Como vs Parma Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia Sun, 17 May - 10:00 AM
Serie A
Como COM
1 Winner 0
Parma PRM
Full Time Sun, 17 May 10:00 AM
Round 37 Regular Season
Alberto Moreno - 58'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

In a tightly contested Serie A encounter Como secured a narrow victory over Parma ending 1-0. The match remained goalless at halftime reflecting an even first half. Despite the close scoreline Como dominated possession with 67 percent compared to Parma's 33 percent. Expected goals heavily favored Como at 2.28 against Parma's mere 0.16 indicating substantial underlying dominance by the stronger side. The outcome aligned consistently with the expected goals metrics and no red cards were issued to either side throughout the ninety minutes. This result highlights Como's control and efficiency in converting opportunities into the decisive goal while Parma remained largely ineffective in attack.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Como exhibited a significant structural deviation of 23.4 percent from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with overall team performances.
  • xG alignment: The match outcome showed true alignment with the expected goals differential of 2.12.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was confirmed as the result matched pre-match projections.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations positioned Como strongly with 2.28 compared to Parma's 0.16.
  • Event impact: The single goal proved decisive in determining the 1-0 outcome for Como.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion was absent given that no dismissals occurred in the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

L. Zufferli

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Rossi

1st Assistant

Italy

P. Laudato

2nd Assistant

Italy

V. Crezzini

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Serie A Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.85
Yellow cards / match 3.2
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.17
Como F. Fàbregas i Soler
F. Fàbregas i Soler
VS
Parma C. Antón Cuesta
C. Antón Cuesta
1.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.36
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hellas Verona Rank: 64 W
Napoli Rank: 86 D
Genoa Rank: 74 W
Sassuolo Rank: 75 L
Inter Rank: 92 L
Udinese Rank: 76 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Roma Rank: 85 L
Inter Rank: 91 L
Pisa Rank: 64 W
Udinese Rank: 76 W
Napoli Rank: 85 D
Lazio Rank: 80 D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 4 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Como
76.59%
Draw
16.19%
Away Parma
7.22%

Movement

Changes since opening
Como
-19.89%
Draw
+12.86%
Parma
+7.03%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
83.98
71.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Como
Parma
Power Score
83.98
71.71
League Position
5
13
Global Rank
39
158

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Como — Opponent-weighted form score
Parma — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Como Parma

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Como

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Parma

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Como ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Parma
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.60
7.58
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
7.58
40.60
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Como +3.33 Efficiency Index
vs
Parma -3.33 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Como
Parma
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Como
vs
Parma
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Como Parma
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Como Parma
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Como
Parma
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Como
vs
Parma
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Como Parma
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Como 0.27
Parma 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Como Parma
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Como 0.00
Parma 0.01
Como
Parma
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • COM had peak pressure around 39'.
  • COM started the game with stronger pressure.
COM Pressure PRM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: COM reached the top pressure at 39' (72.99).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Como COM Home
9 matches
Parma PRM Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
4
Draws
4
3
Losses
2
Goals
10
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
10
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:58:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
J. Butez
France
1 J. Butez
I. Brempt
Substitution
Belgium
77 I. Brempt
J. Naveros
Spain
14 J. Naveros
M. Kempf
Substitution
Germany
2 M. Kempf
A. Moreno Pérez
Spain
18 A. Moreno Pérez
L. Da Cunha
France
33 (C) L. Da Cunha
M. Perrone
Argentina
23 M. Perrone
M. Caqueret
Substitution
France
6 M. Caqueret
M. Baturina
Substitution
Croatia
20 M. Baturina
A. Diao Diaoune
Senegal
38 A. Diao Diaoune
A. Douvikas
Substitution
Greece
11 A. Douvikas
Pitch
Z. Suzuki
Japan
31 Z. Suzuki
L. Valenti
Argentina
5 L. Valenti
M. Troilo
Argentina
37 M. Troilo
A. Circati
Australia
39 A. Circati
F. Carboni
Substitution
Argentina
29 F. Carboni
C. Ordoñez
Substitution
Argentina
24 C. Ordoñez
H. Nicolussi Caviglia
Substitution
Italy
41 H. Nicolussi Caviglia
M. Keita
Belgium
16 M. Keita
E. Del Prato
Italy
15 (C) E. Del Prato
G. Strefezza Rebelato
Substitution
Brazil
7 G. Strefezza Rebelato
M. Pellegrino Casalanguila
Argentina
9 M. Pellegrino Casalanguila

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 10:00 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
Capacity :
13602
Attendance :
11365
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Luca Zufferli
Christian Rossi
Paolo Laudato
Valerio Crezzini

Statistics

Possession
COM
64%
PRM
36%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 1
15 Shots 2
84 Dangerous attacks 10
67 Possession 33
15 Corners 2
14 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

11 Successful Headers 16
1 Goal Kicks 8
23 Throwins 23
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 20
6 Successful Dribbles 3
15 Dribble Attempts 15
2 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 1
69 Ball Safe 79
11 Goal Attempts 2

Attacking

114 Attacks 57
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

34 Long Passes 45
453 Passes 227
387 Successful Passes 166
85 Successful Passes Percentage 73
12 Successful Long Passes 20
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
17 Key Passes 1

Defensive

22 Tackles 22
5 Interceptions 6
2 Saves 6
52 Duels Won 50

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 10
7 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

2 Offsides 4
10 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Luca Zufferli

Starting XI ▼

1
Jean Butez
Jean Butez Goalkeeper
7.09
2
Marc Oliver Kempf
Marc Oliver Kempf Defender
7.28
34
Diego Carlos
Diego Carlos
Defender82'
6.55
14
Jacobo Ramón
Jacobo Ramón Defender
7.67
18
Alberto Moreno
Alberto Moreno Defender
7.72
77
Ignace Van der Brempt
Ignace Van der Brempt Defender
7.05
28
Ivan Smolcic
Ivan Smolcic
Defender71'
6.38
6
Maxence Caqueret
Maxence Caqueret Midfielder
6.54
17
Jesús Rodríguez
Jesús Rodríguez
Attacker53'
7.43
20
Martin Baturina
Martin Baturina Midfielder
7.91
8
Sergi Roberto
Sergi Roberto
Midfielder82'
6.52
23
Máximo Perrone
Máximo Perrone Midfielder
6.86
33
Lucas Da Cunha
Lucas Da Cunha (C) Midfielder
7.4
38
Assane Diao
Assane Diao Midfielder
6.34
11
Anastasios Douvikas
Anastasios Douvikas Attacker
6.46
7
Álvaro Morata
Álvaro Morata
Attacker82'
6.49
Referee : Luca Zufferli

Starting XI ▼

31
Zion Suzuki
Zion Suzuki Goalkeeper
7.88
5
Lautaro Valenti
Lautaro Valenti Defender
6.79
37
Mariano Troilo
Mariano Troilo Defender
6.75
39
Alessandro Circati
Alessandro Circati Defender
6.74
15
Enrico Delprato
Enrico Delprato (C) Midfielder
6.94
16
Mandela Keita
Mandela Keita Midfielder
6.76
24
Christian Ordóñez
Christian Ordóñez Midfielder
6.51
22
Oliver Sørensen
Oliver Sørensen
Midfielder70'
6.62
29
Franco Carboni
Franco Carboni Midfielder
6.27
14
Emanuele Valeri
Emanuele Valeri
Defender71'
6.7
41
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia Midfielder
6.23
8
Nahuel Estévez
Nahuel Estévez
Midfielder71'
6.63
7
Gabriel Strefezza
Gabriel Strefezza Attacker
6.26
23
Nesta Elphege
Nesta Elphege
Attacker59'
6.18
9
Mateo Pellegrino
Mateo Pellegrino Attacker
6.56

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jacobo Ramón
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
88'
85'
Event
Daniel Mikolajewski → Nesta Elphege
10th Substitution
Event
Diego Carlos → Marc Oliver Kempf
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Sergi Roberto → Martin Baturina
9th Substitution
82'
Event
Álvaro Morata → Anastasios Douvikas 
8th Substitution
82'
76'
Event
Mateo Pellegrino
Goal disallowed
Event
Ivan Smolcic → Ignace Van der Brempt
5th Substitution
71'
71'
Event
Emanuele Valeri → Franco Carboni
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Nahuel Estévez → Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Oliver Sørensen → Christian Ordóñez
3rd Substitution
Event
Alberto Moreno
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
65'
59'
Event
Nesta Elphege → Gabriel Strefezza
2nd Substitution
Event
Alberto Moreno
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
58'
Event
Jesús Rodríguez → Maxence Caqueret
1st Substitution
53'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Enrico Del Prato's header is saved.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Jacobo Ramon Naveros.
85
Update Update
Daniel Mikolajewski comes on for Nesta Elphege.
82
Update Update
Diego Carlos is on, and Marc-Oliver Kempf is off.
82
Update Update
Alvaro Morata is on, and Anastasios Douvikas is off.
82
Update Update
Sergi Roberto Carnicer comes on for Martin Baturina.
82
Attempt Attempt
Alvaro Morata's left-footed shot is saved.
81
Attempt Attempt
Martin Baturina takes a left-footed shot but misses.
73
Update Update
Mateo Pellegrino Casalanguila scores with a header.
71
Update Update
Ivan Smolcic is on, and Ignace Van Der Brempt is off.
70
Update Update
Emanuele Valeri is on, and Franco Carboni is off.
70
Update Update
Nahuel Estevez comes on for Hans Nicolussi Caviglia.
70
Update Update
Oliver Sorensen replaces Christian Ordonez.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alberto Moreno receives a yellow card.
64
Attempt Attempt
Anastasios Douvikas takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
61
Attempt Attempt
Jacobo Ramon Naveros takes a left-footed shot but misses.
59
Update Update
Nesta Elphege replaces Gabriel Strefezza.
58
Attempt Attempt
Alberto Moreno scores with a left-footed shot.
58
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Alberto Moreno scores to make it 1-0.
57
Attempt Attempt
Martin Baturina takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
53
Update Update
Jesus Rodriguez replaces Maxence Caqueret.
46
Attempt Attempt
Anastasios Douvikas takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
46
Attempt Attempt
Assane Diao takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Anastasios Douvikas takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ignace Van Der Brempt takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Martin Baturina takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Maxence Caqueret takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Anastasios Douvikas takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
38
Attempt Attempt
Assane Diao takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
33
Attempt Attempt
Alberto Moreno takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
30
Attempt Attempt
Assane Diao takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
30
Attempt Attempt
Martin Baturina takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
14
Attempt Attempt
Assane Diao's right-footed shot is blocked.
14
Attempt Attempt
Jacobo Ramon Naveros takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
11
Attempt Attempt
Martin Baturina takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
8
Attempt Attempt
Maximo Perrone takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
8
Attempt Attempt
Jacobo Ramon Naveros attempts a header but misses the shot.
4
Attempt Attempt
Jacobo Ramon Naveros takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Como 1-0 Parma. Structural assessment: Como exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Como vs Parma preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Serie A, Italy View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Dan A

Dan A creates clear football match previews built around team form, performance trends, and practical pre-match insights.