Celtic vs St. Mirren Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland

Celtic Park Sat, 11 Apr - 2:00 PM

Premiership

Celtic CEL

St. Mirren STM

Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 2:00 PM

Round 33 Regular Season

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain - 15'

CONTEXT

The match between Celtic and St. Mirren is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 1-0 to the home side. Celtic led 1-0 at the interval and successfully protected their narrow advantage through the second period, with no further goals scored by either team. The result showed minimal deviation from pre-match expectations, as Celtic fulfilled their status as the stronger side and claimed the victory widely anticipated beforehand. Possession was shared unevenly, with Celtic holding 56 percent to St. Mirren’s 44 percent, though no expected goals data is available to provide further context on chance quality. Efficiency remained in line with expectations across the contest, and the outcome aligned fully with the pre-match projection. No red cards were issued to either side, leaving the result unaffected by any disciplinary events or second-half adjustments.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Celtic showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

D. Nicolson

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Anderson

2nd Assistant

D. Graves

4th Official

F. Connor

1st Assistant

M. O'Neill

C. McLeish

1.88

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.84

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

44 - 6 - 3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Celtic

96.11%

Draw

3.7%

St. Mirren

0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening

Celtic

+0.88%

Draw

-0.88%

St. Mirren

Team Power Ranking

40.12

22.24

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Celtic

St. Mirren

Power Score

40.12

22.24

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Celtic — Opponent-weighted form score

St. Mirren — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Celtic St. Mirren

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Celtic

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

St. Mirren

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Celtic ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy St. Mirren

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

18.04

15.68

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

15.68

18.04

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Celtic +0.23 Efficiency Index

St. Mirren -0.23 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Celtic

St. Mirren

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Celtic ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy St. Mirren

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Celtic St. Mirren

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Celtic St. Mirren

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Celtic

St. Mirren

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Celtic

St. Mirren

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Celtic St. Mirren

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Celtic St. Mirren

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Celtic

St. Mirren

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

STM had peak pressure around 56'.
CEL started the game with stronger pressure.

CEL Pressure STM Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: STM reached the top pressure at 56' (70.70).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 53 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Celtic CEL Home

53 matches

St. Mirren STM Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

138

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

138

+110

Goal Difference

-110

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:06:41+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

Match Formation 3-4-1-2

12 V. Sinisalo

56 A. Ralston

6 A. Trusty

5 L. Scales

63 K. Tierney

42 C. McGregor

21 A. Oxlade-Chamberlain

13 H. Yang

8 B. Nygren

38 D. Maeda

11 T. Čvančara

1 S. George

21 M. Freckleton

13 A. Gogić

4 L. Donnelly

24 D. John

16 A. Campbell

8 J. Devaney

6 M. O'Hara

88 K. Phillips

9 M. Mandron

11 J. Ayunga

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 11, 2026, 02:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 33 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Celtic Park

Capacity :

60411

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Scott Robert Anderson

Duncan Nicolson

Daniel Graves

Frank Connor

Statistics

Possession

CEL

56%

STM

44%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0

3 Big Chances Created 0

2 Shots 1

62 Dangerous attacks 38

56 Possession 44

3 Corners 7

14 Free kicks 12

0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

22 Throwins 11

38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44

16 Dribble Attempts 9

6 Successful Dribbles 4

4 Goal Kicks 6

10 Successful Headers 6

84 Ball Safe 74

4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

108 Attacks 66

2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

5 Key Passes 4

600 Passes 462

91 Successful Passes Percentage 86

59 Long Passes 69

544 Successful Passes 399

64 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52

38 Successful Long Passes 36

Defensive

1 Saves 3

6 Interceptions 5

13 Tackles 20

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 4

21 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

2 Offsides 5

12 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Duncan Nicolson

Manager ▼

M. O'Neill Coach

Starting XI ▼

Viljami Sinisalo Goalkeeper

Liam Scales Defender

Auston Trusty Defender

Anthony Ralston Defender

Kieran Tierney Defender

Benjamin Nygren Midfielder

Arne Engels

Midfielder63'

Hyun-jun Yang Midfielder

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain Midfielder

Luke McCowan

Midfielder73'

Daizen Maeda Midfielder

Callum McGregor Midfielder

Reo Hatate

Midfielder73'

Tomas Cvancara Attacker

Kelechi Iheanacho

Attacker62'

Substitutes ▼

Kelechi Iheanacho

Attacker62'

Arne Engels

Midfielder63'

Reo Hatate

Midfielder73'

Luke McCowan

Midfielder73'

Bench ▼

Ross Doohan Goalkeeper

Marcelo Saracchi Defender

Benjamin Arthur Defender

James Forrest Midfielder

Sebastian Tounekti Attacker

Referee : Duncan Nicolson