Ceuta vs Málaga Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube Sat, 16 May - 2:15 PM
La Liga 2
Ceuta Ceuta
1 Winner 4
Málaga MLA
Full Time Sat, 16 May 2:15 PM
Round 40 Regular Season
Einar Galilea - 52' (Own Goal)
Goal
|
Goal
Aarón Ochoa - 82'
Chupe - 42', 13'
Joaquín Muñoz - 4'

CONTEXT

In the encounter between Ceuta and Málaga the final score settled at 1-4 in favor of the visitors. The halftime score stood at 0-3 after Málaga netted three times in the opening period. Ceuta managed to pull one goal back during the second half but could not close the gap significantly. Possession statistics reflected a balanced distribution with Ceuta holding 48 percent and Málaga 52 percent. Neither side received red cards throughout the contest. Málaga as the stronger team delivered a performance that secured the win without notable interruptions. The minimal deviation observed aligned closely with the expected outcome based on team strengths. Second half adjustments by the home side proved insufficient to alter the overall result.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Ceuta 1-4 Málaga. Málaga showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match projections for both teams.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was not available for alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: The final outcome proved consistent with market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: No xG metrics were recorded to evaluate expectations.
  • Event impact: The away team established a three goal halftime lead that shaped the match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards ensured no distortion from disciplinary events.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. De Ena Wolf

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Fernández Pérez

2nd Assistant

Spain

J. Tárraga Lájara

4th Official

Spain

R. Porras Rico

1st Assistant

Spain

League averages

La Liga 2 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.86
Yellow cards / match 4.82
Red cards / match 0.27
Penalties / match 0.33
Ceuta J. Romero Gil
J. Romero Gil
VS
Málaga J. Funes Arjona
J. Funes Arjona
1.37
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.96
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Castellón Rank: 68 D
Sporting Gijón Rank: 64 W
Racing Santander Rank: 70 D
Real Zaragoza Rank: 56 D
Real Sociedad II Rank: 60 D
SD Eibar Rank: 69 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Gijón Rank: 64 W
SD Eibar Rank: 70 W
Castellón Rank: 67 L
Almería Rank: 70 L
Las Palmas Rank: 70 W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 70 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ceuta
0.39%
Draw
2.37%
Away Málaga
97.24%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.19
70.22
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ceuta
Málaga
Power Score
56.19
70.22
League Position
13
4
Global Rank
463
196

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ceuta — Opponent-weighted form score
Málaga — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ceuta Málaga

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Ceuta

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Málaga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ceuta ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Málaga
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.33
25.58
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.58
33.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Ceuta +0.78 Efficiency Index
vs
Málaga -0.78 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Ceuta
Málaga
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ceuta ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Málaga
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Ceuta Málaga
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Ceuta Málaga
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Ceuta
Málaga
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Ceuta
vs
Málaga
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Ceuta Málaga
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Ceuta 0.35
Málaga 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Ceuta Málaga
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Ceuta 0.09
Málaga 0.03
Ceuta
Málaga
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MLA had peak pressure around 16'.
  • MLA started the game with stronger pressure.
Ceuta Pressure MLA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MLA reached the top pressure at 16' (87.40).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ceuta Ceuta Home
1 matches
Málaga MLA Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
1
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:57:03+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
G. Vallejo Delgado
Spain
13 G. Vallejo Delgado
A. Tuhami
Morocco
23 A. Tuhami
C. Hernández Alarcón
Spain
6 (C) C. Hernández Alarcón
Y. Bodiger
France
14 Y. Bodiger
D. González Cabanes
Spain
15 D. González Cabanes
Y. Didi
Substitution
Morocco
5 Y. Didi
M. Illescas Montaño
Substitution
Spain
12 M. Illescas Montaño
R. Díez Adán
Substitution
Spain
19 R. Díez Adán
J. Zalazar Martínez
Substitution
Spain
8 J. Zalazar Martínez
K. De La Fuente
Substitution
United States
18 K. De La Fuente
M. Fernández Sánchez
Spain
9 M. Fernández Sánchez
Pitch
A. Herrero Peinador
Spain
1 (C) A. Herrero Peinador
R. Garrido Hierro
Spain
31 R. Garrido Hierro
E. Galilea Azaceta
Spain
4 E. Galilea Azaceta
?. Recio Gutiérrez
Substitution
Spain
36 ?. Recio Gutiérrez
C. Puga Medina
Spain
3 C. Puga Medina
D. Lorenzo Guerrero
Substitution
Spain
22 D. Lorenzo Guerrero
I. Merino Rodríguez
Spain
23 I. Merino Rodríguez
R. Rodríguez Ruiz
Substitution
Spain
37 R. Rodríguez Ruiz
J. Muñoz Benavides
Substitution
Spain
11 J. Muñoz Benavides
C. Ruiz Rubio
Spain
9 C. Ruiz Rubio
D. Larrubia Romano
Substitution
Spain
10 D. Larrubia Romano

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 02:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 40 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube
Capacity :
6500
Attendance :
5483
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
S. Fernández Pérez
Jorge Tárraga Lájara
Alonso De Ena Wolf
Rubén Porras Rico

Statistics

Possession
Ceuta
48%
MLA
52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 4
1 Big Chances Created 5
3 Shots 1
40 Dangerous attacks 46
48 Possession 52
5 Corners 1
11 Free kicks 17
4 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

17 Throwins 12
10 Successful Dribbles 11
0 Assists 3
20 Dribble Attempts 18
70 Ball Safe 84
11 Goal Attempts 10
6 Goal Kicks 12
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 61
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

101 Attacks 87
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

369 Successful Passes 403
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
12 Key Passes 8
87 Successful Passes Percentage 84
34 Long Passes 68
14 Successful Long Passes 28
424 Passes 477

Defensive

9 Tackles 17
36 Duels Won 50
14 Interceptions 5
4 Saves 5

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 2
3 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

17 Fouls 11
4 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Alonso De Ena Wolf

Starting XI ▼

13
Guillermo Vallejo
Guillermo Vallejo Goalkeeper
6.12
6
Carlos Hernández
Carlos Hernández (C) Defender
6.21
14
Yann Bodiger
Yann Bodiger Defender
5.83
15
Diego González
Diego González Defender
6.35
23
Anuar
Anuar Defender
6.18
5
Youness Lachhab
Youness Lachhab Midfielder
6.09
11
Ignacio Schor
Ignacio Schor
Attacker46'
6.66
8
Kuki Zalazar
Kuki Zalazar Midfielder
6.72
34
Arick Betancourt
Arick Betancourt
Midfielder77'
6.49
12
Marino Illescas
Marino Illescas Midfielder
6.56
30
Josema
Josema
Midfielder85'
6.53
18
Konrad de la Fuente
Konrad de la Fuente Midfielder
6.14
24
Yago Cantero
Yago Cantero
Defender46'
6.29
19
Rubén Díez
Rubén Díez Midfielder
6.43
26
Aboubacar Bassinga
Aboubacar Bassinga
Midfielder46'
6.33
9
Marcos Fernández
Marcos Fernández Attacker
6.4
Referee : Alonso De Ena Wolf

Starting XI ▼

1
Alfonso Herrero
Alfonso Herrero (C) Goalkeeper
7.51
3
Carlos Puga
Carlos Puga Defender
7.35
4
Einar Galilea
Einar Galilea Defender
6.53
31
Rafita Garrido
Rafita Garrido Defender
6.42
36
Ángel Recio
Ángel Recio Defender
6.83
20
Javi Montero
Javi Montero
Defender63'
6.48
22
Dani Lorenzo
Dani Lorenzo Midfielder
6.69
6
Ramón Enríquez
Ramón Enríquez
Midfielder46'
6.82
23
Izan Merino
Izan Merino Midfielder
6.9
37
Rafa Rodríguez
Rafa Rodríguez Midfielder
7.54
35
Aarón Ochoa
Aarón Ochoa
Midfielder63'
7.26
9
Chupe
Chupe Attacker
2
8.85
10
David Larrubia
David Larrubia Attacker
6.88
5
Darko Brasanac
Darko Brasanac
Midfielder80'
6.64
11
Joaquín Muñoz
Joaquín Muñoz Attacker
7.89
24
Julen Lobete
Julen Lobete
Attacker72'
6.98

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Josema → Marino Illescas
10th Substitution
85'
84'
Event
Darko Brasanac
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
82'
Event
Aarón Ochoa
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
80'
Event
Darko Brasanac → David Larrubia
9th Substitution
Event
Yann Bodiger
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
77'
Event
Marcos Fernández
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
77'
Event
Arick Betancourt → Kuki Zalazar
8th Substitution
77'
72'
Event
Julen Lobete → Joaquín Muñoz
7th Substitution
64'
Event
Aarón Ochoa
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
63'
Event
Javi Montero → Ángel Recio
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Aarón Ochoa → Rafa Rodríguez
6th Substitution
Event
Einar Galilea
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
52'
Event
Ignacio Schor
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
48'
Event
Aboubacar Bassinga → Rubén Díez
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Ignacio Schor → Youness Lachhab
4th Substitution
46'
Event
Yago Cantero → Konrad de la Fuente
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Ramón Enríquez → Dani Lorenzo
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Chupe
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Marcos Fernández
Goal disallowed
37'
Event
Youness Lachhab
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
34'
13'
Event
Chupe
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
5'
Event
Marcos Fernández
Goal awarded
4'
Event
Joaquín Muñoz
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Chupete takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
89
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Hernandez Alarcon attempts a header but misses the shot.
85
Update Update
Josema comes on for Marino Illescas.
84
Attempt Attempt
Aboubacar Bassinga takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
82
Attempt Attempt
Aaron Ochoa takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
80
Update Update
Darko Brasanac comes on for David Larrubia.
78
Attempt Attempt
David Larrubia attempts a left-footed shot but misses.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Arick Betancourt comes on for Jose Luis Zalazar Martinez.
72
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Fernandez Sanchez takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
72
Substitution Substitution
Julen Lobete Cienfuegos is substituted for Joaquin Munoz Benavides.
69
Attempt Attempt
Aboubacar Bassinga takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
65
Attempt Attempt
Ignacio Schor takes a header shot but misses.
63
Update Update
Aaron Ochoa is on, and Rafa Rodriguez is off.
63
Update Update
Francisco Javier Montero Rubio is on, and Angel Recio Gutierrez is off.
62
Attempt Attempt
Marino Illescas takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
60
Attempt Attempt
David Larrubia takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal by Einar Galilea Azaceta makes it 1-3.
50
Attempt Attempt
Jose Luis Zalazar Martinez, known as Kuki, took a left-footed shot but missed.
48
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ignacio Schor receives a yellow card.
46
Update Update
Ignacio Schor replaces Youness Lachhab.
46
Update Update
Yago Cantero Perez comes on for Konrad de la Fuente.
46
Update Update
Yago Cantero Perez replaces Konrad de la Fuente.
46
Update Update
Ignacio Schor comes on for Youness Lachhab.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jose Luis Zalazar Martinez, known as Kuki, takes a left-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Youness Lachhab takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
35
Attempt Attempt
Chupete takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
35
Attempt Attempt
Youness Lachhab's left-footed shot is saved.
28
Attempt Attempt
Marino Illescas takes a right-footed shot but misses.
19
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Fernandez Sanchez takes a shot with his right foot, but it's blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Lorenzo Guerrero takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Jose Luis Zalazar Martinez, Kuki, is saved with a left-footed shot.
15
Attempt Attempt
Rafa Rodriguez's left-footed shot is saved.
5
Update Update
VAR decision confirms the goal for Joaquin Munoz Benavides.
4
Attempt Attempt
Joaquin Munoz Benavides takes a left-footed shot and scores.
2
Attempt Attempt
Joaquin Munoz Benavides takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Ceuta 1-4 Málaga. Structural assessment: Málaga exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Ceuta vs Málaga preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.