Ceuta vs Málaga Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube Tomorrow - 2:15 PM
La Liga 2
Ceuta Ceuta
Versus
Málaga MLA
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 2:15 PM
Round 40 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In the 2025/2026 La Liga 2 Regular Season, Ceuta welcome Málaga to Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube. The hosts languish in 11th position with a power score of 57.16, trailing the fourth-placed visitors who boast 69.85 and a commanding 12.7-point edge. Form metrics underline Málaga's superiority, their 29.28 rating dwarfing Ceuta's 17.83. Málaga arrive as the clearly stronger outfit, blending higher standing and recent momentum. Detailed set-piece and efficiency stats remain unavailable due to absent xG data, forcing reliance on broader indicators. Ceuta must harness home support to counter Málaga's ascent toward promotion contention, setting up a classic David versus Goliath battle in this mid-season fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Málaga possess a 12.7-point power advantage over Ceuta.
  • Form: Málaga's form score stands at 29.28 compared to Ceuta's 17.83.
  • Squad: Ceuta occupy 11th place while Málaga sit 4th in the domestic league.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition play data not available.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data absent due to no xG availability.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable with low confidence proxies used.
  • Market: Ceuta 22.9% (Δ+0%) | Draw 23.7% (Δ+0%) | Málaga 53.4% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Ceuta J. Romero Gil
J. Romero Gil
VS
Málaga J. Funes Arjona
J. Funes Arjona
1.37
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.96
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Castellón Rank: 68 D
Sporting Gijón Rank: 64 W
Racing Santander Rank: 70 D
Real Zaragoza Rank: 57 D
Real Sociedad II Rank: 61 D
SD Eibar Rank: 70 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Gijón Rank: 64 W
SD Eibar Rank: 70 W
Castellón Rank: 67 L
Almería Rank: 68 L
Las Palmas Rank: 70 W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 70 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ceuta
22.93%
Draw
23.67%
Away Málaga
53.39%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
57.16
69.85
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ceuta
Málaga
Power Score
57.16
69.85
League Position
11
4
Global Rank
434
213

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ceuta — Opponent-weighted form score
Málaga — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ceuta Málaga

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ceuta Ceuta Home
1 matches
Málaga MLA Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
1
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T00:07:35+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
G. Vallejo Delgado
13 G. Vallejo Delgado
A. Caparrós Guzmán
4 A. Caparrós Guzmán
C. Hernández Alarcón
6 C. Hernández Alarcón
Y. Bodiger
14 Y. Bodiger
D. González Cabanes
15 D. González Cabanes
M. Illescas Montaño
12 M. Illescas Montaño
Y. Didi
5 Y. Didi
R. Díez Adán
19 R. Díez Adán
J. Zalazar Martínez
8 J. Zalazar Martínez
M. Fernández Sánchez
9 M. Fernández Sánchez
K. De La Fuente
18 K. De La Fuente
Pitch
A. Herrero Peinador
1 A. Herrero Peinador
R. Garrido Hierro
31 R. Garrido Hierro
E. Galilea Azaceta
4 E. Galilea Azaceta
F. Montero Rubio
20 F. Montero Rubio
C. Puga Medina
3 C. Puga Medina
J. Muñoz Benavides
11 J. Muñoz Benavides
D. Brašanac
5 D. Brašanac
I. Merino Rodríguez
23 I. Merino Rodríguez
D. Larrubia Romano
10 D. Larrubia Romano
E. Jauregi Escobar
17 E. Jauregi Escobar
A. Niño Heredia
21 A. Niño Heredia

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 02:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 40 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube
Capacity :
6500
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

13
Guillermo Vallejo
Guillermo Vallejo Goalkeeper
6.91
8
Kuki Zalazar
Kuki Zalazar Attacker
6.91
18
Konrad de la Fuente
Konrad de la Fuente Attacker
6.68
9
Marcos Fernández
Marcos Fernández Centre Forward
6.89
4
Albert Caparrós
Albert Caparrós Right Back
6.58
5
Youness Lachhab
Youness Lachhab Central Midfield
6.75
6
Carlos Hernández
Carlos Hernández Right Back
6.87
15
Diego González
Diego González Left Back
6.62
19
Rubén Díez
Rubén Díez Central Midfield
7.01
14
Yann Bodiger
Yann Bodiger Left Back
6.65
12
Marino Illescas
Marino Illescas Central Midfield
6.87

Starting XI ▼

1
Alfonso Herrero
Alfonso Herrero Goalkeeper
6.94
11
Joaquín Muñoz
Joaquín Muñoz Midfielder
6.92
10
David Larrubia
David Larrubia Midfielder
7.12
17
Eneko Jauregi
Eneko Jauregi Attacker
6.7
21
Adrián Niño
Adrián Niño Attacker
6.92
23
Izan Merino
Izan Merino Central Midfield
6.71
3
Carlos Puga
Carlos Puga Right Back
6.94
4
Einar Galilea
Einar Galilea Left Back
6.8
5
Darko Brasanac
Darko Brasanac Central Midfield
6.56
31
Rafita Garrido
Rafita Garrido Left Back
6.74
20
Javi Montero
Javi Montero Right Back
6.72

CONCLUSION

Ceuta confront a formidable Málaga side at home, where the visitors' elevated power score, superior form, and loftier league position signal their dominance. Lacking granular xG insights on set pieces or efficiency, the preview hinges on macro trends favoring Málaga's promotion push. Ceuta's mid-table security offers little comfort against opponents surging upward. Home advantage at Alfonso Murube could spark resilience, yet Málaga's overall quality positions them to control proceedings and secure vital points in this Regular Season encounter.

Ceuta vs Málaga preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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