Celtic vs Falkirk Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland

Celtic Park Sat, 25 Apr - 4:30 PM

Premiership

Celtic CEL

Falkirk Falkirk

Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 4:30 PM

Round 34 2nd Phase

Daizen Maeda - 83', 30'

Kieran Tierney - 44'

Kyrell Wilson - 70'

CONTEXT

Celtic delivered a solid 3-1 home win against Falkirk, asserting dominance from the outset. They surged to a 2-0 halftime lead, capitalizing on their attacking prowess while Falkirk struggled to respond effectively. In the second half, Falkirk pulled one back, but Celtic swiftly restored their two-goal cushion to secure the points. With 55% possession, the hosts dictated play, aligning with their billing as the stronger team. The scoreline reflected a significant structural deviation of 25.6%, underscoring Celtic's overperformance relative to projections. Efficiencies stayed in line throughout, and no red cards marred the contest, preserving a competitive flow. This victory highlights Celtic's control and clinical finishing against lower-tier opposition.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Match structure showed a significant deviation of 25.6% favoring Celtic.
Efficiency shift: Efficiencies shifted in line with pre-match assessments.
xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without supporting data.
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or events notably impacted proceedings.
Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating any disciplinary distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

R. Lee

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Potter

2nd Assistant

J. Bell

1st Assistant

G. Calder

4th Official

M. O'Neill

J. McGlynn

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.48

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

15 - 2 - 1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Celtic

74.36%

Draw

16.08%

Falkirk

9.56%

Movement

Changes since opening

Celtic

-23.5%

Draw

+14.16%

Falkirk

+9.34%

Team Power Ranking

37.88

22.59

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Celtic

Falkirk

Power Score

37.88

22.59

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Celtic — Opponent-weighted form score

Falkirk — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Celtic Falkirk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Celtic

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Falkirk

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Celtic ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Falkirk

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

30.27

29.22

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

29.22

30.27

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Celtic +0.10 Efficiency Index

Falkirk -0.10 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Celtic

Falkirk

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Celtic ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Falkirk

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Celtic Falkirk

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Celtic Falkirk

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Celtic

Falkirk

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Celtic

Falkirk

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Celtic Falkirk

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Celtic Falkirk

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Celtic

Falkirk

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

CEL had peak pressure around 21'.
CEL started the game with stronger pressure.

CEL Pressure Falkirk Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: CEL reached the top pressure at 21' (92.63).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Celtic CEL Home

18 matches

Falkirk Falkirk Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+34

Goal Difference

-34

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:07:19+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

12 V. Sinisalo

56 A. Ralston

6 A. Trusty

5 L. Scales

63 K. Tierney

42 C. McGregor

27 A. Engels

49 J. Forrest

8 B. Nygren

13 H. Yang

38 D. Maeda

1 N. Hogarth

3 L. McCann

20 C. Allan

15 L. Neilson

2 K. Adams

8 B. Spencer

21 D. Tait

29 C. Miller

14 F. Yeats

11 B. Broggio

16 B. Stewart

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 25, 2026, 04:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 34 · 2nd Phase

Stadium :

Celtic Park

Capacity :

60411

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Dougie Potter

Ryan Lee

Jonathan Bell

George Calder

Statistics

Possession

CEL

53%

Falkirk

47%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1

2 Big Chances Created 2

6 Shots 7

53 Dangerous attacks 43

55 Possession 45

9 Corners 7

10 Free kicks 16

2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

15 Throwins 24

15 Dribble Attempts 20

67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

10 Successful Dribbles 10

73 Ball Safe 76

9 Goal Attempts 8

8 Goal Kicks 5

2 Assists 1

5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

95 Attacks 86

0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

34 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44

7 Key Passes 8

78 Successful Passes Percentage 76

350 Successful Passes 276

67 Long Passes 70

446 Passes 364

23 Successful Long Passes 31

Defensive

19 Tackles 7

2 Saves 4

61 Duels Won 48

6 Interceptions 8

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 24

5 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

3 Offsides 3

16 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Ryan Lee

Manager ▼

M. O'Neill Coach

Starting XI ▼

Viljami Sinisalo Goalkeeper

6.74

Liam Scales Defender

7.1

Auston Trusty Defender

6.98

Anthony Ralston Defender

6.9

Alistair Johnston

Defender72'

7.72

Kieran Tierney Defender

7.26

Marcelo Saracchi

Defender72'

6.97

Benjamin Nygren Midfielder

7.41

Hyun-jun Yang Midfielder

Kelechi Iheanacho

Attacker72'

6.82

Arne Engels Midfielder

6.91

Callum McGregor Midfielder

7.12

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain

Midfielder78'

6.89

James Forrest Midfielder

6.76

Sebastian Tounekti

Attacker62'

6.89

Daizen Maeda Attacker

6.8

Substitutes ▼

Sebastian Tounekti

Attacker62'

6.89

Kelechi Iheanacho

Attacker72'

6.82

Alistair Johnston

Defender72'

7.72

Marcelo Saracchi

Defender72'

6.97

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain

Midfielder78'

6.89

Bench ▼

Ross Doohan Goalkeeper

Dane Murray Defender

6.9

Luke McCowan Midfielder

6.78

Reo Hatate Midfielder

6.88

Referee : Ryan Lee