Cercle Brugge vs Dender Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium

Jan Breydelstadion Fri, 24 Apr - 6:45 PM

Pro League

Cercle Brugge CBR

Dender DEN

Full Time Fri, 24 Apr 6:45 PM

Round 4 Relegation Round

Oumar Diakité - 69', 29'

Malcolm Viltard - 84'

CONTEXT

Cercle Brugge claimed a 2-1 home win against Dender, leading 1-0 at halftime and extending their advantage in the second half before conceding once. The hosts dominated possession with 52% to Dender's 48%, maintaining control throughout without any red cards disrupting play. As the identified stronger team, Cercle Brugge's performance showed minimal structural deviation of 5.3%, aligning closely with pre-match market assessments that favored them heavily. Efficiency remained in line with expectations, though xG data was unavailable to quantify chance quality further. No second-half adjustments or knockout elements influenced the outcome, resulting in a straightforward victory that matched the home side's superior standing. The final score reflected balanced play with a narrow margin.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Structural deviation measured minimal at 5.3% favoring Cercle Brugge.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
Market alignment: Market alignment confirmed true with home win matching expectations.
xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
Event impact: No notable events altered the match dynamics.
Red card distortion: Red card distortion absent as no dismissals occurred.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

B. Van Driessche

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Vitse

4th Official

T. Vanpoucke

1st Assistant

J. Vermeire

2nd Assistant

L. Friis

A. Abdul Raouf

1.23

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.86

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

4 - 3 - 2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Cercle Brugge

94.72%

Draw

5.09%

Dender

0.19%

Team Power Ranking

22.35

14.57

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Cercle Brugge

Dender

Power Score

22.35

14.57

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Cercle Brugge — Opponent-weighted form score

Dender — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cercle Brugge Dender

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Cercle Brugge

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Dender

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cercle Brugge ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Dender

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

23.46

34.06

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

34.06

23.46

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Cercle Brugge -1.00 Efficiency Index

Dender +1.00 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Cercle Brugge

Dender

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cercle Brugge ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Dender

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Cercle Brugge Dender

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Cercle Brugge Dender

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Cercle Brugge

Dender

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Cercle Brugge

Dender

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Cercle Brugge Dender

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Cercle Brugge Dender

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Cercle Brugge

Dender

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

DEN had peak pressure around 57'.
DEN started the game with stronger pressure.

CBR Pressure DEN Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: DEN reached the top pressure at 57' (63.54).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cercle Brugge CBR Home

9 matches

Dender DEN Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-7

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:02:14+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

1 W. Stellion Lisboa Oliveira

5 E. Kakou

24 G. Kondo

12 V. Konaté

2 I. Diakité

19 M. Diaby

28 H. Van der Bruggen

37 E. Diop

20 F. Jacinto Nazinho

10 O. Diakité

9 S. Ngoura

30 G. Dietsch

7 B. Goncalves

6 B. De Kerf

5 L. Marijnissen

70 J. Sambu Mansoni

24 M. Viltard

18 N. Rodes

11 R. Oratmangoen

23 D. Acquah

27 A. Jahanbakhsh

9 D. Toshevski

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 24, 2026, 06:45 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 4 · Relegation Round

Stadium :

Jan Breydelstadion

Capacity :

29975

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Bram Van Driessche

Jasper Vitse

Tom Vanpoucke

J. Vermeire

Statistics

Possession

CBR

52%

DEN

48%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1

1 Big Chances Created 0

2 Shots 5

64 Dangerous attacks 67

52 Possession 48

7 Corners 6

9 Free kicks 9

0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

7 Successful Dribbles 6

47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 23

15 Dribble Attempts 26

21 Throwins 31

8 Goal Kicks 4

2 Assists 0

5 Substitutions 5

0 Hit Woodwork 1

7 Goal Attempts 8

84 Ball Safe 85

1 Injuries 0

Attacking

85 Attacks 70

Possession

446 Passes 399

80 Successful Passes Percentage 75

359 Successful Passes 298

46 Long Passes 76

50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43

23 Successful Long Passes 33

8 Key Passes 7

Defensive

70 Duels Won 45

32 Tackles 18

10 Interceptions 11

2 Saves 3

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 20

3 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

2 Offsides 6

9 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Bram Van Driessche

Manager ▼

L. Friis Coach

Starting XI ▼

Warleson Goalkeeper

6.93

Emmanuel Kakou Defender

6.84

Valy Konaté Defender

6.87

Geoffrey Kondo Defender

7.06

Ibrahim Diakité Midfielder

6.53

Heriberto Jurado

Midfielder81'

6.54

Ibrahima Diaby Midfielder

6.67

Lawrence Agyekum

Midfielder73'

6.76

Nazinho Midfielder

7.13

Hannes Van Der Bruggen Midfielder

6.81

Pieter Gerkens

Midfielder46'

6.88

Edan Diop Midfielder

6.99

Steve Ngoura Attacker

6.74

Dante Vanzeir

Attacker62'

6.41

Oumar Diakité Attacker

6.76

Oluwaseun Adewumi

Attacker73'

6.63

Substitutes ▼

Pieter Gerkens

Midfielder46'

6.88

Dante Vanzeir

Attacker62'

6.41

Oluwaseun Adewumi

Attacker73'

6.63

Lawrence Agyekum

Midfielder73'

6.76

Heriberto Jurado

Midfielder81'

6.54

Bench ▼

Maxime Delanghe Goalkeeper

6.58

Nils De Wilde Defender

6.51

Royer Caicedo Defender

6.4

Sebbe Gheerardyns Defender

Referee : Bram Van Driessche