Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Stamford Bridge Mon, 4 May - 2:00 PM
Premier League
Chelsea CHE
1 Winner 3
Nottingham Forest NFO
Full Time Mon, 4 May 2:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
João Pedro - 90+3'
Goal
|
Goal
Taiwo Awoniyi  - 52', 2'
Igor Jesus - 15' (P)

CONTEXT

Chelsea suffered a surprising 1-3 home defeat to Nottingham Forest, despite controlling 68% of possession. The visitors took a commanding 0-2 lead into halftime, capitalizing on limited opportunities while Chelsea struggled to break down a resilient defense. In the second half, Chelsea pulled one goal back but failed to mount a sustained comeback, as Forest defended stoutly and added a third on the counter. This result marks an upset, given Chelsea's status as the stronger team on paper. Structural analysis shows minimal deviation at 2.1%, with the outcome aligning closely with pre-match market expectations despite the possession disparity. No red cards influenced play, and there were no notable second-half adjustments from either side. Forest's efficiency in transition proved decisive, exposing Chelsea's vulnerabilities in the final third. The match highlighted how dominance in territory does not always translate to goals.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Deviation was minimal at 2.1% in favor of Nottingham Forest.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable for alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No significant events like red cards or adjustments altered the game flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Taylor

England 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Beswick

1st Assistant

England

M. Salisbury

4th Official

England

A. Nunn

2nd Assistant

England

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 18.28
Yellow cards / match 3.39
Red cards / match 0.09
Penalties / match 0.19
Chelsea C. McFarlane
C. McFarlane
VS
Nottingham Forest V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 89 L
Manchester United Rank: 90 L
Manchester City Rank: 97 L
Everton Rank: 87 L
Newcastle United Rank: 89 L
Aston Villa Rank: 90 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sunderland Rank: 81 W
Burnley Rank: 78 W
Aston Villa Rank: 91 D
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 84 W
Fulham Rank: 86 D
Manchester City Rank: 98 D
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 3 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Chelsea
0.2%
Draw
1.92%
Away Nottingham Forest
97.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
88.14
72.27
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
Power Score
88.14
72.27
League Position
9
16
Global Rank
20
18

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Chelsea — Opponent-weighted form score
Nottingham Forest — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Chelsea Nottingham Forest

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Chelsea

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Nottingham Forest

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Chelsea ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nottingham Forest
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.06
21.25
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.25
37.06
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Chelsea +1.77 Efficiency Index
vs
Nottingham Forest -1.77 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Chelsea ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nottingham Forest
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Chelsea Nottingham Forest
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Chelsea Nottingham Forest
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Chelsea
vs
Nottingham Forest
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Chelsea Nottingham Forest
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Chelsea 0.25
Nottingham Forest 0.38
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Chelsea Nottingham Forest
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Chelsea 0.19
Nottingham Forest 0.01
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CHE had peak pressure around 47'.
  • NFO started the game with stronger pressure.
CHE Pressure NFO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CHE reached the top pressure at 47' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Chelsea CHE Home
11 matches
Nottingham Forest NFO Away
Match Record
7
Wins
1
3
Draws
3
1
Losses
7
Goals
23
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
23
+15
Goal Difference
-15

Data last updated: 2026-05-05T00:01:06+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
R. Lynch Sanchez
Substitution
Spain
1 R. Lynch Sanchez
M. Gusto
France
27 M. Gusto
T. Chalobah
England
23 T. Chalobah
O. Adarabioyo
Substitution
England
4 O. Adarabioyo
M. Cucurella
Spain
3 M. Cucurella
R. Lavia
Substitution
Belgium
45 R. Lavia
M. Caicedo Corozo
Ecuador
25 M. Caicedo Corozo
C. Palmer
England
10 C. Palmer
E. Fernández
Argentina
8 E. Fernández
J. Derry
Substitution
England
55 J. Derry
J. Junqueira de Jesus
Brazil
20 J. Junqueira de Jesus
Pitch
M. Sels
Belgium
26 M. Sels
L. Netz
Germany
25 L. Netz
F. Rodrigues
Brazil
4 F. Rodrigues
J. da Cunha Filho
Substitution
Brazil
23 J. da Cunha Filho
Z. Abbott
Substitution
England
44 Z. Abbott
J. Mcatee
England
24 J. Mcatee
N. Domínguez
Substitution
Argentina
16 N. Domínguez
R. Yates
England
22 R. Yates
D. Bakwa
Substitution
France
29 D. Bakwa
T. Awoniyi
Nigeria
9 T. Awoniyi
I. da Cruz
Substitution
Brazil
19 I. da Cruz

General Information

Date & Time :
May 04, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stamford Bridge
Capacity :
40341
Attendance :
39605
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Anthony Taylor
Gary Beswick
Michael Salisbury
Adam Nunn

Statistics

Possession
CHE
64%
NFO
36%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
2 Big Chances Created 3
9 Shots 1
84 Dangerous attacks 16
68 Possession 32
10 Corners 1
12 Free kicks 12
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Assists 2
6 Successful Dribbles 3
17 Dribble Attempts 6
1 Penalties 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0
35 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
1 Goal Kicks 16
19 Throwins 10
14 Successful Headers 10
4 Substitutions 6
80 Ball Safe 76
11 Goal Attempts 5
3 Injuries 4

Attacking

140 Attacks 54
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

591 Successful Passes 259
31 Long Passes 47
16 Key Passes 4
651 Passes 325
91 Successful Passes Percentage 80
16 Successful Long Passes 15
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32

Defensive

6 Interceptions 9
42 Duels Won 47
14 Tackles 22
1 Saves 4

Build-up

10 Accurate Crosses 1
34 Total Crosses 4

Discipline

12 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Anthony Taylor

Starting XI ▼

1
Robert Sánchez
Robert Sánchez Goalkeeper
6.83
12
Filip Jørgensen
Filip Jørgensen
Goalkeeper66'
6.66
3
Marc Cucurella
Marc Cucurella Defender
6.87
4
Tosin Adarabioyo
Tosin Adarabioyo Defender
6.76
6
Levi Colwill
Levi Colwill
Defender46'
6.53
23
Trevoh Chalobah
Trevoh Chalobah Defender
6.95
27
Malo Gusto
Malo Gusto Defender
6.82
8
Enzo Fernández
Enzo Fernández Midfielder
7.24
10
Cole Palmer
Cole Palmer Midfielder
7.03
25
Moisés Caicedo
Moisés Caicedo Midfielder
7.05
45
Roméo Lavia
Roméo Lavia Midfielder
6.64
17
Andrey Santos
Andrey Santos
Midfielder58'
6.72
55
Jesse Derry
Jesse Derry Midfielder
6.95
9
Liam Delap
Liam Delap
Attacker45+9'
6.63
20
João Pedro
João Pedro Attacker
7.14
Referee : Anthony Taylor

Starting XI ▼

26
Matz Sels
Matz Sels Goalkeeper
6.76
4
Morato
Morato Defender
6.78
23
Jair Cunha
Jair Cunha Defender
6.63
31
Nikola Milenković
Nikola Milenković
Defender46'
6.75
25
Luca Netz
Luca Netz Defender
6.56
44
Zach Abbott
Zach Abbott Defender
6.39
3
Neco Williams
Neco Williams
Defender45+5'
6.96
16
Nicolás Domínguez
Nicolás Domínguez Midfielder
6.76
8
Elliot Anderson
Elliot Anderson
Midfielder46'
7.24
22
Ryan Yates
Ryan Yates Midfielder
6.63
24
James McAtee
James McAtee Midfielder
6.45
29
Dilane Bakwa
Dilane Bakwa Midfielder
6.62
21
Omari Hutchinson
Omari Hutchinson
Attacker80'
6.84
9
Taiwo Awoniyi
Taiwo Awoniyi Attacker
2
6.67
19
Igor Jesus
Igor Jesus Attacker
6.78
10
Morgan Gibbs-White
Morgan Gibbs-White
Midfielder46'
7.04

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
João Pedro
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+3'
80'
Event
Omari Hutchinson  → Dilane Bakwa
10th Substitution
Event
Moisés Caicedo
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
78'
Event
Liam Delap
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
78'
Event
João Pedro
Goal disallowed
75'
Event
Filip Jørgensen → Robert Sánchez
8th Substitution
66'
66'
Event
Chris Wood  → Morgan Gibbs-White
9th Substitution
Event
Andrey Santos → Roméo Lavia
7th Substitution
58'
52'
Event
Taiwo Awoniyi 
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Levi Colwill  → Tosin Adarabioyo
4th Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Elliot Anderson → Nicolás Domínguez
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Nikola Milenković → Jair Cunha 
5th Substitution
46'
Event
Morgan Gibbs-White → Igor Jesus
6th Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Cole Palmer
GoalkeeperSave
45+10'
Event
Liam Delap → Jesse Derry
2nd Substitution
45+9'
45+5'
Event
Neco Williams → Zach Abbott
1st Substitution
15'
Event
Igor Jesus
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Malo Gusto
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
14'
13'
Event
João Pedro
Penalty awarded
10'
Event
Morato
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
2'
Event
Taiwo Awoniyi 
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
90
Attempt Attempt
Enzo Fernandez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus takes a right-footed shot and scores.
90
Attempt Attempt
Trevoh Thomas Chalobah attempts a header but misses the shot.
88
Attempt Attempt
Enzo Fernandez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
88
Attempt Attempt
Cole Jermaine Palmer takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Enzo Fernandez's left-footed shot is blocked.
80
Update Update
Omari Hutchinson comes on for Dilane Bakwa.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Moises Caicedo receives a yellow card.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Liam Delap receives a yellow card.
73
Attempt Attempt
Liam Delap takes a right-footed shot but misses.
73
Attempt Attempt
João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
73
Update Update
João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus scores with a header.
71
Attempt Attempt
Andrey Santos takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
66
Update Update
Chris Wood replaces Morgan Gibbs White.
66
Update Update
Filip Jorgensen replaces Robert Sanchez.
59
Attempt Attempt
James McAtee takes a left-footed shot but misses.
58
Update Update
Andrey Santos replaces Romeo Lavia.
52
Update Update
Goal! Taiwo Awoniyi scores to make it 3-0, assisted by Morgan Gibbs White.
52
Attempt Attempt
Taiwo Awoniyi scores with a left-footed shot.
51
Attempt Attempt
Marc Cucurella takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Elliot Anderson replaces Nicolas Dominguez.
46
Update Update
Morgan Gibbs White comes on for Igor Jesus Maciel da Cruz.
46
Update Update
Levi Samuels Colwill is on, and Oluwatosin Adarabioyo is off.
46
Update Update
Nikola Milenkovic is on, and Jair Paula da Cunha Filho is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Cole Jermaine Palmer takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Update Update
Liam Delap comes on for Jesse Derry.
45
Update Update
Neco Williams comes on for Zach Abbott.
45
Attempt Attempt
Cole Jermaine Palmer has his penalty saved.
44
Attempt Attempt
Malo Gusto takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
James Mcatee takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Jesse Derry's right-footed shot is saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Enzo Fernandez's right-footed shot is blocked.
33
Attempt Attempt
Igor Jesus Maciel da Cruz takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Romeo Lavia is blocked.
26
Attempt Attempt
Jesse Derry takes a right-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Cole Jermaine Palmer takes a left-footed shot but misses.
15
Update Update
Goal in the penalty shootout! Igor Jesus Maciel da Cruz scores, making it 0-2.
15
Attempt Attempt
Dilane Bakwa takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
14
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Malo Gusto receives a yellow card.
11
Attempt Attempt
Dilane Bakwa takes a left-footed shot but misses.
10
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Felipe Rodrigues Da Silva of Morato.
10
Attempt Attempt
Enzo Fernandez takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
2
Update Update
Goal! Taiwo Awoniyi scores, making it 1-0.
2
Update Update
Taiwo Awoniyi scores with a header.

CONCLUSION

Nottingham Forest's 1-3 victory over Chelsea underscores the value of clinical finishing against a possession-heavy opponent. With 32% possession, Forest maximized their chances, scoring three from efficient counters while Chelsea's 68% share yielded only one goal. The halftime 0-2 lead set the tone, and despite Chelsea's response, defensive solidity sealed the points. This minimal deviation outcome reinforces market alignment, as the stronger team faltered without key disruptive events. Forest's approach exemplifies how underdogs can thrive through discipline and opportunism in modern football.

Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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