Ceuta vs Castellón Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain

Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube Sat, 9 May - 12:00 PM

La Liga 2

Ceuta Ceuta

1 – 1

Castellón Castellón

Full Time Sat, 9 May 12:00 PM

Round 39 Regular Season

Marcos Fernández - 87' (P)

Fabrizio Brignani - 52'

CONTEXT

Ceuta and Castellón played out a 1-1 draw in a balanced Primera RFEF encounter. The first half ended goalless at 0-0, with both sides holding 50% possession throughout the match. Castellón entered as the stronger team but failed to capitalize, resulting in a shared spoils. No red cards were shown, and there were no notable second-half adjustments, keeping the game structured and even. The outcome displayed a moderate 10.3% structural deviation towards Castellón, indicating slight unpredictability despite their favoritism. Efficiency stayed in line with expectations, and the result aligned with pre-match market views. Without xG data available, performance metrics relied on observable play, highlighting Ceuta's defensive solidity in holding the visitors at bay. This point apiece maintains competitive standings for both clubs in a tightly fought division.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Match exhibited moderate 10.3% structural deviation towards Castellón.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
Event impact: No impactful events or adjustments altered match flow.
Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced zero distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

D. Palencia Caballero

Spain 25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Méndez Mateo

1st Assistant

Spain

M. Camacho Garrote

4th Official

Spain

M. Ortuño Sierra

2nd Assistant

Spain

J. Romero Gil

P. Hernández Domínguez

1.38

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.88

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

0 - 1 - 0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Ceuta

3.19%

Draw

89.71%

Castellón

7.11%

Movement

Changes since opening

Ceuta

-0.84%

Draw

+2.18%

Castellón

-1.32%

Team Power Ranking

57.12

67.99

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Ceuta

Castellón

Power Score

57.12

67.99

League Position

Global Rank

432

255

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Ceuta — Opponent-weighted form score

Castellón — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ceuta Castellón

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Ceuta

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Castellón

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ceuta ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Castellón

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

20.10

43.50

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

43.50

20.10

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Ceuta -2.38 Efficiency Index

Castellón +2.38 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Ceuta

Castellón

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ceuta ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Castellón

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Ceuta Castellón

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

1.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Ceuta Castellón

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 1.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Ceuta

Castellón

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Ceuta

Castellón

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Ceuta Castellón

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Ceuta Castellón

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Ceuta

Castellón

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Castellón had peak pressure around 67'.
Castellón started the game with stronger pressure.

Ceuta Pressure Castellón Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Castellón reached the top pressure at 67' (82.87).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ceuta Ceuta Home

1 matches

Castellón Castellón Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:01:28+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3

Match Formation 4-4-2

13 G. Vallejo Delgado

7 A. Ahmed Ahmed

6 C. Hernández Alarcón

14 Y. Bodiger

16 C. Redruello Nimo

19 R. Díez Adán

5 Y. Didi

12 M. Illescas Montaño

8 J. Zalazar Martínez

9 M. Fernández Sánchez

18 K. De La Fuente

13 R. Matthys

12 L. Alcázar Moreno

5 A. Jiménez Benítez

3 F. Brignani

22 J. Mellot

16 B. Kibambe Cipenga

25 R. Pompeu da Silva

15 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia

18 P. Santiago López

19 A. Jakobsen

21 A. Calatrava Torrado

General Information

Date & Time :

May 09, 2026, 12:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 39 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Capacity :

6500

Attendance :

3876

Pitch Surface :

Artificial turf

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Daniel Palencia Caballero

Joan Méndez Mateo

Manuel Camacho Garrote

Miguel Ortuño Sierra

Statistics

Possession

Ceuta

50%

Castellón

50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1

2 Big Chances Created 4

4 Shots 5

41 Dangerous attacks 75

50 Possession 50

6 Corners 6

14 Free kicks 15

4 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

8 Successful Dribbles 7

20 Throwins 28

47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

17 Dribble Attempts 14

12 Goal Kicks 3

103 Ball Safe 68

5 Goal Attempts 16

5 Substitutions 5

1 Injuries 0

0 Hit Woodwork 1

0 Assists 1

1 Penalties 0

Attacking

76 Attacks 94

1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

76 Successful Passes Percentage 80

51 Long Passes 24

387 Passes 375

45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33

293 Successful Passes 301

23 Successful Long Passes 8

6 Key Passes 16

Defensive

4 Saves 3

19 Tackles 21

49 Duels Won 53

14 Interceptions 12

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 5

11 Total Crosses 19

Discipline

15 Fouls 15

3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Daniel Palencia Caballero

Manager ▼

J. Romero Gil Coach

Starting XI ▼

Guillermo Vallejo Goalkeeper

Carlos Hernández Defender

Aisar Ahmed Defender

Salvi

Attacker73'

Yann Bodiger Defender

Carlos Redru Defender

Diego González

Defender27'

Youness Lachhab Midfielder

Anuar

Midfielder73'

Marino Illescas Midfielder

Gonzalo Almenara

Defender84'

Rubén Díez Midfielder

José Campaña

Midfielder73'

Kuki Zalazar Attacker

Marcos Fernández Attacker

Konrad de la Fuente Attacker

Substitutes ▼

Diego González

Defender27'

Salvi

Attacker73'

José Campaña

Midfielder73'

Anuar

Midfielder73'

Gonzalo Almenara

Defender84'

Bench ▼

Pedro López Goalkeeper

José Matos Defender

Albert Caparrós Defender

Yago Cantero Defender

Josema Midfielder

Arick Betancourt Midfielder

Ignacio Schor Attacker

Referee : Daniel Palencia Caballero