Cesena vs Südtirol Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi Mon, 6 Apr - 10:30 AM

Serie B

Cesena CES

1 – 1

Südtirol SUD

Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 10:30 AM

Round 33 Regular Season

Federico Davi - 17' (Own Goal)

Fabian Tait - 3'

CONTEXT

The match between Cesena and Südtirol has officially finished, resulting in a 1-1 draw. Both teams found their attacking footing early, going into half-time locked at one goal apiece, and neither side could find a decisive winner in the second half. The contest remained disciplined, with zero red cards issued to impact the overall flow of play. Cesena heavily controlled the tempo, commanding a massive 71% of the possession while Südtirol managed just 29% of the ball. Expected goals (xG) data was entirely unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be determined if the drawn outcome aligned with the underlying chance quality. Despite the stark disparity in possession, the overall efficiency shift was evaluated to be completely in line with standard performance expectations. Heading into the fixture, pre-match markets favored the home side, giving Cesena a 42.9% probability of winning, compared to a 29% chance for a draw and 28.1% for a Südtirol victory. Consequently, the draw meant the final outcome failed to align with the pre-match market expectations. This result produced a significant deviation level of 71% favoring Südtirol, who absorbed the sustained pressure to secure a resilient away point.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Südtirol showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

C. Allegretta

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Santarossa

2nd Assistant

G. Sacchi

4th Official

T. Miniutti

1st Assistant

A. Cole

F. Castori

1.28

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.16

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

2 - 1 - 0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Cesena

42.94%

Draw

28.96%

Südtirol

28.1%

Team Power Ranking

53.97

54.79

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Cesena

Südtirol

Power Score

53.97

54.79

League Position

Global Rank

645

621

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Cesena — Opponent-weighted form score

Südtirol — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cesena Südtirol

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Cesena

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Südtirol

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cesena ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Südtirol

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

17.96

43.10

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

43.10

17.96

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Cesena -2.39 Efficiency Index

Südtirol +2.39 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Cesena

Südtirol

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cesena ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Südtirol

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Cesena Südtirol

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Cesena Südtirol

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Cesena

Südtirol

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Cesena

Südtirol

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Cesena Südtirol

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Cesena Südtirol

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Cesena

Südtirol

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cesena CES Home

3 matches

Südtirol SUD Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-2

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:01:11+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

Match Formation 3-5-2

33 J. Klinsmann

15 A. Ciofi

19 G. Zaro

26 M. Piacentini

27 T. Corazza

25 D. Bisoli

10 S. Bastoni

11 R. Ciervo

14 T. Berti

9 C. Shpendi

7 A. Cerri

31 M. Adamonis

34 F. Veseli

19 N. Pietrangeli

23 F. Davi

7 K. Zedadka

17 D. Casiraghi

18 S. Tronchin

21 F. Tait

79 S. Molina

33 S. Merkaj

11 R. Tonin

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 06, 2026, 10:30 AM

Competition :

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi

Capacity :

20194

Pitch Surface :

Artificial turf

Weather :

☀️ , Clear

Referees :

Davide Santarossa

Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta

Gabriele Sacchi

Thomas Miniutti

Statistics

Possession

CES

66%

SUD

34%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1

1 Big Chances Created 2

2 Shots 5

35 Dangerous attacks 50

71 Possession 29

4 Corners 6

17 Free kicks 10

0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

15 Throwins 17

67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33

9 Dribble Attempts 6

6 Successful Dribbles 2

0 Assists 1

9 Goal Kicks 6

62 Ball Safe 52

7 Goal Attempts 5

0 Hit Woodwork 1

5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

95 Attacks 92

1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

629 Passes 244

547 Successful Passes 156

69 Long Passes 57

8 Key Passes 7

87 Successful Passes Percentage 64

57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32

39 Successful Long Passes 18

Defensive

12 Interceptions 6

55 Duels Won 30

10 Tackles 9

0 Saves 3

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 19

3 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

10 Fouls 17

2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta

Manager ▼

A. Cole Coach

Starting XI ▼

Jonathan Klinsmann Goalkeeper

Andrea Ciofi Defender

Giovanni Zaro Defender

Matteo Piacentini Defender

Tommaso Corazza Defender

Cristian Shpendi Midfielder

Gianluca Frabotta

Defender63'

Simone Bastoni Midfielder

Michele Castagnetti

Midfielder63'

Riccardo Ciervo Midfielder

Ibrahima Papa Wade

Midfielder83'

Tommaso Berti Midfielder

Marco Olivieri

Attacker71'

Dimitri Bisoli Midfielder

Alberto Cerri Attacker

Giacomo Vrioni

Attacker71'

Substitutes ▼

Gianluca Frabotta

Defender63'

Michele Castagnetti

Midfielder63'

Marco Olivieri

Attacker71'

Giacomo Vrioni

Attacker71'

Ibrahima Papa Wade

Midfielder83'

Bench ▼

Alessandro Siano Goalkeeper

Peter Amoran Defender

Vittorio Magni Defender

Massimiliano Mangraviti Defender

Tommaso Arrigoni Midfielder

Matteo Guidi Midfielder

Matteo Francesconi Midfielder

Referee : Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta