Cesena vs Sampdoria Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi Sat, 25 Apr - 5:30 PM
Serie B
Cesena CES
0 – 0
Sampdoria SAM
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 5:30 PM
Round 36 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In a gritty Serie B clash at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Cesena hosted Sampdoria in a match that ended in a hard-fought 0-0 draw. The home team held a slight possession advantage at 51% compared to Sampdoria's 49%, yet both sides struggled to create meaningful scoring opportunities. The first half concluded level at 0-0, with defenses firmly in control and goalkeepers rarely tested. Post-interval, the pattern persisted as midfield battles dominated, preventing any breakthroughs. Sampdoria, viewed as the stronger team, dominated in quality but faltered in execution, resulting in a significant structural deviation from anticipated outcomes. Cesena's organized backline deserves credit for neutralizing threats, ensuring a share of the points. This stalemate underscores the league's competitiveness, where resilience often trumps flair. Both squads displayed discipline without red cards disrupting flow, maintaining an even contest throughout 90 minutes.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Significant 70.8% structural deviation occurred for Sampdoria.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment was unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment did not occur.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No notable events like second-half adjustments influenced the outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced zero distortion in the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

P. Tremolada

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

Marco Colaianni

2nd Assistant

E. Eremitaggio

4th Official

F. Preti

1st Assistant

Cesena A. Cole
A. Cole
VS
Sampdoria Attilio Lombardo
Attilio Lombardo
1.11
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.3
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Palermo Rank: L
Juve Stabia Rank: L
Südtirol Rank: D
Catanzaro Rank: W
Mantova Rank: L
Frosinone Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Monza Rank: L
Pescara Rank: W
Empoli Rank: W
Avellino Rank: W
Carrarese Rank: L
Venezia Rank: D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 2 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Cesena
42.11%
Draw
29.24%
Away Sampdoria
28.66%

Movement

Changes since opening
Cesena
+37.18%
Draw
-61.75%
Sampdoria
+24.59%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
19.93
24.15
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cesena
Sampdoria
Power Score
19.93
24.15
League Position
9
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cesena — Opponent-weighted form score
Sampdoria — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cesena Sampdoria

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Cesena

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sampdoria

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cesena ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sampdoria
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.14
30.61
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.61
23.14
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Cesena -0.71 Efficiency Index
vs
Sampdoria +0.71 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cesena
Sampdoria
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cesena ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sampdoria
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cesena Sampdoria
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cesena Sampdoria
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Cesena
Sampdoria
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Cesena
vs
Sampdoria
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Cesena Sampdoria
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Cesena 0.28
Sampdoria 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Cesena Sampdoria
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Cesena 0.00
Sampdoria 0.00
Cesena
Sampdoria
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CES had peak pressure around 69'.
  • SAM started the game with stronger pressure.
CES Pressure SAM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CES reached the top pressure at 69' (73.93).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cesena CES Home
7 matches
Sampdoria SAM Away
Match Record
3
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
3
Goals
11
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
11
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:07:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Siano
Italy
1 A. Siano
A. Ciofi
Substitution
Italy
15 A. Ciofi
G. Zaro
Italy
19 G. Zaro
M. Mangraviti
Italy
24 M. Mangraviti
T. Corazza
Substitution
Italy
27 T. Corazza
S. Bastoni
Substitution
Italy
10 S. Bastoni
D. Bisoli
Italy
25 D. Bisoli
C. Shpendi
Albania
9 C. Shpendi
T. Berti
Italy
14 T. Berti
M. Olivieri
Substitution
Italy
32 M. Olivieri
A. Cerri
Substitution
Italy
7 A. Cerri
Pitch
T. Martinelli
Italy
50 T. Martinelli
S. Giordano
Italy
21 S. Giordano
M. Viti
Italy
2 M. Viti
D. Hadzikadunic
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
17 D. Hadzikadunic
A. Di Pardo
Italy
29 A. Di Pardo
O. Abildgaard
Substitution
Denmark
28 O. Abildgaard
M. Ricci
Italy
8 M. Ricci
T. Begić
Slovenia
11 T. Begić
L. Henderson
Substitution
Scotland
16 L. Henderson
L. Cherubini
Substitution
Italy
10 L. Cherubini
M. Brunori Sandri
Substitution
Italy
99 M. Brunori Sandri

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 25, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi
Capacity :
20194
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Marco Colaianni
Enrico Eremitaggio
Paride Tremolada
Fabiano Preti

Statistics

Possession
CES
50%
SAM
50%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 3
36 Dangerous attacks 40
51 Possession 49
4 Corners 5
14 Free kicks 16
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

7 Goal Attempts 5
21 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
22 Throwins 13
81 Ball Safe 73
8 Goal Kicks 7
14 Dribble Attempts 11
3 Successful Dribbles 4
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

67 Attacks 71
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

9 Key Passes 8
84 Successful Passes Percentage 86
371 Successful Passes 365
441 Passes 426
48 Long Passes 44
23 Successful Long Passes 19
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43

Defensive

3 Interceptions 9
35 Duels Won 60
11 Tackles 24
3 Saves 2

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 22
5 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

16 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Paride Tremolada

Starting XI ▼

1
Alessandro Siano
Alessandro Siano Goalkeeper
7.38
15
Andrea Ciofi
Andrea Ciofi Defender
6.79
23
Vittorio Magni
Vittorio Magni
Defender87'
6.41
19
Giovanni Zaro
Giovanni Zaro Defender
7.04
24
Massimiliano Mangraviti
Massimiliano Mangraviti Defender
6.77
27
Tommaso Corazza
Tommaso Corazza Defender
6.76
99
Gianluca Frabotta
Gianluca Frabotta
Defender54'
6.92
9
Cristian Shpendi
Cristian Shpendi Midfielder
6.73
10
Simone Bastoni
Simone Bastoni Midfielder
6.66
8
Gaetano Castrovilli
Gaetano Castrovilli
Midfielder55'
6.69
14
Tommaso Berti
Tommaso Berti Midfielder
7.04
25
Dimitri Bisoli
Dimitri Bisoli Midfielder
6.83
32
Marco Olivieri
Marco Olivieri Midfielder
6.65
22
Giacomo Vrioni
Giacomo Vrioni
Attacker87'
6.54
7
Alberto Cerri
Alberto Cerri Attacker
7.08
11
Riccardo Ciervo
Riccardo Ciervo
Attacker79'
6.86
Referee : Paride Tremolada

Starting XI ▼

50
Tommaso Martinelli
Tommaso Martinelli Goalkeeper
6.77
2
Mattia Viti
Mattia Viti Defender
6.7
17
Dennis Hadzikadunic
Dennis Hadzikadunic Defender
6.8
13
Matteo Palma
Matteo Palma
Defender65'
6.89
21
Simone Giordano
Simone Giordano Defender
6.69
29
Alessandro Di Pardo
Alessandro Di Pardo Defender
6.95
8
Matteo Ricci
Matteo Ricci Midfielder
6.7
10
Luigi Cherubini
Luigi Cherubini Midfielder
6.9
7
Manuel Cicconi
Manuel Cicconi
Midfielder84'
6.97
11
Tjas Begic
Tjas Begic Midfielder
6.89
16
Liam Henderson
Liam Henderson Midfielder
6.82
23
Fabio Depaoli
Fabio Depaoli
Defender65'
6.64
28
Oliver Abildgaard
Oliver Abildgaard Midfielder
6.92
33
Francesco Conti
Francesco Conti
Midfielder75'
6.75
99
Matteo Luigi Brunori
Matteo Luigi Brunori Attacker
6.83
92
Edoardo Soleri
Edoardo Soleri
Attacker84'
6.62

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Gianluca Frabotta
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Vittorio Magni → Andrea Ciofi
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Giacomo Vrioni → Marco Olivieri
10th Substitution
87'
84'
Event
Manuel Cicconi → Luigi Cherubini
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Edoardo Soleri → Matteo Luigi Brunori
8th Substitution
Event
Riccardo Ciervo → Alberto Cerri
6th Substitution
79'
75'
Event
Francesco Conti → Oliver Abildgaard
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Matteo Palma → Dennis Hadzikadunic
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Fabio Depaoli → Liam Henderson
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Oliver Abildgaard
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
57'
Event
Dennis Hadzikadunic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Gaetano Castrovilli → Simone Bastoni
2nd Substitution
55'
Event
Gianluca Frabotta → Tommaso Corazza
1st Substitution
54'
1ST-HALF
30'
Event
Luigi Cherubini
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
9'
Event
Mattia Viti
Goal disallowed

CONCLUSION

Cesena and Sampdoria's 0-0 deadlock highlighted defensive mastery in Serie B, with the home side's 51% possession barely translating to chances. Sampdoria, the stronger team on paper, endured a significant deviation by failing to win, exposing conversion issues despite parity. Halftime at 0-0 set a cautious tone carried into a second half devoid of drama or disruptions. This result denies Sampdoria vital points in the promotion race while boosting Cesena's survival hopes through resilience. Without xG insights or market consistency, the draw reflects balanced play where no side gained clear edge, emphasizing need for sharper finishing ahead.

Cesena vs Sampdoria preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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