Ceuta vs Cádiz Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube Sat, 28 Mar - 1:00 PM
La Liga 2
Ceuta Ceuta
2 Winner 1
Cádiz CAD
Full Time Sat, 28 Mar 1:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Bojan Kovacevic - 65' (Own Goal)
Marcos Fernández - 21'
Goal
|
Goal
Roger Martí - 78'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Ceuta 2–1 Cádiz. The result saw Ceuta take the points. Ceuta showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 53%–47%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Ceuta showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Ceuta J. Romero Gil
J. Romero Gil
VS
Cádiz S. González Soriano
S. González Soriano
1.61
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.91
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Las Palmas Rank: 68 L
Mirandés Rank: 58 W
Córdoba Rank: 61 W
Granada Rank: 67 W
Huesca Rank: 58 L
Almería Rank: 70 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Zaragoza Rank: 56 L
SD Eibar Rank: 68 L
Real Sociedad II Rank: 62 L
Burgos Rank: 67 D
Almería Rank: 70 L
Huesca Rank: 58 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ceuta
48.68%
Draw
26.63%
Away Cádiz
24.69%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.25
60.41
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ceuta
Cádiz
Power Score
56.25
60.41
League Position
8
16
Global Rank
443
449

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ceuta — Opponent-weighted form score
Cádiz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ceuta Cádiz

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Ceuta

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cádiz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ceuta ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cádiz
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.15
13.19
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.19
19.15
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Ceuta +0.61 Efficiency Index
vs
Cádiz -0.61 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Ceuta
Cádiz
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ceuta ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cádiz
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Ceuta Cádiz
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Ceuta Cádiz
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Ceuta
Cádiz
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ceuta Ceuta Home
1 matches
Cádiz CAD Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-29T00:00:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
G. Vallejo Delgado
Spain
13 G. Vallejo Delgado
A. Ahmed Ahmed
Spain
7 A. Ahmed Ahmed
C. Hernández Alarcón
Substitution
Spain
6 C. Hernández Alarcón
D. González Cabanes
Spain
15 D. González Cabanes
J. Matos García
Spain
3 J. Matos García
Y. Bodiger
Substitution
France
14 Y. Bodiger
Y. Didi
Morocco
5 Y. Didi
J. Gómez Campaña
Substitution
Spain
20 J. Gómez Campaña
A. Bassinga
Substitution
26 A. Bassinga
M. Fernández Sánchez
Spain
9 M. Fernández Sánchez
K. Kone
Substitution
Kenya
22 K. Kone
Pitch
D. Gil Mohedano
Spain
1 D. Gil Mohedano
S. Arribas Prieto
Spain
38 S. Arribas Prieto
I. Ortega
Spain
6 I. Ortega
B. Kovačević
Serbia
14 B. Kovačević
I. Carcelén Valencia
Spain
20 I. Carcelén Valencia
J. González
Substitution
Spain
24 J. González
S. Ortuño Díaz
Substitution
Spain
15 S. Ortuño Díaz
Y. Diarra
Substitution
Mali
18 Y. Diarra
?. García Pascual
Substitution
23 ?. García Pascual
J. de la Rosa
Substitution
Spain
19 J. de la Rosa
D. Camara Sankharé
Mauritania
17 D. Camara Sankharé

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 28, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube
Capacity :
6500
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ , Clear
Referees :
Álvaro Moreno Aragón
Rodrigo Blázquez Sánchez
Álvaro González Narváez
?. Rodríguez Recio

Statistics

Possession
Ceuta
51%
CAD
49%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 4
43 Dangerous attacks 44
53 Possession 47
2 Corners 2
19 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

9 Goal Kicks 7
24 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
27 Throwins 24
17 Dribble Attempts 11
4 Successful Dribbles 6
72 Ball Safe 75
0 Hit Woodwork 1
7 Goal Attempts 5
5 Substitutions 5
0 Assists 1
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 1
94 Attacks 88

Possession

282 Successful Passes 241
76 Successful Passes Percentage 73
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
73 Long Passes 71
6 Key Passes 4
370 Passes 332
33 Successful Long Passes 27

Defensive

5 Interceptions 6
12 Tackles 24
0 Saves 2

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 17
1 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

15 Fouls 19
0 Offsides 6

Lineup

Referee : Álvaro Moreno Aragón

Starting XI ▼

13
Guillermo Vallejo
Guillermo Vallejo Goalkeeper
3
José Matos
José Matos Defender
6
Carlos Hernández
Carlos Hernández Defender
4
Albert Caparrós
Albert Caparrós
Defender88'
7
Aisar Ahmed
Aisar Ahmed Defender
15
Diego González
Diego González Defender
5
Youness Lachhab
Youness Lachhab Midfielder
14
Yann Bodiger
Yann Bodiger Midfielder
30
Josema
Josema
Midfielder89'
20
José Campaña
José Campaña Midfielder
18
Konrad de la Fuente
Konrad de la Fuente
Attacker77'
9
Marcos Fernández
Marcos Fernández Attacker
22
Kialy Abdoul Kone
Kialy Abdoul Kone Attacker
16
Carlos Redru
Carlos Redru
Defender89'
26
Aboubacar Bassinga
Aboubacar Bassinga Attacker
34
Arick Betancourt
Arick Betancourt
Midfielder71'
Referee : Álvaro Moreno Aragón

Starting XI ▼

1
David Gil
David Gil Goalkeeper
6
Iker Recio
Iker Recio Defender
14
Bojan Kovacevic
Bojan Kovacevic Defender
20
Iza Carcelén
Iza Carcelén Defender
38
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Defender
15
Sergio Ortuño
Sergio Ortuño Midfielder
8
Álex Fernández
Álex Fernández
Midfielder59'
18
Yussi Diarra
Yussi Diarra Midfielder
16
Antoñito Cordero
Antoñito Cordero
Attacker69'
19
José Antonio de la Rosa
José Antonio de la Rosa Midfielder
11
Suso
Suso
Midfielder59'
23
García Pascual
García Pascual Midfielder
9
Roger Martí
Roger Martí
Attacker71'
24
Joaquín González
Joaquín González Midfielder
3
Rominigue Kouamé
Rominigue Kouamé
Midfielder69'
17
Dawda Camara
Dawda Camara Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Rominigue Kouamé
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Iker Recio
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Carlos Redru → Kialy Abdoul Kone
10th Substitution
89'
Event
Josema → Yann Bodiger
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Albert Caparrós → Carlos Hernández
8th Substitution
88'
78'
Event
Roger Martí
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Konrad de la Fuente → José Campaña
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Arick Betancourt → Aboubacar Bassinga
5th Substitution
71'
71'
Event
Roger Martí → García Pascual
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Rominigue Kouamé → Joaquín González
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Antoñito Cordero → Yussi Diarra
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Suso
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Bojan Kovacevic
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
65'
59'
Event
Suso → José Antonio de la Rosa
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Álex Fernández → Sergio Ortuño
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Yann Bodiger
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
43'
40'
Event
José Antonio de la Rosa
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
José Matos
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
38'
Event
Marcos Fernández
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
21'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Ceuta exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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