Cesena vs Frosinone Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi Sat, 14 Mar - 2:00 PM

Serie B

Cesena CES

2 – 2

Frosinone FRO

Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 2:00 PM

Tommaso Corazza - 79', 59'

Farès Ghedjemis - 72'

Niccolò Corrado - 40'

CONTEXT

The match between Cesena and Frosinone has finished with a full-time score of 2-2. Frosinone entered the half-time break holding a narrow 1-0 lead, but Cesena fought back in the second period to force a share of the points. Before kickoff, Frosinone was viewed as the stronger team. The pre-match market gave them a 39.7% chance of victory, compared to a 34% chance for Cesena and a 26.3% probability of a draw. Because the match ended in a tie, the final outcome did not align with the market's primary expectation. This resulted in a significant deviation of 73.7%, with Frosinone being the team that fell short of pre-game projections. Statistically, the game was tightly contested. Frosinone maintained a slight edge in possession with 52%, leaving Cesena with 48% of the ball. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the final draw was consistent with the overall quality of chances created. The flow of the game was not impacted by dismissals, as neither side received a red card. Ultimately, the match's efficiency shift remained in line with overall statistical expectations.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Frosinone showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

L. Massimi

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Di Gioia

1st Assistant

Gilberto Laghezza

2nd Assistant

R. Lovison

4th Official

M. Mignani

M. Alvini

1.24

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.96

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

5 - 3 - 5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Cesena

34.01%

Draw

26.33%

Frosinone

39.66%

Team Power Ranking

53.51

64.02

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Cesena

Frosinone

Power Score

53.51

64.02

League Position

Global Rank

646

335

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Cesena — Opponent-weighted form score

Frosinone — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cesena Frosinone

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Cesena

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Frosinone

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cesena ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Frosinone

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

35.21

52.31

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

52.31

35.21

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Cesena -1.63 Efficiency Index

Frosinone +1.63 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Cesena

Frosinone

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cesena ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Frosinone

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Cesena Frosinone

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Cesena Frosinone

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Cesena

Frosinone

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cesena CES Home

3 matches

Frosinone FRO Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-3

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T00:55:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2

Match Formation 4-3-3

33 J. Klinsmann

15 (C) A. Ciofi

19 G. Zaro

26 M. Piacentini

11 R. Ciervo

14 T. Berti

4 M. Castagnetti

25 D. Bisoli

18 M. Guidi

7 A. Cerri

9 C. Shpendi

22 L. Palmisani

19 N. Corrado

6 J. Gelli

3 G. Calvani

20 A. Oyono Omva Torque

16 M. Cichella

14 (C) G. Calò

8 I. Koutsoupias

17 G. Kvernadze

9 A. Raimondo

7 F. Ghedjemis

General Information

Date & Time :

Mar 14, 2026, 02:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

Stadium :

Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi

Capacity :

20194

Pitch Surface :

Artificial turf

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Vittorio Di Gioia

Luca Massimi

Gilberto Laghezza

Roberto Lovison

Statistics

Possession

CES

49%

FRO

51%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2

7 Big Chances Created 2

6 Shots 7

38 Dangerous attacks 64

48 Possession 52

1 Corners 5

12 Free kicks 18

4 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Hit Woodwork 1

6 Successful Dribbles 6

13 Goal Attempts 19

91 Ball Safe 77

14 Dribble Attempts 18

2 Assists 2

14 Goal Kicks 7

43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33

1 Penalties 0

1 Injuries 1

5 Substitutions 5

15 Throwins 14

Attacking

79 Attacks 97

7 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

79 Successful Passes Percentage 82

68 Long Passes 47

356 Passes 368

10 Key Passes 20

34 Successful Long Passes 14

281 Successful Passes 300

50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30

Defensive

3 Interceptions 6

5 Saves 4

18 Tackles 11

Build-up

8 Total Crosses 22

2 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

4 Offsides 2

17 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Luca Massimi

Manager ▼

M. Mignani Coach

Starting XI ▼

Jonathan Klinsmann Goalkeeper

7.17

Andrea Ciofi (C) Defender

6.52

Peter Amoran

Defender73'

6.34

Giovanni Zaro Defender

6.66

Matteo Piacentini Defender

6.62

Michele Castagnetti Midfielder

7.32

Riccardo Ciervo Midfielder

6.49

Tommaso Berti Midfielder

7.2

Giacomo Vrioni

Attacker85'

6.47

Matteo Guidi Midfielder

6.6

Dimitri Bisoli Midfielder

6.43

Simone Bastoni

Midfielder73'

6.58

Alberto Cerri Attacker

7.57

Cristian Shpendi Attacker

6.04

Matteo Francesconi

Midfielder85'

6.35

Substitutes ▼

Tommaso Corazza

Defender57'

8.56

Simone Bastoni

Midfielder73'

6.58

Peter Amoran

Defender73'

6.34

Giacomo Vrioni

Attacker85'

6.47

Matteo Francesconi

Midfielder85'

6.35

Bench ▼

Niccolò Fontana Goalkeeper

Luca Ferretti Goalkeeper

Mamadou Kebbeh Defender

Tommaso Arrigoni Midfielder

Ibrahima Papa Wade Midfielder

Riccardo Domeniconi Midfielder

Marco Olivieri Attacker

Referee : Luca Massimi