez - 36'
Milan Djuric 71' Red Card
Alberto Grassi 71' Red Card
David Okereke 72' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Cremonese hosted Como in a match that concluded with a 1-4 final score. Como took a 0-1 lead into halftime. Cremonese held 30 percent possession while Como controlled 70 percent. Three red cards were issued to Cremonese players during the contest, leaving the home side severely depleted. Como maintained their advantage after the dismissals and added further goals in the second half. The stronger team delivered a dominant performance that aligned with pre-match expectations. The significant deviation observed favored Como throughout the encounter. The result reflected the impact of numerical disadvantage on the home side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Cremonese 1-4 Como. Como showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the stronger team's performance.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable to determine alignment.
  • Market alignment: The final result proved aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals figures were recorded for either side.
  • Event impact: Three red cards issued to Cremonese altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion heavily influenced second half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. Maresca

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Fontemurato

2nd Assistant

Italy

A. Calzavara

4th Official

Italy

D. Cecconi

1st Assistant

Italy

League averages

Serie A Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.86
Yellow cards / match 3.33
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.17
Cremonese M. Giampaolo
M. Giampaolo
VS
Como F. Fàbregas i Soler
F. Fàbregas i Soler
0.8
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.92
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Udinese Rank: 77 W
Pisa Rank: 63 W
Lazio Rank: 81 L
Napoli Rank: 85 L
Torino Rank: 74 D
Cagliari Rank: 71 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Parma Rank: 72 W
Hellas Verona Rank: 64 W
Napoli Rank: 86 D
Genoa Rank: 75 W
Sassuolo Rank: 75 L
Inter Rank: 91 L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Cremonese
17.1%
Draw
22.05%
Away Como
60.86%

Movement

Changes since opening
Cremonese
+16.86%
Draw
+20.13%
Como
-36.98%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
57.95
84.25
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cremonese
Como
Power Score
57.95
84.25
League Position
18
5
Global Rank
241
38

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cremonese — Opponent-weighted form score
Como — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cremonese Como

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Cremonese

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Como

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cremonese ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Como
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cremonese Como
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cremonese Como
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Cremonese
Como
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Cremonese
vs
Como
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Cremonese Como
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Cremonese 0.00
Como 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Cremonese Como
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Cremonese 0.00
Como 0.00
Cremonese
Como
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • COM had peak pressure around 83'.
  • COM started the game with stronger pressure.
USC Pressure COM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: COM reached the top pressure at 83' (97.10).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cremonese USC Home
5 matches
Como COM Away
Match Record
4
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
4
Goals
10
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
10
+6
Goal Difference
-6

Data last updated: 2026-05-24T18:30:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
E. Audero Mulyadi
Italy
1 E. Audero Mulyadi
F. Terracciano
Substitution
Italy
24 F. Terracciano
M. Bianchetti
Italy
15 M. Bianchetti
S. Luperto
Italy
5 S. Luperto
G. Pezzella
Italy
3 G. Pezzella
A. Zerbin
Substitution
Italy
7 A. Zerbin
M. Thorsby
Substitution
Norway
2 M. Thorsby
A. Grassi
Italy
33 A. Grassi
Y. Maleh
Substitution
Morocco
29 Y. Maleh
F. Bonazzoli
Substitution
Italy
90 F. Bonazzoli
J. Vardy
England
10 J. Vardy
Pitch
J. Butez
France
1 J. Butez
A. Moreno Pérez
Substitution
Spain
18 A. Moreno Pérez
M. Kempf
Germany
2 M. Kempf
J. Naveros
Spain
14 J. Naveros
I. Smolčić
Croatia
28 I. Smolčić
M. Perrone
Argentina
23 M. Perrone
L. Da Cunha
France
33 L. Da Cunha
J. Rodríguez Caraballo
Substitution
Spain
17 J. Rodríguez Caraballo
M. Baturina
Substitution
Croatia
20 M. Baturina
A. Diao Diaoune
Substitution
Senegal
38 A. Diao Diaoune
A. Douvikas
Substitution
Greece
11 A. Douvikas

General Information

Date & Time :
May 24, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Giovanni Zini
Capacity :
16003
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Fabio Maresca
Domenico Fontemurato
Andrea Calzavara
Dario Cecconi

Statistics

Possession
USC
33%
COM
67%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 4
1 Big Chances Created 4
4 Shots 12
18 Dangerous attacks 40
30 Possession 70
2 Corners 4
11 Free kicks 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
3 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

3 Successful Dribbles 5
10 Successful Headers 13
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
13 Throwins 10
7 Dribble Attempts 11
8 Goal Kicks 7
5 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 1
0 Assists 2
1 Injuries 0
58 Ball Safe 69
2 Goal Attempts 6

Attacking

42 Attacks 102
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

68 Successful Passes Percentage 89
141 Successful Passes 453
207 Passes 509
52 Long Passes 42
2 Key Passes 10
13 Successful Long Passes 23
25 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55

Defensive

11 Tackles 10
35 Duels Won 41
4 Interceptions 3
2 Saves 0

Build-up

7 Total Crosses 12
1 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

14 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Fabio Maresca

Starting XI ▼

1
Emil Audero
Emil Audero Goalkeeper
7
3
Giuseppe Pezzella
Giuseppe Pezzella Defender
6.65
5
Sebastiano Luperto
Sebastiano Luperto Defender
6.76
15
Matteo Bianchetti
Matteo Bianchetti Defender
6.75
24
Filippo Terracciano
Filippo Terracciano Defender
6.83
4
Tommaso Barbieri
Tommaso Barbieri
83'
6.62
2
Morten Thorsby
Morten Thorsby Midfielder
6.72
18
Michele Collocolo
Michele Collocolo
46'
6.54
7
Alessio Zerbin
Alessio Zerbin Midfielder
6.57
22
Romano Floriani Mussolini
Romano Floriani Mussolini
46'
6.56
29
Youssef Maleh
Youssef Maleh Midfielder
6.58
27
Jari Vandeputte
Jari Vandeputte
16'
6.89
33
Alberto Grassi
Alberto Grassi Midfielder
6.7
10
Jamie Vardy
Jamie Vardy Attacker
6.83
90
Federico Bonazzoli
Federico Bonazzoli Attacker
7.02
21
Simone Lottici Tessadri
Simone Lottici Tessadri
85'
Referee : Fabio Maresca

Starting XI ▼

1
Jean Butez
Jean Butez Goalkeeper
7.09
2
Marc Oliver Kempf
Marc Oliver Kempf Defender
6.89
14
Jacobo Ramón
Jacobo Ramón Defender
7.05
18
Alberto Moreno
Alberto Moreno Defender
6.92
77
Ignace Van der Brempt
Ignace Van der Brempt
76'
6.62
28
Ivan Smolcic
Ivan Smolcic Defender
6.86
20
Martin Baturina
Martin Baturina Midfielder
7.16
8
Sergi Roberto
Sergi Roberto
83'
6.62
23
Máximo Perrone
Máximo Perrone Midfielder
6.99
33
Lucas Da Cunha
Lucas Da Cunha Midfielder
2
7.09
11
Anastasios Douvikas
Anastasios Douvikas Attacker
6.84
7
Álvaro Morata
Álvaro Morata
83'
6.61
17
Jesús Rodríguez
Jesús Rodríguez Attacker
6.87
6
Maxence Caqueret
Maxence Caqueret
64'
6.87
38
Assane Diao
Assane Diao Attacker
6.71
31
Mërgim Vojvoda
Mërgim Vojvoda
83'
6.79

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Simone Lottici Tessadri → Federico Bonazzoli
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Tommaso Barbieri → Filippo Terracciano
6th Substitution
83'
83'
Event
Álvaro Morata → Anastasios Douvikas 
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Mërgim Vojvoda → Assane Diao 
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Sergi Roberto → Martin Baturina
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Lucas Da Cunha 
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Jari Vandeputte
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
76'
76'
Event
Ignace Van der Brempt → Alberto Moreno
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Lucas Da Cunha 
Left foot shot / 2nd Penalty
Event
David Okereke
Argument / 3rd Redcard
72'
Event
Milan Djuric
Argument / 2nd Redcard
71'
Event
Matteo Bianchetti
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
71'
Event
Alberto Grassi
Argument / 1st Redcard
71'
68'
Event
Anastasios Douvikas 
Penalty awarded
64'
Event
Maxence Caqueret → Jesús Rodríguez
4th Substitution
Event
Jamie Vardy
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
61'
Event
Federico Bonazzoli
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
55'
51'
Event
Anastasios Douvikas 
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
49'
Event
Alberto Moreno
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Michele Collocolo → Morten Thorsby
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Romano Floriani Mussolini → Alessio Zerbin
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
36'
Event
Jesús Rodríguez
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Morten Thorsby
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
21'
20'
Event
Jesús Rodríguez
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Jari Vandeputte → Youssef Maleh
1st Substitution
16'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Simone Lottici Tessadri takes a right-footed shot but misses.
88
Attempt Attempt
Sebastiano Luperto takes a left-footed shot but misses.
88
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Barbieri takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
85
Update Update
Simone Lottici Tessadri comes on for Federico Bonazzoli.
85
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Barbieri takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Update Update
Mergim Vojvoda comes on for Assane Diao.
83
Update Update
Sergi Roberto Carnicer comes on for Martin Baturina.
83
Update Update
Alvaro Morata is on, and Anastasios Douvikas is off.
83
Update Update
Tommaso Barbieri comes on for Filippo Terracciano.
81
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Da Cunha takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
78
Attempt Attempt
Assane Diao takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
77
Attempt Attempt
Assane Diao's left-footed shot is saved.
76
Update Update
Ignace Van Der Brempt comes on for Alberto Moreno.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jari Vandeputte receives a yellow card.
74
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Lucas Da Cunha scores, making it 3 penalties for the opposing team.
72
Red Card Red Card Important
Alberto Grassi receives a red card.
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matteo Bianchetti receives a yellow card.
68
Update Update
VAR decision confirms a penalty awarded to Anastasios Douvikas.
65
Attempt Attempt
Maximo Perrone's right-footed shot is blocked.
65
Attempt Attempt
Anastasios Douvikas takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
64
Update Update
Maxence Caqueret is on, and Jesus Rodriguez is off.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jamie Vardy receives a yellow card.
57
Attempt Attempt
Federico Bonazzoli takes a left-footed shot but misses.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Federico Bonazzoli scores, making it 1-2.
55
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Federico Bonazzoli with his left foot results in a goal.
51
Attempt Attempt
Anastasios Douvikas takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alberto Moreno receives a yellow card.
46
Update Update
Romano Floriani replaces Alessio Zerbin.
46
Substitution Substitution
Morten Thorsby is substituted off for Michele Collocolo.
43
Attempt Attempt
Anastasios Douvikas takes a right-footed shot but misses.
36
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jesus Rodriguez scores, making it 0-1.
36
Attempt Attempt
Anastasios Douvikas takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Rodriguez scores with a right-footed shot.
35
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Da Cunha's left-footed shot is blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Da Cunha takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
Jacobo Ramon Naveros attempts a header but misses the shot.
30
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Da Cunha's left-footed shot is blocked.
24
Attempt Attempt
Assane Diao takes a shot with his head but misses.
21
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Morten Thorsby receives a yellow card.
20
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jesus Rodriguez receives a yellow card.
16
Update Update
Jari Vandeputte replaces Youssef Maleh.
12
Attempt Attempt
Assane Diao's right-footed shot is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Como secured a convincing 1-4 victory over Cremonese after establishing an early advantage. The away side capitalized on three red cards shown to the home team which disrupted any potential recovery. Possession dominance by Como supported their control of the game from start to finish. The halftime score of 0-1 set the tone for continued pressure in the second period. Cremonese struggled to respond effectively once reduced in numbers. The outcome highlighted the decisive role of disciplinary events in shaping the final result. Como's performance remained consistent with their status as the stronger side throughout the fixture.

Cremonese vs Como preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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