Celtic vs Hearts Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Celtic Park Sat, 16 May - 11:30 AM
Premiership
Celtic CEL
3 Winner 1
Hearts Hearts
Full Time Sat, 16 May 11:30 AM
Round 38 2nd Phase
Callum Osmand - 90+8'
Daizen Maeda - 87'
Arne Engels - 45+4' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Lawrence Shankland - 43'

CONTEXT

Celtic defeated Hearts by a final score of 3-1 after an even halftime score of 1-1. The home side held 67 percent possession against the visitors 33 percent and generated expected goals of 2.57 compared to 0.77. This produced an xG differential of 1.8 that favored Celtic throughout the contest. The stronger team prevailed in line with pre-match indicators and the outcome remained consistent with underlying metrics. A significant deviation of 41 percent was recorded for Celtic while efficiency stayed in line with established patterns. No red cards were shown to either side so the match structure experienced no external alterations. The second half adjustments allowed Celtic to move ahead decisively after the interval.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Celtic recorded a significant structural deviation of 41 percent during the match.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with overall performance metrics for both teams.
  • xG alignment: The xG alignment confirmed the result matched the 2.57 to 0.77 expected goals split.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true as the final score followed pre-match projections.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were fulfilled with a 1.8 differential favoring the home side.
  • Event impact: Second half events produced the decisive impact that created the 3-1 scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued so the match experienced zero red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Robertson

Scotland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Spence

1st Assistant

Scotland

D. Roome

2nd Assistant

Scotland

D. Dickinson

4th Official

Scotland

League averages

Premiership Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 23.52
Yellow cards / match 4.11
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.29
Celtic M. O'Neill
M. O'Neill
VS
Hearts D. McInnes
D. McInnes
2.15
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
Rangers Rank: 77 W
Hibernian Rank: 68 W
Falkirk Rank: 65 W
St. Mirren Rank: 57 W
Dundee Rank: 59 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Falkirk Rank: 65 W
Motherwell Rank: 67 D
Rangers Rank: 77 W
Hibernian Rank: 68 W
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
Livingston Rank: 53 D
49
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
49 - 8 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Celtic
59.01%
Draw
22.81%
Away Hearts
18.18%

Movement

Changes since opening
Celtic
-31.93%
Draw
+14.13%
Hearts
+17.8%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
79.79
74.02
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Celtic
Hearts
Power Score
79.79
74.02
League Position
3
2
Global Rank
57
131

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Celtic — Opponent-weighted form score
Hearts — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Celtic Hearts

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Celtic

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hearts

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Celtic ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hearts
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.00
42.12
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
42.12
25.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Celtic -1.68 Efficiency Index
vs
Hearts +1.68 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Celtic
Hearts
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Celtic
vs
Hearts
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Celtic Hearts
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Celtic Hearts
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Celtic
Hearts
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Celtic
vs
Hearts
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Celtic Hearts
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Celtic 0.25
Hearts 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Celtic Hearts
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Celtic 0.03
Hearts 0.05
Celtic
Hearts
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CEL had peak pressure around 87'.
  • CEL started the game with stronger pressure.
CEL Pressure Hearts Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CEL reached the top pressure at 87' (84.40).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 70 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Celtic CEL Home
70 matches
Hearts Hearts Away
Match Record
49
Wins
13
8
Draws
8
13
Losses
49
Goals
156
Goals Scored
63
63
Goals Conceded
156
+93
Goal Difference
-93

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:55:04+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
V. Sinisalo
Finland
12 V. Sinisalo
A. Johnston
Canada
2 A. Johnston
A. Trusty
Substitution
United States
6 A. Trusty
L. Scales
Republic of Ireland
5 L. Scales
K. Tierney
Substitution
Scotland
63 K. Tierney
C. McGregor
Scotland
42 (C) C. McGregor
A. Engels
Belgium
27 A. Engels
H. Yang
Substitution
South Korea
13 H. Yang
B. Nygren
Substitution
Sweden
8 B. Nygren
S. Tounekti
Substitution
Tunisia
23 S. Tounekti
D. Maeda
Japan
38 D. Maeda
Pitch
A. Schwolow
Germany
25 A. Schwolow
H. Milne
Substitution
Scotland
18 H. Milne
S. Findlay
Scotland
19 S. Findlay
M. Steinwender
Austria
15 M. Steinwender
S. Kingsley
Scotland
3 S. Kingsley
J. Altena
Substitution
Netherlands
23 J. Altena
B. Baningime
Substitution
DR Congo
6 B. Baningime
C. Devlin
Australia
14 C. Devlin
A. Kiziridis
Substitution
Greece
89 A. Kiziridis
P. Kabore
Substitution
Burkina Faso
11 P. Kabore
L. Shankland
Scotland
9 (C) L. Shankland

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 38 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Celtic Park
Capacity :
60411
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Don Robertson
Calum Spence
D. Roome
David Dickinson

Statistics

Possession
CEL
61%
Hearts
39%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 2
10 Shots 7
55 Dangerous attacks 38
67 Possession 33
9 Corners 6
10 Free kicks 12
6 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
9 Goal Kicks 9
19 Dribble Attempts 9
8 Successful Dribbles 6
56 Ball Safe 53
10 Goal Attempts 8
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
22 Throwins 22
2 Assists 1
1 Penalties 0
1 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Injuries 3

Attacking

99 Attacks 85
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

17 Successful Long Passes 19
465 Passes 235
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 27
12 Key Passes 9
379 Successful Passes 134
51 Long Passes 71
82 Successful Passes Percentage 57

Defensive

7 Tackles 16
8 Interceptions 8
57 Duels Won 54
1 Saves 2

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 3
20 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
10 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Don Robertson

Starting XI ▼

12
Viljami Sinisalo
Viljami Sinisalo Goalkeeper
6.69
2
Alistair Johnston
Alistair Johnston Defender
6.72
5
Liam Scales
Liam Scales Defender
7.53
6
Auston Trusty
Auston Trusty Defender
7.04
19
Callum Osmand
Callum Osmand
Attacker73'
8
63
Kieran Tierney
Kieran Tierney Defender
6.35
36
Marcelo Saracchi
Marcelo Saracchi
Defender73'
6.57
8
Benjamin Nygren
Benjamin Nygren Midfielder
6.66
47
Dane Murray
Dane Murray
Defender90'
6.6
13
Hyun-jun Yang
Hyun-jun Yang Midfielder
6.6
49
James Forrest
James Forrest
Midfielder62'
6.43
23
Sebastian Tounekti
Sebastian Tounekti Midfielder
6.57
17
Kelechi Iheanacho
Kelechi Iheanacho
Attacker46'
6.91
27
Arne Engels
Arne Engels Midfielder
7.16
42
Callum McGregor
Callum McGregor (C) Midfielder
6.68
38
Daizen Maeda
Daizen Maeda Attacker
7.54
Referee : Don Robertson

Starting XI ▼

25
Alexander Schwolow
Alexander Schwolow Goalkeeper
5.98
3
Stephen Kingsley
Stephen Kingsley Defender
7.15
15
Michael Steinwender
Michael Steinwender Defender
6.67
18
Harry Milne
Harry Milne Defender
6.66
99
Islam Chesnokov
Islam Chesnokov
Midfielder68'
6.62
19
Stuart Findlay
Stuart Findlay Defender
6.15
6
Beni Baningime
Beni Baningime Midfielder
6.46
16
Blair Spittal
Blair Spittal
Midfielder51'
6.3
14
Cammy Devlin
Cammy Devlin Midfielder
6.27
23
Jordi Altena
Jordi Altena Midfielder
6.4
2
Frankie Kent
Frankie Kent
Defender47'
6.47
89
Alexandros Kyziridis
Alexandros Kyziridis Midfielder
6.29
17
Alan Forrest
Alan Forrest
Attacker67'
6.62
9
Lawrence Shankland
Lawrence Shankland (C) Attacker
7.53
11
Pierre Landry Kabore
Pierre Landry Kabore Attacker
6.86
10
Cláudio Braga
Cláudio Braga
Attacker68'
6.35

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Callum Osmand
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+8'
Event
Callum McGregor
Foul / 9th Yellowcard
90+7'
Event
Daizen Maeda
Time wasting / 8th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Marcelo Saracchi
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90+4'
90+4'
Event
Lawrence Shankland
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Dane Murray → Benjamin Nygren
10th Substitution
90'
Event
Callum Osmand
Goal awarded
88'
Event
Daizen Maeda
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
87'
77'
Event
Cammy Devlin
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Marcelo Saracchi → Kieran Tierney
9th Substitution
73'
Event
Callum Osmand → Auston Trusty
8th Substitution
73'
68'
Event
Islam Chesnokov → Harry Milne
7th Substitution
68'
Event
Cláudio Braga → Pierre Landry Kabore
6th Substitution
67'
Event
Alan Forrest → Alexandros Kyziridis
5th Substitution
Event
James Forrest → Hyun-jun Yang
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Auston Trusty
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
58'
Event
Benjamin Nygren
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
53'
51'
Event
Blair Spittal → Beni Baningime
3rd Substitution
47'
Event
Frankie Kent → Jordi Altena
2nd Substitution
Event
Kelechi Iheanacho → Sebastian Tounekti
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Arne Engels
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
45+4'
43'
Event
Lawrence Shankland
Header / 1st Goal
38'
Event
Michael Steinwender
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Alistair Johnston
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
35'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Michael Steinwender attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Update Update
Dane Murray replaces Benjamin Nygren.
90
Attempt Attempt
Callum Osmand scores with a right-footed shot.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Daizen Maeda receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Devlin takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
88
Update Update
VAR decision confirms a goal for Callum Osmand.
87
Attempt Attempt
Daizen Maeda takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
86
Attempt Attempt
Stephen Kingsley attempts a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Attempt Attempt
Claudio Braga takes a left-footed shot but misses.
82
Attempt Attempt
Daizen Maeda takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
80
Attempt Attempt
Benjamin Nygren takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
79
Attempt Attempt
Kelechi Iheanacho takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
79
Attempt Attempt
Alan Forrest takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
78
Attempt Attempt
Arne Engels takes a right-footed shot but misses.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Stuart Findlay receives a yellow card.
76
Attempt Attempt
Benjamin Nygren takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
73
Update Update
Marcelo Saracchi replaces Kieran Tierney.
73
Update Update
Callum Osmand comes on for Auston Trusty.
70
Attempt Attempt
James Forrest takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
68
Update Update
Claudio Braga replaces Pierre Kabore.
68
Update Update
Islam Chesnokov replaces Harry Milne.
67
Substitution Substitution
Alan Forrest is substituted for Alexandros Kyziridis.
66
Attempt Attempt
Daizen Maeda attempts a header but misses the shot.
62
Update Update
James Forrest comes on for Hyun-jun Yang.
57
Attempt Attempt
Benjamin Nygren attempted a header, but it missed the target.
56
Attempt Attempt
Alistair Johnston's right-footed shot is blocked.
54
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Alexandros Kyziridis with his right foot goes wide.
51
Update Update
Blair Spittal replaces Beni Baningime.
47
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Frankie Kent comes on for Jordi Altena.
46
Update Update
Kelechi Iheanacho comes on for Sebastian Tounekti.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Arne Engels scores, making it 1-1.
45
Attempt Attempt
Arne Engels scores with a right-footed shot.
43
Update Update
Lawrence Shankland scores with a header.
38
Attempt Attempt
Pierre Kabore's left-footed shot is blocked.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Michael Steinwender receives a yellow card.
37
Attempt Attempt
Jordi Altena takes a right-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Sebastian Tounekti takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
22
Update Update
Lawrence Shankland takes a header, but it misses the target.
22
Attempt Attempt
Pierre Kabore takes a left-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Pierre Kabore takes a left-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Auston Trusty took a header shot but missed.

CONCLUSION

The 3-1 result reflected Celtic control after the 1-1 interval with possession and chance creation heavily weighted toward the home team. Expected goals accurately anticipated the margin and the absence of dismissals preserved normal tactical flow for both sides. Celtic converted their dominance into three goals while Hearts remained limited to a single strike despite equal footing at the break. The significant deviation observed for the winners aligned with their stronger overall profile and the efficiency metrics stayed consistent across the ninety minutes. This performance underlined Celtic ability to adjust in the second half and secure the points without structural interruptions from cards or other disruptions.

Celtic vs Hearts preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.