Celtic vs Rangers Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Celtic Park Sun, 10 May - 11:00 AM
Premiership
Celtic CEL
3 Winner 1
Rangers RAN
Full Time Sun, 10 May 11:00 AM
Round 36 2nd Phase
Daizen Maeda - 57', 53'
Hyun-jun Yang - 23'
Goal
|
Goal
Mikey Moore - 9'

CONTEXT

Celtic triumphed 3-1 over Rangers in a closely contested match. The sides were level at 1-1 at halftime, reflecting the even nature of the first period with Celtic holding 51% possession to Rangers' 49%. As the stronger team entering the game, Celtic capitalized in the second half to secure the victory without any red cards disrupting play. The result marked a significant structural deviation of 50.3% in Celtic's favor, highlighting their dominance despite the balanced possession. Pre-match expectations leaned towards Celtic, and the outcome aligned with those projections. No major tactical adjustments were noted in the second half, allowing Celtic's quality to prevail in this high-stakes encounter.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Celtic's 3-1 win showed a significant structural deviation of 50.3%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for evaluation.
  • Event impact: No key events or adjustments altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

N. Walsh

Scotland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. McDermid

4th Official

Scotland

F. Connor

1st Assistant

Scotland

D. McFarlane

2nd Assistant

Scotland

League averages

Premiership Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 18.45
Yellow cards / match 3.11
Red cards / match 0.18
Penalties / match 0.2
Celtic M. O'Neill
M. O'Neill
VS
Rangers D. Röhl
D. Röhl
2.08
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.13
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hibernian Rank: 68 W
Falkirk Rank: 65 W
St. Mirren Rank: 55 W
Dundee Rank: 60 W
Dundee United Rank: 61 L
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hearts Rank: 74 L
Motherwell Rank: 66 L
Falkirk Rank: 65 W
Dundee United Rank: 61 W
Aberdeen Rank: 60 W
St. Mirren Rank: 55 W
28
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
28 - 14 - 23
23

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Celtic
49.7%
Draw
24.44%
Away Rangers
25.85%

Movement

Changes since opening
Celtic
-48.19%
Draw
+22.52%
Rangers
+25.65%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
79.14
75.95
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Celtic
Rangers
Power Score
79.14
75.95
League Position
3
3
Global Rank
67
100

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Celtic — Opponent-weighted form score
Rangers — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Celtic Rangers

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Celtic

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rangers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Celtic ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rangers
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.25
23.47
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.47
22.25
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Celtic -0.12 Efficiency Index
vs
Rangers +0.12 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Celtic
Rangers
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Celtic ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rangers
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Celtic Rangers
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Celtic Rangers
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Celtic
Rangers
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Celtic
vs
Rangers
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Celtic Rangers
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Celtic 0.19
Rangers 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Celtic Rangers
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Celtic 0.02
Rangers 0.06
Celtic
Rangers
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RAN had peak pressure around 97'.
  • RAN started the game with stronger pressure.
CEL Pressure RAN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RAN reached the top pressure at 97' (88.19).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 65 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Celtic CEL Home
65 matches
Rangers RAN Away
Match Record
28
Wins
23
14
Draws
14
23
Losses
28
Goals
97
Goals Scored
81
81
Goals Conceded
97
+16
Goal Difference
-16

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:02:10+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
V. Sinisalo
Finland
12 V. Sinisalo
A. Johnston
Substitution
Canada
2 A. Johnston
A. Trusty
United States
6 A. Trusty
L. Scales
Republic of Ireland
5 L. Scales
K. Tierney
Substitution
Scotland
63 K. Tierney
A. Engels
Belgium
27 A. Engels
C. McGregor
Scotland
42 C. McGregor
L. McCowan
Substitution
Scotland
14 L. McCowan
B. Nygren
Substitution
Sweden
8 B. Nygren
H. Yang
Substitution
South Korea
13 H. Yang
D. Maeda
Japan
38 D. Maeda
Pitch
J. Butland
England
1 J. Butland
T. Rommens
Belgium
25 T. Rommens
E. Fernandez
England
37 E. Fernandez
N. Djiga
Burkina Faso
24 N. Djiga
J. Tavernier
Substitution
England
2 J. Tavernier
T. Chukwuani
Substitution
Denmark
42 T. Chukwuani
C. Barron
Scotland
8 C. Barron
M. Moore
England
47 M. Moore
M. Diomande
Substitution
Ivory Coast
10 M. Diomande
O. Antman
Substitution
Finland
18 O. Antman
Y. Ramalho Chermiti
Portugal
9 Y. Ramalho Chermiti

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 11:00 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 36 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Celtic Park
Capacity :
60411
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Matthew McDermid
N. Walsh
Frank Connor
Daniel McFarlane

Statistics

Possession
CEL
50%
RAN
50%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 3
47 Dangerous attacks 50
51 Possession 49
1 Corners 7
15 Free kicks 27
6 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 6
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
18 Throwins 17
73 Ball Safe 86
14 Dribble Attempts 15
5 Successful Dribbles 7
7 Goal Attempts 4
2 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 4
0 Hit Woodwork 1
2 Injuries 0

Attacking

104 Attacks 85
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

81 Successful Passes Percentage 78
344 Successful Passes 310
423 Passes 400
30 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30
37 Long Passes 53
11 Successful Long Passes 16
8 Key Passes 7

Defensive

2 Saves 1
51 Duels Won 67
6 Interceptions 6
15 Tackles 20

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 24
3 Accurate Crosses 10

Discipline

25 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : N. Walsh

Starting XI ▼

12
Viljami Sinisalo
Viljami Sinisalo Goalkeeper
2
Alistair Johnston
Alistair Johnston Defender
56
Anthony Ralston
Anthony Ralston
Defender81'
5
Liam Scales
Liam Scales Defender
6
Auston Trusty
Auston Trusty Defender
63
Kieran Tierney
Kieran Tierney Defender
36
Marcelo Saracchi
Marcelo Saracchi
Defender84'
8
Benjamin Nygren
Benjamin Nygren Midfielder
41
Reo Hatate
Reo Hatate
Midfielder76'
13
Hyun-jun Yang
Hyun-jun Yang Midfielder
17
Kelechi Iheanacho
Kelechi Iheanacho
Attacker81'
14
Luke McCowan
Luke McCowan Midfielder
23
Sebastian Tounekti
Sebastian Tounekti
Attacker46'
27
Arne Engels
Arne Engels Midfielder
42
Callum McGregor
Callum McGregor Midfielder
38
Daizen Maeda
Daizen Maeda Attacker
2
Referee : N. Walsh

Starting XI ▼

1
Jack Butland
Jack Butland Goalkeeper
2
James Tavernier
James Tavernier Defender
21
Dujon Sterling
Dujon Sterling
Defender59'
24
Nasser Djiga
Nasser Djiga Defender
25
Tuur Rommens
Tuur Rommens Defender
37
Emmanuel Fernandez
Emmanuel Fernandez Defender
8
Connor Barron
Connor Barron Midfielder
10
Mohamed Diomandé
Mohamed Diomandé Midfielder
11
Thelo Aasgaard
Thelo Aasgaard
Midfielder59'
18
Oliver Antman
Oliver Antman Midfielder
23
Djeidi Gassama
Djeidi Gassama
Attacker59'
42
Tochi Chukwuani
Tochi Chukwuani Midfielder
28
Bojan Miovski
Bojan Miovski
Attacker76'
47
Mikey Moore
Mikey Moore Midfielder
9
Youssef Chermiti
Youssef Chermiti Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Reo Hatate
8th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Marcelo Saracchi → Kieran Tierney
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Daizen Maeda
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
82'
Event
Anthony Ralston → Alistair Johnston
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Kelechi Iheanacho → Hyun-jun Yang
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Liam Scales
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
79'
Event
Kieran Tierney
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
78'
78'
Event
Tuur Rommens
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Reo Hatate → Benjamin Nygren
5th Substitution
76'
76'
Event
Bojan Miovski → Tochi Chukwuani
6th Substitution
Event
Auston Trusty
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
67'
59'
Event
Thelo Aasgaard → Mohamed Diomandé
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Djeidi Gassama → Oliver Antman
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Dujon Sterling → James Tavernier
4th Substitution
Event
Daizen Maeda
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
57'
Event
Daizen Maeda
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
53'
Event
Sebastian Tounekti → Luke McCowan
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Alistair Johnston
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
39'
Event
Hyun-jun Yang
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
23'
19'
Event
Youssef Chermiti
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
9'
Event
Mikey Moore
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Bojan Miovski takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
90
Attempt Attempt
Dujon Sterling's left-footed shot is saved.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Reo Hatate receives a yellow card.
84
Update Update
Marcelo Saracchi replaces Kieran Tierney.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Daizen Maeda receives a yellow card.
81
Update Update
Kelechi Iheanacho comes on for Hyun-jun Yang.
81
Update Update
Anthony Ralston replaces Alistair Johnston.
80
Attempt Attempt
Nasser Djiga's header is saved.
76
Substitution Substitution
Bojan Miovski is substituted off for Tochi Phil Chukwuani.
76
Update Update
Reo Hatate comes on for Benjamin Nygren.
74
Update Update
Nasser Djiga's header is blocked.
73
Attempt Attempt
Youssef Chermiti takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
59
Update Update
Dujon Sterling comes on for James Tavernier.
59
Update Update
Djeidi Gassama is on, and Oliver Antman is off.
59
Update Update
Thelo Aasgaard comes on for Diomande Mohammed.
57
Attempt Attempt
Daizen Maeda takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
53
Attempt Attempt
Daizen Maeda takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
46
Update Update
Sebastian Tounekti comes on for Luke McCowan.
45
Attempt Attempt
Hyun-jun Yang takes a left-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Nasser Djiga takes a shot with his head but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Daizen Maeda takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
30
Attempt Attempt
Benjamin Nygren takes a left-footed shot but misses.
23
Attempt Attempt
Hyun-jun Yang scores with a right-footed shot.
22
Attempt Attempt
Benjamin Nygren attempts a header but misses the shot.
19
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Youssef Chermiti receives a yellow card.
17
Attempt Attempt
Daizen Maeda takes a right-footed shot but misses.
9
Attempt Attempt
Youssef Chermiti's right-footed shot is blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Mikey Moore takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
4
Attempt Attempt
Youssef Chermiti takes a right-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Arne Engels takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Celtic's 3-1 win over Rangers underscores their status as the stronger side, converting a level halftime into a decisive victory. With possession nearly even and no red cards, the game hinged on second-half execution where Celtic excelled. The significant 50.3% structural deviation amplified their pre-match edge, aligning perfectly with expectations. This result reinforces Celtic's consistency in big matches, setting a strong tone for future fixtures while Rangers reflect on missed opportunities.

Celtic vs Rangers preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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