Coventry City vs Derby County Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
The Coventry Building Society Arena Fri, 3 Apr - 7:00 PM
Championship
Coventry City CVC
3 Winner 2
Derby County DRB
Full Time Fri, 3 Apr 7:00 PM
Round 40 Regular Season
Jack Rudoni - 80', 68'
Frank Onyeka - 13'
Goal
|
Goal
Ben Brereton Díaz - 77' (P), 38'

CONTEXT

The match has finished with Coventry City securing a 3-1 victory over Derby County. Despite being deadlocked at 1-1 at half-time, the home side controlled the scoreline in the second half to claim the win. The run of play was highly competitive, with Coventry holding a narrow possession advantage of 51% compared to Derby County's 49%. The game remained strictly 11-versus-11 throughout, as no red cards were issued to alter the match flow. Pre-match expectations firmly favored the home side. Coventry City entered the contest with a 59% implied win probability, alongside a 23.6% chance of a draw and a 17.5% chance for a Derby victory. The final outcome fully aligned with this pre-match market. However, Coventry City exceeded baseline projections, registering a significant positive performance deviation of 41% to put the game away. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture to measure chance quality, Coventry City's overall efficiency shift was ultimately in line with expectations. They demonstrated a positive efficiency rating of 0.8976, while Derby County produced an inverse negative rating, cementing a predictable yet statistically robust home victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Coventry City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

T. Nield

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Hudson

1st Assistant

C. Brown

2nd Assistant

J. Smith

4th Official

Coventry City F. Lampard
F. Lampard
VS
Derby County J. Eustace
J. Eustace
2.06
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.71
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Swansea City Rank: 68 W
Southampton Rank: 73 L
Preston North End Rank: 65 W
Bristol City Rank: 69 W
Stoke City Rank: 68 W
Sheffield United Rank: 71 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Birmingham City Rank: 70 W
Portsmouth Rank: 66 W
Millwall Rank: 74 L
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: 52 W
Blackburn Rovers Rank: 67 W
Hull City Rank: 71 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 7 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Coventry City
58.96%
Draw
23.58%
Away Derby County
17.45%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.45
69.93
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Coventry City
Derby County
Power Score
77.45
69.93
League Position
1
8
Global Rank
78
196

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Coventry City — Opponent-weighted form score
Derby County — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Coventry City Derby County

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Coventry City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Derby County

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Coventry City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Derby County
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.90
20.41
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.41
29.90
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Coventry City +0.97 Efficiency Index
vs
Derby County -0.97 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Coventry City
Derby County
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Coventry City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Derby County
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Coventry City Derby County
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Coventry City Derby County
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Coventry City
Derby County
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Coventry City
vs
Derby County
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Coventry City Derby County
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Coventry City 0.29
Derby County 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Coventry City Derby County
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Coventry City 0.05
Derby County 0.07
Coventry City
Derby County
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Coventry City CVC Home
22 matches
Derby County DRB Away
Match Record
7
Wins
8
7
Draws
7
8
Losses
7
Goals
31
Goals Scored
26
26
Goals Conceded
31
+5
Goal Difference
-5

Data last updated: 2026-04-04T00:03:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
C. Rushworth
England
19 C. Rushworth
M. van Ewijk
Netherlands
27 M. van Ewijk
B. Thomas
England
4 B. Thomas
L. Kitching
England
15 L. Kitching
J. Dasilva
England
3 J. Dasilva
M. Grimes
Substitution
England
6 M. Grimes
O. Frank
Nigeria
16 O. Frank
T. Sakamoto
Japan
7 T. Sakamoto
J. Eccles
Substitution
England
28 J. Eccles
R. Esse
Substitution
England
14 R. Esse
E. Simms
Substitution
England
9 E. Simms
Pitch
R. O'Donnell
England
12 R. O'Donnell
D. Murkin
England
2 D. Murkin
M. Clarke
England
5 M. Clarke
D. Sanderson
England
28 D. Sanderson
J. Ward
England
23 J. Ward
D. Ozoh
Substitution
England
18 D. Ozoh
L. Travis
England
27 L. Travis
J. Banel
Substitution
Netherlands
34 J. Banel
B. Clark
England
42 B. Clark
B. Brereton
Chile
25 B. Brereton
C. Morris
Substitution
England
9 C. Morris

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 03, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 40 · Regular Season
Stadium :
The Coventry Building Society Arena
Capacity :
32609
Attendance :
31349
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ , Clear
Referees :
Tom Nield
Shaun Hudson
Connor Brown
Joshua Smith

Statistics

Possession
CVC
50%
DRB
50%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 3
2 Shots 3
45 Dangerous attacks 40
51 Possession 49
6 Corners 1
15 Free kicks 11
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

21 Successful Headers 10
15 Throwins 28
2 Assists 1
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 71
7 Goal Kicks 7
11 Dribble Attempts 7
4 Successful Dribbles 5
60 Ball Safe 65
1 Injuries 0
9 Goal Attempts 4
4 Substitutions 3
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

91 Attacks 110
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

10 Key Passes 4
313 Successful Passes 311
407 Passes 397
77 Successful Passes Percentage 78
52 Long Passes 48
11 Successful Long Passes 15
21 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31

Defensive

16 Tackles 17
1 Saves 4
55 Duels Won 44
8 Interceptions 5

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 20
2 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

12 Fouls 15
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Tom Nield

Starting XI ▼

19
Carl Rushworth
Carl Rushworth Goalkeeper
3
Jay Dasilva
Jay Dasilva Defender
4
Bobby Thomas
Bobby Thomas Defender
15
Liam Kitching
Liam Kitching Defender
27
Milan van Ewijk
Milan van Ewijk Defender
6
Matt Grimes
Matt Grimes Midfielder
29
Victor Torp
Victor Torp
Midfielder90'
7
Tatsuhiro Sakamoto
Tatsuhiro Sakamoto Midfielder
14
Romain Esse
Romain Esse Midfielder
10
Ephron Mason-Clark
Ephron Mason-Clark
Attacker62'
16
Frank Onyeka
Frank Onyeka Midfielder
28
Josh Eccles
Josh Eccles Midfielder
5
Jack Rudoni
Jack Rudoni
Midfielder63'
2
9
Ellis Simms
Ellis Simms Attacker
11
Haji Wright
Haji Wright
Attacker63'
Referee : Tom Nield

Starting XI ▼

12
Richard O'Donnell
Richard O'Donnell Goalkeeper
2
Derry Murkin
Derry Murkin Defender
5
Matt Clarke
Matt Clarke Defender
23
Joe Ward
Joe Ward Defender
28
Dion Sanderson
Dion Sanderson Defender
18
David Ozoh
David Ozoh Midfielder
54
Cruz Anthony Allen
Cruz Anthony Allen
Midfielder86'
25
Ben Brereton Díaz
Ben Brereton Díaz Midfielder
2
27
Lewis Travis
Lewis Travis Midfielder
34
Jaydon Banel
Jaydon Banel Midfielder
29
Oscar Fraulo
Oscar Fraulo
Midfielder72'
42
Bobby Clark
Bobby Clark Midfielder
9
Carlton Morris
Carlton Morris Attacker
7
Patrick Agyemang
Patrick Agyemang
Attacker65'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Victor Torp → Matt Grimes
7th Substitution
90'
86'
Event
Cruz Anthony Allen → David Ozoh
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Patrick Agyemang
2nd Yellowcard
Event
Jack Rudoni
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
80'
77'
Event
Ben Brereton Díaz
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
72'
Event
Oscar Fraulo → Jaydon Banel
5th Substitution
Event
Jack Rudoni
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
68'
65'
Event
Patrick Agyemang → Carlton Morris
4th Substitution
Event
Haji Wright → Ellis Simms
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Jack Rudoni → Josh Eccles
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Ephron Mason-Clark → Romain Esse
1st Substitution
62'
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Ben Brereton Díaz
Header / 2nd Goal
29'
Event
Lewis Travis
1st Yellowcard
Event
Frank Onyeka
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
13'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Frank Onyeka of Coventry City won a free kick in defense.
90
Corner Corner
Coventry City wins a corner after Joe Ward concedes.
90
Update Update
Cruz Allen from Derby County committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 7 minutes of added time.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ephron Mason-Clark's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Tatsuhiro Sakamoto.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Oscar Fraulo of Derby County.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Coventry City: Victor Torp replaces Matt Grimes.
90
Update Update
Ben Brereton from Derby County won a free kick in the attacking area.
90
Update Update
Fouled by Ephron Mason-Clark of Coventry City.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance for Derby County. Patrick Agyemang heads the ball from inside the six-yard box on the left side but misses to the left. The assist was provided by Cruz Allen with a cross.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Coventry City defeating Derby County 3-2.
90
Update Update
Jack Rudoni from Coventry City won a free kick on the right wing.
86
Update Update
Fouled by Oscar Fraulo of Derby County.
86
Update Update
Jack Rudoni of Coventry City won a free kick in defense.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Cruz Allen replaces David Ozoh.
82
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Bobby Thomas from Coventry City.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Patrick Agyemang of Derby County receives a yellow card for a foul.
81
Update Update
Bobby Thomas from Coventry City won a free kick in defense.
81
Update Update
Foul by Patrick Agyemang of Derby County.
80
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jack Rudoni scores for Coventry City with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by Milan van Ewijk's cross. The score is now Coventry City 3, Derby County 2.
77
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Ben Brereton scores for Derby County with a right-footed shot into the top right corner. The match remains 2-2.
76
Update Update
Carl Rushworth of Coventry City concedes a penalty after committing a foul in the penalty area.
76
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Derby County as Ben Brereton is fouled in the penalty area.
75
Update Update
Foul committed by David Ozoh of Derby County.
75
Update Update
Ephron Mason-Clark from Coventry City won a free kick in an attacking position.
73
Update Update
Foul committed by Tatsuhiro Sakamoto of Coventry City.
73
Update Update
David Ozoh of Derby County won a free kick in an attacking position.
72
Update Update
Foul committed by Liam Kitching of Coventry City.
72
Update Update
Richard O'Donnell from Derby County won a free kick in defense.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Oscar Fraulo replaces Jaydon Banel.
71
Corner Corner
Coventry City wins a corner after Matt Clarke concedes.
70
Update Update
Matt Clarke from Derby County won a free kick in an attacking position.
70
Update Update
Foul committed by Jack Rudoni for Coventry City.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jack Rudoni scores for Coventry City with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner. The score is now Coventry City 2, Derby County 1.
67
Update Update
Foul committed by David Ozoh of Derby County.
67
Update Update
Frank Onyeka of Coventry City won a free kick in defense.
66
Update Update
Lewis Travis from Derby County won a free kick in defense.
66
Update Update
Ephron Mason-Clark fouled a player from Coventry City.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Patrick Agyemang replaces Carlton Morris.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Coventry City: Jack Rudoni replaces Josh Eccles.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Coventry City: Haji Wright replaces Ellis Simms.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Coventry City: Ephron Mason-Clark replaces Romain Esse.
60
Corner Corner
Coventry City win a corner after Richard O'Donnell concedes.
60
Corner Corner
Coventry City wins a corner after Richard O'Donnell concedes.
56
Update Update
Foul committed by Tatsuhiro Sakamoto of Coventry City.
56
Update Update
Derry John Murkin of Derby County won a free kick in defense.
56
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Josh Eccles from Coventry City has a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it is saved.
56
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Ellis Simms from Coventry City shoots with his right foot from the center of the box but the ball goes high.
53
Update Update
Foul committed by Lewis Travis for Derby County.
53
Update Update
Romain Esse from Coventry City won a free kick in the attacking area.
52
Update Update
Derry John Murkin from Derby County commits a foul.
52
Update Update
Tatsuhiro Sakamoto from Coventry City won a free kick in defense.
51
Update Update
Derry John Murkin of Derby County is fouled.
51
Update Update
Foul committed by David Ozoh of Derby County.
51
Update Update
Tatsuhiro Sakamoto from Coventry City won a free kick on the right wing.
51
Update Update
Frank Onyeka of Coventry City won a free kick in an attacking position.
47
Update Update
Bobby Clark of Derby County won a free kick in defense.
47
Attempt Attempt
Romain Esse's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Bobby Thomas.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Frank Onyeka against Coventry City.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 3 minutes of added time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity for Derby County as Jaydon Banel heads the ball from close range but misses. The assist came from Carlton Morris, who also headed the ball.
45
Corner Corner
Derby County wins a corner after Jay Dasilva concedes.
45
Corner Corner
Coventry City wins a corner after Joe Ward concedes.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Coventry City and Derby County tied at 1-1.
45
Update Update
The second half starts with the match tied at 1-1 between Coventry City and Derby County.
43
Corner Corner
Coventry City win a corner after Joe Ward concedes.
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The match is now 1-1 as Ben Brereton scores for Derby County with a header from the right side of the six-yard box, assisted by Matt Clarke's cross.
36
Update Update
Richard O'Donnell of Derby County won a free kick in defense.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Ellis Simms of Coventry City.
34
Update Update
Bobby Clark from Derby County committed a foul.
34
Update Update
Matt Grimes of Coventry City won a free kick in defense.
34
Update Update
Foul committed by Milan van Ewijk of Coventry City.
34
Update Update
Jaydon Banel from Derby County won a free kick in an attacking position.
31
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Derry John Murkin from Derby County took a left-footed shot from the left side of the box.
31
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance for Derby County. Derry John Murkin shot with his left foot from the left side of the box but missed.
29
Update Update
Fouled by Lewis Travis of Derby County.
29
Update Update
Josh Eccles from Coventry City won a free kick in defense.
29
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lewis Travis from Derby County receives a yellow card for a foul.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by Josh Eccles of Coventry City.
28
Update Update
Lewis Travis of Derby County won a free kick in defense.
26
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Frank Onyeka from Coventry City.
25
Corner Corner
Derby County wins a corner after Milan van Ewijk concedes.
25
Corner Corner
Coventry City win a corner after Dion Sanderson concedes.
23
Update Update
Joe Ward of Derby County won a free kick on the right wing.
22
Attempt Attempt
Bobby Thomas from Coventry City missed a header from the center of the box.
22
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Josh Eccles of Coventry City takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Richard O'Donnell of Derby County. The assist comes from Ellis Simms.
22
Update Update
Dion Sanderson from Derby County won a free kick in defense.
21
Update Update
Josh Eccles of Coventry City won a free kick in an attacking position.
20
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Matt Grimes from Coventry City took a left-footed shot from outside the box.
20
Update Update
Foul committed by Lewis Travis for Derby County.
14
Update Update
Bobby Clark from Derby County committed a foul.
14
Update Update
Josh Eccles of Coventry City won a free kick in defense.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Coventry City leads 1-0 against Derby County. Frank Onyeka scores with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box into the top left corner, assisted by Romain Esse.
11
Update Update
Josh Eccles of Coventry City won a free kick in an attacking position.
11
Update Update
Foul committed by Dion Sanderson for Derby County.
9
Update Update
Offside called against Derby County. Ben Brereton is in an offside position.
8
Corner Corner
Romain Esse of Coventry City attempts an attack, shooting with his left foot from the left side of the box, but Richard O'Donnell of Derby County saves it in the left corner. The assist comes from Josh Eccles.
7
Attempt Attempt
Bobby Clark's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
3
Attempt Attempt
Romain Esse's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Liam Kitching.
2
Corner Corner
Coventry City win a corner after Joe Ward concedes.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Coventry City exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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