Celtic vs Motherwell Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Celtic Park Sat, 14 Mar - 3:00 PM
Premiership
Celtic CEL
3 Winner 1
Motherwell MOT
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 3:00 PM
Hyun-jun Yang - 79', 38'
Tomas Cvancara - 72' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Elijah Just - 32'
|
Red Card Emmanuel Longelo 71'

CONTEXT

The match between Celtic and Motherwell has finished, with Celtic securing a 3-1 victory after being tied 1-1 at half-time. Going into the fixture, Celtic were the clear favorites. The pre-match market gave them a 56.9% win probability, alongside a 23.5% chance of a draw and just 19.7% for a Motherwell upset. The final outcome aligned perfectly with this pre-match market, though Celtic ultimately registered a significant deviation of 43.1% over the course of the match. Interestingly, Motherwell controlled the ball, finishing with 53% possession compared to Celtic's 47%. However, the game's dynamics were heavily altered by a disciplinary issue. Motherwell received a red card, creating a noticeable red card distortion that defined the second-half adjustments and allowed Celtic to pull away.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Celtic showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Beaton

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Stewart

1st Assistant

G. Soutar

4th Official

C. Spence

2nd Assistant

Celtic M. O'Neill
M. O'Neill
VS
Motherwell J. Askou
J. Askou
1.89
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Falkirk Rank: 65 W
Dundee United Rank: 62 W
Rangers Rank: 77 L
Motherwell Rank: 68 L
Livingston Rank: 53 W
Aberdeen Rank: 60 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee Rank: 58 L
Dundee United Rank: 61 W
St. Mirren Rank: 58 W
Aberdeen Rank: 60 W
Rangers Rank: 77 D
Livingston Rank: 53 W
53
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
53 - 11 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Celtic
56.88%
Draw
23.46%
Away Motherwell
19.66%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.68
67.02
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Celtic
Motherwell
Power Score
77.68
67.02
League Position
2
4
Global Rank
71
246

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Celtic — Opponent-weighted form score
Motherwell — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Celtic Motherwell

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Celtic

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Motherwell

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Celtic ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Motherwell
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.30
26.70
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.70
33.30
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Celtic +0.63 Efficiency Index
vs
Motherwell -0.63 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Celtic
Motherwell
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Celtic
vs
Motherwell
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Celtic Motherwell
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+1.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Celtic Motherwell
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Celtic
Motherwell
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Celtic CEL Home
18 matches
Motherwell MOT Away
Match Record
15
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
15
Goals
46
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
46
+33
Goal Difference
-33

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:03:26+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
V. Sinisalo
Finland
12 V. Sinisalo
C. Donovan
Substitution
51 C. Donovan
B. Arthur
England
43 B. Arthur
L. Scales
Republic of Ireland
5 (C) L. Scales
K. Tierney
Substitution
Scotland
63 K. Tierney
A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
Substitution
England
21 A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
R. Hatate
Japan
41 R. Hatate
H. Yang
South Korea
13 H. Yang
B. Nygren
Substitution
Sweden
8 B. Nygren
S. Tounekti
Substitution
Tunisia
23 S. Tounekti
D. Maeda
Japan
38 D. Maeda
Pitch
C. Ward
England
13 C. Ward
M. Emmanuel
England
45 M. Emmanuel
P. McGinn
Scotland
16 (C) P. McGinn
S. O'Donnell
Scotland
2 S. O'Donnell
T. Sparrow
Substitution
Wales
7 T. Sparrow
L. Fadinger
Substitution
Austria
12 L. Fadinger
C. Slattery
England
8 C. Slattery
E. Watt
Scotland
20 E. Watt
E. Just
Substitution
New Zealand
21 E. Just
T. Maswanhise
Substitution
Zimbabwe
18 T. Maswanhise
I. Sa’id
Substitution
Nigeria
90 I. Sa’id

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 14, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Stadium :
Celtic Park
Capacity :
60411
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Graeme Stewart
John Beaton
Greg Soutar
Calum Spence

Statistics

Possession
CEL
47%
MOT
53%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 0
3 Shots 3
53 Dangerous attacks 43
47 Possession 53
2 Corners 3
9 Free kicks 10
4 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

2 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Injuries 2
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
0 Assists 1
14 Throwins 17
7 Successful Headers 5
10 Goal Kicks 9
83 Ball Safe 98
8 Dribble Attempts 21
2 Successful Dribbles 9
5 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

94 Attacks 97
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

482 Passes 562
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52
87 Successful Passes Percentage 88
47 Long Passes 56
8 Key Passes 8
418 Successful Passes 496
25 Successful Long Passes 29

Defensive

10 Interceptions 8
17 Tackles 15
3 Saves 3

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 3
17 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

0 Offsides 3
10 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : John Beaton

Starting XI ▼

12
Viljami Sinisalo
Viljami Sinisalo Goalkeeper
6.75
5
Liam Scales
Liam Scales (C) Defender
6.9
43
Benjamin Arthur
Benjamin Arthur Defender
6.93
51
Colby Donovan
Colby Donovan Defender
6.79
56
Anthony Ralston
Anthony Ralston
Defender78'
6.58
63
Kieran Tierney
Kieran Tierney Defender
7.46
36
Marcelo Saracchi
Marcelo Saracchi
Defender78'
6.51
8
Benjamin Nygren
Benjamin Nygren Midfielder
6.72
14
Luke McCowan
Luke McCowan
Midfielder62'
6.54
13
Hyun-jun Yang
Hyun-jun Yang Midfielder
2
8.62
21
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain Midfielder
6.76
28
Paulo Bernardo
Paulo Bernardo
Midfielder78'
6.58
23
Sebastian Tounekti
Sebastian Tounekti Midfielder
6.29
11
Tomas Cvancara
Tomas Cvancara
Attacker46'
6.9
41
Reo Hatate
Reo Hatate Midfielder
6.15
38
Daizen Maeda
Daizen Maeda Attacker
6.65
Referee : John Beaton

Starting XI ▼

13
Calum Ward
Calum Ward Goalkeeper
6.59
2
Stephen O'Donnell
Stephen O'Donnell Defender
6.59
7
Tom Sparrow
Tom Sparrow Defender
5.5
6
Jordan McGhee
Jordan McGhee
Defender83'
6.42
16
Paul McGinn
Paul McGinn (C) Defender
6.8
45
Emmanuel Longelo
Emmanuel Longelo Defender
5.7
8
Callum Slattery
Callum Slattery Midfielder
7.48
12
Lukas Fadinger
Lukas Fadinger Midfielder
6.54
25
Oscar Priestman
Oscar Priestman
Midfielder78'
6.74
20
Elliot Watt
Elliot Watt Midfielder
6.95
18
Tawanda Maswanhise
Tawanda Maswanhise Attacker
6.28
28
Luca Ross
Luca Ross
Attacker90+1'
21
Elijah Just
Elijah Just Attacker
7.49
19
Sam Nicholson
Sam Nicholson
Attacker83'
6.61
90
Ibrahim Said
Ibrahim Said Attacker
6.8
15
Eythor Bjørgolfsson
Eythor Bjørgolfsson
Attacker78'
6.56

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Luca Ross → Tawanda Maswanhise
10th Substitution
83'
Event
Sam Nicholson → Elijah Just
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Jordan McGhee → Tom Sparrow
8th Substitution
Event
Anthony Ralston
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
82'
Event
Hyun-jun Yang
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
79'
Event
Marcelo Saracchi → Kieran Tierney
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Anthony Ralston → Colby Donovan
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Paulo Bernardo → Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
3rd Substitution
78'
78'
Event
Eythor Bjørgolfsson → Ibrahim Said
4th Substitution
78'
Event
Oscar Priestman → Lukas Fadinger
5th Substitution
Event
Tomas Cvancara
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
72'
72'
Event
Calum Ward
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
71'
Event
Emmanuel Longelo
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
Event
Daizen Maeda
Penalty awarded
69'
64'
Event
Elijah Just
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Reo Hatate
3rd Yellowcard
63'
Event
Luke McCowan → Benjamin Nygren
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Colby Donovan
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
50'
Event
Tomas Cvancara → Sebastian Tounekti
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Hyun-jun Yang
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
38'
32'
Event
Elijah Just
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
7'

Match Commentary

90
Substitution Substitution
Luca Ross of Motherwell has been substituted in the 91st minute.
83
Substitution Substitution
Jordan McGhee is being substituted for Motherwell in the 83rd minute.
83
Substitution Substitution
Sam Nicholson from Motherwell is being substituted in the 83rd minute.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Anthony Ralston from Celtic received a yellow card in the 82nd minute.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Yang Hyun-Jun scores for Celtic in the 79th minute!
78
Update Update
Yang Hyun-Jun scores for Celtic in the 79th minute!
78
Substitution Substitution
Marcelo Saracchi is being substituted for Celtic in the 78th minute.
78
Substitution Substitution
Anthony Ralston from Celtic is being substituted in the 78th minute.
78
Substitution Substitution
Paulo Bernardo has been substituted for Celtic in the 78th minute.
78
Substitution Substitution
Oscar Priestman of Motherwell is being substituted in the 78th minute.
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Calum Ward from Motherwell received a yellow card in the 72nd minute.
72
Update Update
Tomas Cvancara successfully converted a penalty for Celtic in the 72nd minute.
71
Red Card Red Card Important
Emmanuel Longelo of Motherwell received a red card in the 71st minute.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Elijah Just from Motherwell received a yellow card in the 64th minute.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Reo Hatate of Celtic received a yellow card in the 63rd minute.
62
Substitution Substitution
Luke McCowan has been substituted for Celtic in the 62nd minute.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Colby Donovan of Celtic received a yellow card in the 50th minute.
45
Substitution Substitution
Tomas Cvancara has been substituted for Celtic at the 45-minute mark.
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Yang Hyun-Jun scores for Celtic in the 38th minute.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Elijah Just scores for Motherwell in the 32nd minute.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Celtic exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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