Celta de Vigo vs Elche Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio de Balaídos Sun, 3 May - 12:00 PM
La Liga
Celta de Vigo CEL
3 Winner 1
Elche ELC
Full Time Sun, 3 May 12:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Borja Iglesias - 85'
Iago Aspas - 30'
Hugo Álvarez - 14'
Goal
|
Goal
André Silva - 82' (P)

CONTEXT

Celta de Vigo defeated Elche 3-1 in a match where possession told only part of the story. Despite controlling just 33% of the ball compared to Elche's dominant 67%, Celta Vigo struck twice before halftime to lead 2-0, showcasing superior finishing efficiency. Elche responded with a goal in the second half but could not overcome the deficit, as Celta added a third to seal the victory. No red cards were issued, allowing uninterrupted play throughout. Identified as the stronger team pre-match, Celta's win reflected minimal structural deviation from expectations, with the outcome consistent across key metrics. Elche's possession advantage failed to translate into goals, highlighting Celta's defensive resilience and counter-attacking prowess. This result underscores Celta Vigo's ability to outperform on limited possession, maintaining control through key moments.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result exhibited minimal 2.1% deviation favoring Celta de Vigo.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No major events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to proceedings.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. De Burgos Bengoetxea

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. De Francisco Grijalba

1st Assistant

A. Pérez de Mendiola González de Durana

2nd Assistant

M. García Gómez

4th Official

Celta de Vigo C. Giráldez González
C. Giráldez González
VS
Elche E. Sarabia Armesto
E. Sarabia Armesto
1.41
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.09
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Villarreal Rank: 82 L
FC Barcelona Rank: 95 L
Real Oviedo Rank: 70 L
Valencia Rank: 77 W
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 76 L
Real Betis Rank: 82 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Oviedo Rank: 71 W
Atlético Madrid Rank: 89 W
Valencia Rank: 77 W
Rayo Vallecano Rank: 78 L
Mallorca Rank: 76 W
Real Madrid Rank: 93 L
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 6 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Celta de Vigo
97.89%
Draw
1.92%
Away Elche
0.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
79.69
62.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Celta de Vigo
Elche
Power Score
79.69
62.33
League Position
6
14
Global Rank
62
125

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Celta de Vigo — Opponent-weighted form score
Elche — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Celta de Vigo Elche

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Celta de Vigo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Elche

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Celta de Vigo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Elche
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.97
26.79
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.79
21.97
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Celta de Vigo -0.44 Efficiency Index
vs
Elche +0.44 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Celta de Vigo
Elche
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Celta de Vigo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Elche
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Celta de Vigo Elche
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Celta de Vigo Elche
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Celta de Vigo
Elche
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Celta de Vigo
vs
Elche
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Celta de Vigo Elche
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Celta de Vigo 0.24
Elche 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Celta de Vigo Elche
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Celta de Vigo 0.02
Elche 0.12
Celta de Vigo
Elche
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ELC had peak pressure around 39'.
  • ELC started the game with stronger pressure.
CEL Pressure ELC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ELC reached the top pressure at 39' (88.36).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Celta de Vigo CEL Home
21 matches
Elche ELC Away
Match Record
8
Wins
7
6
Draws
6
7
Losses
8
Goals
25
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
25
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:02:32+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
I. Radu
Romania
13 I. Radu
J. Rodríguez Galiano
Spain
32 J. Rodríguez Galiano
Y. Lago Amil
Spain
29 Y. Lago Amil
Á. Núñez Cobo
Substitution
Spain
14 Á. Núñez Cobo
J. Rueda García
Substitution
Spain
17 J. Rueda García
F. López González
Spain
8 F. López González
Ilaix Moriba
Guinea
6 Ilaix Moriba
S. Carreira Vilariño
Spain
5 S. Carreira Vilariño
I. Aspas Juncal
Substitution
Spain
10 I. Aspas Juncal
H. Álvarez Antúnez
Substitution
Spain
23 H. Álvarez Antúnez
F. Jutlgà Blanc
Substitution
Spain
9 F. Jutlgà Blanc
Pitch
M. Dituro
Argentina
1 M. Dituro
P. Bigas Rigo
Spain
6 P. Bigas Rigo
D. Affengruber
Substitution
Austria
22 D. Affengruber
J. Donald
Spain
18 J. Donald
A. Giner Pedrosa
Substitution
Spain
3 A. Giner Pedrosa
A. Febas Pérez
Spain
14 A. Febas Pérez
M. Aguado Pallares
Substitution
Spain
8 M. Aguado Pallares
J. Morente Oliva
Substitution
Spain
15 J. Morente Oliva
G. Villar del Fraile
Substitution
Spain
12 G. Villar del Fraile
A. Valente Silva
Portugal
9 A. Valente Silva
?. Rodríguez Muñoz
Uruguay
20 ?. Rodríguez Muñoz

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio de Balaídos
Capacity :
25000
Attendance :
15401
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
Iker De Francisco Grijalba
Asier Pérez de Mendiola González de Durana
Manuel García Gómez

Statistics

Possession
CEL
38%
ELC
62%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
1 Shots 8
25 Dangerous attacks 59
33 Possession 67
4 Corners 2
15 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
0 Penalties 1
77 Ball Safe 74
4 Goal Attempts 12
12 Dribble Attempts 19
11 Goal Kicks 4
7 Successful Headers 15
15 Throwins 22
5 Successful Dribbles 7
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 37
3 Assists 0

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 1
61 Attacks 135

Possession

233 Successful Passes 535
306 Passes 595
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 54
28 Successful Long Passes 21
76 Successful Passes Percentage 90
71 Long Passes 39
6 Key Passes 10

Defensive

48 Duels Won 48
3 Saves 1
9 Interceptions 5
22 Tackles 13

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 10
6 Total Crosses 19

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
14 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Starting XI ▼

13
Ionuț Radu
Ionuț Radu Goalkeeper
6.87
14
Álvaro Núñez
Álvaro Núñez Defender
7
3
Óscar Mingueza
Óscar Mingueza
Defender78'
6.91
29
Yoel Lago
Yoel Lago Defender
6.55
32
Javi Rodríguez
Javi Rodríguez Defender
6.69
5
Sergio Carreira
Sergio Carreira Midfielder
6.79
6
Ilaix Moriba
Ilaix Moriba Midfielder
6.79
8
Fer López
Fer López Midfielder
6.75
17
Javi Rueda
Javi Rueda Midfielder
6.77
12
Manu Fernández
Manu Fernández
Defender46'
6.55
9
Ferran Jutglà
Ferran Jutglà Attacker
6.9
7
Borja Iglesias
Borja Iglesias
Attacker71'
6.91
10
Iago Aspas
Iago Aspas Attacker
7
39
Jones El-Abdellaoui
Jones El-Abdellaoui
Attacker63'
6.58
23
Hugo Álvarez
Hugo Álvarez Attacker
6.74
19
Williot Swedberg
Williot Swedberg
Midfielder71'
6.72
Referee : Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Starting XI ▼

1
Matías Dituro
Matías Dituro Goalkeeper
7.15
6
Pedro Bigas
Pedro Bigas Defender
6.85
18
John Donald
John Donald Defender
6.46
22
David Affengruber
David Affengruber Defender
6.91
23
Víctor Chust
Víctor Chust
Defender58'
6.74
3
Adrià Pedrosa
Adrià Pedrosa Midfielder
6.8
17
Josan
Josan
Midfielder69'
6.83
8
Marc Aguado
Marc Aguado Midfielder
6.81
24
Lucas Cepeda
Lucas Cepeda
Attacker77'
6.84
14
Aleix Febas
Aleix Febas Midfielder
7.08
15
Tete Morente
Tete Morente Midfielder
6.76
39
Héctor Fort
Héctor Fort
Defender69'
6.68
9
André Silva
André Silva Attacker
6.88
12
Gonzalo Villar
Gonzalo Villar Attacker
6.74
16
Martim Neto
Martim Neto
Midfielder58'
6.82
20
Álvaro Rodríguez
Álvaro Rodríguez Attacker
6.88

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Borja Iglesias
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
85'
Event
Yoel Lago
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
83'
82'
Event
André Silva
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Óscar Mingueza → Álvaro Núñez
10th Substitution
78'
77'
Event
Lucas Cepeda → Marc Aguado
9th Substitution
Event
Williot Swedberg → Hugo Álvarez
8th Substitution
71'
Event
Borja Iglesias → Ferran Jutglà
7th Substitution
71'
69'
Event
Héctor Fort → Tete Morente
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Josan → Adrià Pedrosa
6th Substitution
Event
Jones El-Abdellaoui → Iago Aspas
4th Substitution
63'
58'
Event
Víctor Chust → David Affengruber
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Martim Neto → Gonzalo Villar
3rd Substitution
Event
Manu Fernández → Javi Rueda
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Javi Rueda
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
41'
Event
Iago Aspas
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
30'
28'
Event
Gonzalo Villar
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Hugo Álvarez
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
14'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Jones El-Abdellaoui takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Hector Fort takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Cepeda takes a left-footed shot but misses.
85
Attempt Attempt
Borja Iglesias Quintas scores with a left-footed shot.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yoel Lago receives a yellow card.
82
Attempt Attempt
Andre Silva takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
82
Update Update
Goal in the penalty shootout! Andre Silva scores, making it 2-1.
78
Update Update
Oscar Mingueza replaces Alvaro Nunez.
77
Update Update
Lucas Cepeda is on, and Marc Aguado Pallares is off.
71
Update Update
Javier Rodriguez's header is blocked.
71
Update Update
Borja Iglesias Quintas comes on for Ferran Jutgla Blanch.
71
Update Update
Williot Swedberg comes on for Hugo Alvarez Antunez.
70
Substitution Substitution
Hector Fort is substituted for Tete Morente.
70
Update Update
Jose Antonio Fernandez Pomares is on, and Adria Giner Pedrosa is off.
70
Attempt Attempt
Ferran Jutgla Blanch takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
69
Attempt Attempt
Victor Chust takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
63
Update Update
Jones El-Abdellaoui comes on for Iago Aspas Juncal.
62
Attempt Attempt
Alvaro Daniel Rodriguez Munoz takes a left-footed shot but misses.
60
Attempt Attempt
Tete Morente takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
60
Attempt Attempt
Alvaro Daniel Rodriguez Munoz takes a left-footed shot but misses.
58
Update Update
Victor Chust replaces David Affengruber.
58
Update Update
Martim Neto comes on for Gonzalo Villar.
53
Update Update
Tete Morente's header attempt misses the target.
46
Update Update
Manu Fernández comes on for Javier Rueda.
45
Attempt Attempt
Andre Silva's header is saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Andre Silva's right-footed shot is blocked.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Javier Rueda receives a yellow card.
37
Attempt Attempt
John Nwankwo Donald takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
35
Attempt Attempt
Alvaro Daniel Rodriguez Munoz attempts a header but misses the shot.
32
Attempt Attempt
David Affengruber takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
28
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gonzalo Villar receives a yellow card.
14
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Alvarez Antunez takes a right-footed shot and scores.
5
Attempt Attempt
Marc Aguado Pallares takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
2
Attempt Attempt
Andre Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Celta de Vigo's 3-1 triumph over Elche exemplifies triumph through efficiency rather than dominance. With only 33% possession, Celta capitalized on limited chances, leading 2-0 at halftime and extending the advantage post-interval. Elche's 67% ball control yielded just one goal, exposing conversion shortcomings. The minimal 2.1% structural deviation and market alignment affirm the result's predictability for the stronger side. Free of red cards or disruptions, the game highlighted Celta's tactical discipline and clinical edge, solidifying their standing while exposing Elche's vulnerabilities in final-third execution.

Celta de Vigo vs Elche preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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