Cesena vs Calcio Padova Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi Fri, 8 May - 6:30 PM
Serie B
Cesena CES
3 Winner 4
Calcio Padova PAD
Full Time Fri, 8 May 6:30 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
Cristian Shpendi - 45+2', 5'
Alberto Cerri - 7'
Goal
|
Goal
Alessandro Seghetti - 84'
Gianluca Caprari - 17'
Luca Di Maggio - 13', 2'

CONTEXT

Cesena hosted Calcio Padova in a dramatic Serie C clash that concluded 3-4 for the visitors. The first half was a goal frenzy, tied at 3-3, showcasing both teams' attacking intent amid Cesena's 58% possession dominance. As the designated stronger team, Cesena pushed forward but conceded the winner in the second half, where Padova capitalized on transitions despite holding only 42% of the ball. No red cards disrupted play, and second-half adjustments were absent, allowing the game to flow naturally. This high-scoring affair highlighted Padova's clinical edge over Cesena's control. Structural deviation measured minimal at 5.8% favoring Padova, with efficiency in line throughout. The result flips pre-match favoritism, emphasizing efficiency in limited chances.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Structural deviation was minimal at 5.8% favoring Calcio Padova.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment confirmed as true for the outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No events or adjustments impacted the second half.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Arena

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Allegretta

4th Official

Italy

C. Rinaldi

2nd Assistant

Italy

M. Emmanuele

1st Assistant

Italy

League averages

Serie B Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 27.27
Yellow cards / match 4.04
Red cards / match 0.31
Penalties / match 0.29
Cesena A. Cole
A. Cole
VS
Calcio Padova R. Breda
R. Breda
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.12
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Carrarese Rank: 54 D
Sampdoria Rank: 52 D
Palermo Rank: 63 L
Juve Stabia Rank: 56 L
Südtirol Rank: 52 D
Catanzaro Rank: 60 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pescara Rank: 49 W
Virtus Entella Rank: 48 L
Reggiana Rank: 47 W
Empoli Rank: 55 W
Frosinone Rank: 69 L
Palermo Rank: 64 L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 2 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Cesena
0.19%
Draw
5.65%
Away Calcio Padova
94.16%

Movement

Changes since opening
Cesena
-0.28%
Draw
-4.93%
Calcio Padova
+5.21%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52
49.61
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cesena
Calcio Padova
Power Score
52
49.61
League Position
10
9
Global Rank
733
764

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cesena — Opponent-weighted form score
Calcio Padova — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cesena Calcio Padova

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Cesena

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Calcio Padova

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cesena ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Calcio Padova
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
58.79
41.31
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
41.31
58.79
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Cesena +1.67 Efficiency Index
vs
Calcio Padova -1.67 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cesena
Calcio Padova
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cesena ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Calcio Padova
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cesena Calcio Padova
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cesena Calcio Padova
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Cesena
Calcio Padova
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Cesena
vs
Calcio Padova
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Cesena Calcio Padova
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Cesena 0.37
Calcio Padova 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Cesena Calcio Padova
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Cesena 0.09
Calcio Padova 0.04
Cesena
Calcio Padova
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CES had peak pressure around 41'.
  • CES started the game with stronger pressure.
CES Pressure PAD Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CES reached the top pressure at 41' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cesena CES Home
8 matches
Calcio Padova PAD Away
Match Record
4
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
4
Goals
10
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
10
+5
Goal Difference
-5

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T00:02:25+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
A. Siano
Italy
1 A. Siano
A. Ciofi
Italy
15 A. Ciofi
G. Zaro
Italy
19 G. Zaro
M. Mangraviti
Italy
24 M. Mangraviti
T. Corazza
Substitution
Italy
27 T. Corazza
D. Bisoli
Italy
25 D. Bisoli
S. Bastoni
Substitution
Italy
10 S. Bastoni
C. Shpendi
Albania
9 C. Shpendi
T. Berti
Italy
14 T. Berti
M. Olivieri
Italy
32 M. Olivieri
A. Cerri
Substitution
Italy
7 A. Cerri
Pitch
M. Fortin
Italy
14 M. Fortin
C. Pastina
Italy
58 C. Pastina
M. Perrotta
Substitution
Italy
5 M. Perrotta
C. Faedo
Italy
72 C. Faedo
J. Silva Pertinhes
Brazil
41 J. Silva Pertinhes
L. Di Maggio
Substitution
Italy
23 L. Di Maggio
G. Giunti
Italy
86 G. Giunti
P. Fusi
Substitution
Italy
8 P. Fusi
P. Ghiglione
Substitution
Italy
18 P. Ghiglione
A. Seghetti
Italy
11 A. Seghetti
G. Caprari
Substitution
Italy
24 G. Caprari

General Information

Date & Time :
May 08, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi
Capacity :
20194
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Alberto Arena
Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta
Carlo Rinaldi
Marco Emmanuele

Statistics

Possession
CES
57%
PAD
43%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 4
6 Big Chances Created 2
22 Shots 12
82 Dangerous attacks 47
58 Possession 42
11 Corners 3
11 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

15 Dribble Attempts 15
3 Assists 3
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
24 Throwins 14
10 Successful Dribbles 7
86 Ball Safe 95
16 Goal Attempts 12
3 Goal Kicks 9
3 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 1
2 Injuries 1

Attacking

122 Attacks 84
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

16 Successful Long Passes 27
85 Successful Passes Percentage 82
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
509 Passes 373
434 Successful Passes 307
35 Long Passes 59
26 Key Passes 9

Defensive

2 Interceptions 9
14 Tackles 10
46 Duels Won 39
2 Saves 8

Build-up

40 Total Crosses 18
13 Accurate Crosses 9

Discipline

11 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Alberto Arena

Starting XI ▼

1
Alessandro Siano
Alessandro Siano Goalkeeper
15
Andrea Ciofi
Andrea Ciofi Defender
19
Giovanni Zaro
Giovanni Zaro Defender
24
Massimiliano Mangraviti
Massimiliano Mangraviti Defender
27
Tommaso Corazza
Tommaso Corazza Defender
11
Riccardo Ciervo
Riccardo Ciervo
Attacker79'
9
Cristian Shpendi
Cristian Shpendi Midfielder
2
10
Simone Bastoni
Simone Bastoni Midfielder
4
Michele Castagnetti
Michele Castagnetti
Midfielder66'
14
Tommaso Berti
Tommaso Berti Midfielder
25
Dimitri Bisoli
Dimitri Bisoli Midfielder
32
Marco Olivieri
Marco Olivieri Midfielder
7
Alberto Cerri
Alberto Cerri Attacker
22
Giacomo Vrioni
Giacomo Vrioni
Attacker62'
Referee : Alberto Arena

Starting XI ▼

14
Mattia Fortin
Mattia Fortin Goalkeeper
5
Marco Perrotta
Marco Perrotta Defender
13
Alessandro Boi
Alessandro Boi
Defender74'
58
Christian Pastina
Christian Pastina Defender
72
Carlo Faedo
Carlo Faedo Defender
8
Pietro Fusi
Pietro Fusi Midfielder
30
Giulio Favale
Giulio Favale
Defender46'
18
Paolo Ghiglione
Paolo Ghiglione Midfielder
17
Alessandro Capelli
Alessandro Capelli
Midfielder63'
23
Luca Di Maggio
Luca Di Maggio Midfielder
2
92
Cristian Buonaiuto
Cristian Buonaiuto
Attacker62'
41
Jonathan Silva
Jonathan Silva Midfielder
86
Giovanni Giunti
Giovanni Giunti Midfielder
11
Alessandro Seghetti
Alessandro Seghetti Attacker
24
Gianluca Caprari
Gianluca Caprari Attacker
7
Kevin Varas
Kevin Varas
Midfielder81'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Jonathan Silva
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Marco Olivieri
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+2'
87'
Event
Christian Pastina
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Alessandro Seghetti
Left foot shot / 7th Goal
81'
Event
Kevin Varas → Gianluca Caprari
8th Substitution
Event
Riccardo Ciervo → Tommaso Corazza
7th Substitution
79'
74'
Event
Alessandro Boi → Marco Perrotta
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Giovanni Giunti
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Michele Castagnetti → Simone Bastoni
5th Substitution
66'
63'
Event
Alessandro Capelli → Paolo Ghiglione
4th Substitution
Event
Giacomo Vrioni → Alberto Cerri
3rd Substitution
62'
62'
Event
Cristian Buonaiuto → Luca Di Maggio
2nd Substitution
Event
Massimiliano Mangraviti
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
51'
50'
Event
Marco Perrotta
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
Event
Giulio Favale → Pietro Fusi
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Cristian Shpendi
Left foot shot / 6th Goal
45+2'
17'
Event
Gianluca Caprari
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
13'
Event
Luca Di Maggio
Header / 4th Goal
Event
Alberto Cerri
Header / 3rd Goal
7'
Event
Cristian Shpendi
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
5'
2'
Event
Luca Di Maggio
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marco Olivieri receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Marco Olivieri's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Update Update
Massimiliano Mangraviti's header hits the post.
90
Attempt Attempt
Dimitri Bisoli takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
90
Attempt Attempt
Cristian Shpendi takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jonathan Silva receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Carlo Faedo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Seghetti's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Seghetti's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Giulio Favale takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Alexander Seghetti with his right foot hits the post.
89
Attempt Attempt
Gaetano Castrovilli has a right-footed shot that is blocked.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Christian Pastina receives a yellow card.
84
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Alexander Seghetti with his left foot results in a goal.
81
Update Update
Kevin Varas replaces Gianluca Caprari.
80
Attempt Attempt
Giulio Favale takes a left-footed shot but misses.
79
Update Update
Riccardo Ciervo comes on for Tommaso Corazza.
77
Attempt Attempt
Cristian Shpendi takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
76
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Corazza takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
74
Update Update
Alessandro Boi comes on for Marco Perrotta.
73
Attempt Attempt
Giovanni Zaro attempts a header but misses the shot.
70
Attempt Attempt
Marco Olivieri's right-footed shot is saved.
66
Update Update
Michele Castagnetti comes on for Simone Bastoni.
66
Attempt Attempt
Giacomo Vrioni attempts a header but misses the shot.
66
Attempt Attempt
Marco Olivieri takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
63
Update Update
Alessandro Capelli is on, and Paolo Ghiglione is off.
62
Update Update
Giacomo Vrioni comes on for Alberto Cerri.
62
Update Update
Cristian Buonaiuto comes on for Luca Di Maggio.
59
Attempt Attempt
Cristian Shpendi takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
49
Attempt Attempt
Alberto Cerri's header is saved.
47
Attempt Attempt
Cristian Shpendi attempts a header but misses the shot.
46
Update Update
Giulio Favale is on, and Pietro Fusi is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Gianluca Caprari takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Cristian Shpendi scores with a left-footed shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Cristian Shpendi scores with a left-footed shot.
40
Attempt Attempt
Alberto Cerri's header is saved.
39
Attempt Attempt
Marco Olivieri takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
37
Attempt Attempt
Dimitri Bisoli takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
36
Attempt Attempt
Massimiliano Mangraviti attempts a header but misses the shot.
33
Attempt Attempt
Marco Olivieri takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Giovanni Giunti takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Christian Pastina takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Simone Bastoni takes a right-footed shot but misses.
26
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Corazza takes a shot with his right foot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Pietro Fusi has a left-footed shot that is blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Simone Bastoni's right-footed shot is blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Simone Bastoni takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Marco Olivieri takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
Gianluca Caprari takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Luca Di Maggio scores, making it 2-2.
13
Update Update
Luca Di Maggio scores with a header.
12
Attempt Attempt
Simone Bastoni takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
11
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Corazza's right-footed shot is blocked.
10
Attempt Attempt
Cristian Shpendi takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
7
Update Update
Alberto Cerri scores with a header.
5
Attempt Attempt
Cristian Shpendi takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
2
Attempt Attempt
Luca Di Maggio takes a right-footed shot and scores.

CONCLUSION

Calcio Padova's 4-3 victory over stronger home side Cesena underscores football's emphasis on conversion over control. Cesena's 58% possession and 3-3 halftime lead evaporated as Padova struck decisively post-interval. Without red cards or tactical shifts, the match exposed Cesena's defensive lapses against counters. Minimal 5.8% structural deviation and aligned efficiency indicate a plausible upset within bounds. Lacking xG metrics limits shot quality analysis, yet Padova's finishing efficiency proved pivotal. Cesena must address second-half fragility, while Padova builds confidence from overturning favoritism.

Cesena vs Calcio Padova preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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