Celje vs AEK Athens Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadion Z'dežele Thu, 12 Mar - 8:00 PM
Europa Conference League
Celje Celje
0 Winner 4
AEK Athens AEK
Full Time Thu, 12 Mar 8:00 PM
|
Goal
Harold Moukoudi - 49'
Mijat Gacinovic - 36'
Aboubakary Koita - 33'
Barnabás Varga - 3'

CONTEXT

The match between Celje and AEK Athens has concluded, with AEK Athens securing a 1-0 full-time victory. While Celje was theoretically designated as the stronger overall team, the result was fully aligned with the pre-match betting market. AEK Athens entered the contest as the clear favorite with a 54.6% implied win probability, while Celje stood at just 21.3% and a draw at 24.1%. Consequently, the away victory represented a significant deviation in favor of AEK Athens relative to baseline team strength, yet it matched the market forecasts perfectly. On the pitch, Celje dictated the overall tempo, controlling 59% of the possession compared to AEK Athens' 41%. Expected goals (xG) metrics were unavailable for this fixture, meaning it could not be statistically determined if the final score aligned with the underlying chance creation. The game flowed without major disciplinary interference, as zero red cards were issued to either side. Ultimately, the match's efficiency shift was completely in line with expectations. AEK Athens effectively absorbed the home side's heavy possession advantage, delivering a disciplined performance to validate their pre-match market backing and claim the narrow away win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: AEK Athens showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

L. Branco Godinho

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Costa Veríssimo

4th Official

R. Martins Teixeira

1st Assistant

P. de Sá Martins

2nd Assistant

Celje I. Maevski
I. Maevski
VS
AEK Athens M. Nikolić
M. Nikolić
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.17
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Drita Rank: 57 W
Drita Rank: 57 W
Shelbourne Rank: D
Rijeka Rank: 72 L
Sigma Olomouc Rank: 57 L
Legia Warszawa Rank: 62 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Universitatea Craiova Rank: 71 W
Samsunspor Rank: 70 W
Fiorentina Rank: 75 W
Shamrock Rovers Rank: D
Aberdeen Rank: 59 W
Celje Rank: 71 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Celje
21.28%
Draw
24.1%
Away AEK Athens
54.62%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.45
55.18
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Celje
AEK Athens
Power Score
68.45
55.18
League Position
13
3
Global Rank
209
71

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Celje — Opponent-weighted form score
AEK Athens — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Celje AEK Athens

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Celje

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AEK Athens

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Celje ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AEK Athens
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
17.29
54.15
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
54.15
17.29
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Celje -3.02 Efficiency Index
vs
AEK Athens +3.02 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Celje
AEK Athens
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Celje ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AEK Athens
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Celje AEK Athens
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Celje AEK Athens
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Celje
AEK Athens
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Celje Celje Home
1 matches
AEK Athens AEK Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
3
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-03-13T01:04:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
Ž. Leban
Slovenia
1 Ž. Leban
J. Nieto Zarzoso
Spain
2 J. Nieto Zarzoso
Ł. Bejger
Poland
44 Ł. Bejger
A. Tutyškinas
Substitution
Lithuania
6 A. Tutyškinas
Ž. Karničnik
Slovenia
23 (C) Ž. Karničnik
S. Sešlar
Substitution
Slovenia
10 S. Sešlar
D. Hrka
Substitution
Slovenia
4 D. Hrka
M. Kvesić
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
8 M. Kvesić
N. Iosifov
Russia
20 N. Iosifov
A. Kučys
Lithuania
47 A. Kučys
R. Vancaš Požeg
Substitution
Slovenia
94 R. Vancaš Požeg
Pitch
T. Strakosha
Albania
1 T. Strakosha
S. Pilios
Greece
3 S. Pilios
F. Bem Relvas Vito Oliveira
Portugal
44 F. Bem Relvas Vito Oliveira
H. Moukoudi
Cameroon
2 (C) H. Moukoudi
L. Rota
Greece
12 L. Rota
A. Koita
Substitution
Mauritania
11 A. Koita
O. Pineda Alvarado
Substitution
Mexico
13 O. Pineda Alvarado
R. Marin
Romania
18 R. Marin
M. Gaćinović
Substitution
Serbia
8 M. Gaćinović
L. Jović
Substitution
Serbia
9 L. Jović
B. Varga
Substitution
Hungary
25 B. Varga

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 12, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadium :
Stadion Z'dežele
Capacity :
16038
Attendance :
6020
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Fábio José Costa Veríssimo
Rui Miguel Martins Teixeira
Pedro Nuno de Sá Martins
Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Statistics

Possession
Celje
54%
AEK
46%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 4
0 Big Chances Created 9
8 Shots 20
44 Dangerous attacks 44
59 Possession 41
8 Corners 5
10 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

9 Successful Dribbles 15
0 Assists 2
17 Dribble Attempts 29
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 52
14 Throwins 12
7 Goal Kicks 6
1 Hit Woodwork 3
5 Substitutions 5
94 Ball Safe 80
1 Injuries 0
5 Goal Attempts 12

Attacking

94 Attacks 91
0 Big Chances Missed 7

Possession

87 Successful Passes Percentage 86
499 Passes 353
43 Long Passes 24
29 Successful Long Passes 12
433 Successful Passes 304
67 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50
7 Key Passes 14

Defensive

22 Tackles 16
6 Saves 1
4 Interceptions 12
50 Duels Won 58

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 9
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

14 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Starting XI ▼

1
Zan Luk Leban
Zan Luk Leban Goalkeeper
6.79
2
Juanjo Nieto
Juanjo Nieto Defender
6.47
6
Artemijus Tutyškinas
Artemijus Tutyškinas Defender
6
15
David Castro
David Castro
Defender46'
6.43
23
Zan Karnicnik
Zan Karnicnik (C) Defender
6.54
44
Lukasz Bejger
Lukasz Bejger Defender
6.93
4
Darko Hrka
Darko Hrka Midfielder
5.87
13
Papa Daniel
Papa Daniel
Midfielder46'
6.56
8
Mario Kvesic
Mario Kvesic Midfielder
6.71
17
Andrej Kotnik
Andrej Kotnik
Midfielder75'
6.52
10
Svit Seslar
Svit Seslar Midfielder
6.31
16
Ivica Vidovic
Ivica Vidovic
Midfielder85'
6.65
20
Nikita Iosifov
Nikita Iosifov Attacker
6.59
47
Armandas Kucys
Armandas Kucys Attacker
6.52
94
Rudi Pozeg Vancas
Rudi Pozeg Vancas Attacker
6.37
11
Milot Avdyli
Milot Avdyli
Midfielder57'
6.84
Referee : Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Starting XI ▼

1
Thomas Strakosha
Thomas Strakosha Goalkeeper
6.86
2
Harold Moukoudi
Harold Moukoudi (C) Defender
7.61
3
Stavros Pilios
Stavros Pilios Defender
6.75
12
Lazaros Rota
Lazaros Rota Defender
7.54
44
Filipe Relvas
Filipe Relvas Defender
6.97
8
Mijat Gacinovic
Mijat Gacinovic Midfielder
6.83
20
Petros Mantalos
Petros Mantalos
Midfielder78'
6.43
11
Aboubakary Koita
Aboubakary Koita Midfielder
7.96
7
Dereck Kutesa
Dereck Kutesa
Midfielder73'
6.64
13
Orbelín Pineda
Orbelín Pineda Midfielder
7.39
37
Roberto Pereyra
Roberto Pereyra
Midfielder74'
6.62
18
Răzvan Marin
Răzvan Marin Midfielder
7.85
9
Luka Jović
Luka Jović Attacker
6.92
90
Zini
Zini
Attacker78'
6.6
25
Barnabás Varga
Barnabás Varga Attacker
8.1
17
Dimitrios Kaloskamis
Dimitrios Kaloskamis
Midfielder86'

Events

2ND-HALF
86'
Event
Dimitrios Kaloskamis → Barnabás Varga
10th Substitution
Event
Ivica Vidovic → Svit Seslar
9th Substitution
85'
Event
David Castro
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
81'
78'
Event
Petros Mantalos → Mijat Gacinovic
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Zini → Luka Jović
8th Substitution
Event
Andrej Kotnik → Mario Kvesic
6th Substitution
75'
74'
Event
Roberto Pereyra → Orbelín Pineda
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Dereck Kutesa → Aboubakary Koita
4th Substitution
Event
Milot Avdyli → Rudi Pozeg Vancas
3rd Substitution
57'
57'
Event
Aboubakary Koita
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
49'
Event
Harold Moukoudi
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
David Castro → Artemijus Tutyškinas
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Papa Daniel → Darko Hrka
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Orbelín Pineda
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
36'
Event
Mijat Gacinovic
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
33'
Event
Aboubakary Koita
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Darko Hrka
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
30'
3'
Event
Barnabás Varga
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Celje, following a save by Thomas Strakosha.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
90
Attempt Attempt
The shot is blocked. Milot Avdyli from Celje takes a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but Thomas Strakosha of AEK Athens makes a save in the upper center of the goal. The attempt was set up by Juanjo Nieto.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded, with the final score showing Celje 0 and AEK Athens 4.
90
Update Update
Match interruption - Celje.
88
Update Update
Juanjo Nieto from Celje committed a foul.
88
Update Update
Dereck Kutesa from AEK Athens earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AEK Athens: Dimitris Kaloskamis comes on to take the place of Barnabás Varga.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Celje: Ivica Vidovic comes on to take the place of Svit Seslar.
85
Update Update
Armandas Kucys from Celje commits a foul.
85
Update Update
Filipe Relvas of AEK Athens earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
83
Update Update
Zan Karnicnik from Celje commits a foul.
83
Update Update
Roberto Pereyra from AEK Athens is awarded a free kick on the right flank.
83
Update Update
Stavros Pilios from AEK Athens commits a foul.
83
Update Update
Milot Avdyli from Celje is awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
David Castro from Celje receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
80
Update Update
Zine from AEK Athens earns a free kick in their own half of the field.
80
Update Update
David Castro from Celje commits a foul.
79
Update Update
Dereck Kutesa from AEK Athens commits a foul.
79
Update Update
Juanjo Nieto from Celje earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AEK Athens: Petros Mantalos comes on to take the place of Mijat Gacinovic.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AEK Athens: Zine comes on to take the place of Luka Jovic.
77
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal denied. Dereck Kutesa from AEK Athens takes a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but Zan-Luk Leban of Celje makes a save right in the middle of the goal.
77
Update Update
David Castro from Celje commits a foul.
77
Update Update
Luka Jovic from AEK Athens earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
76
Update Update
Luka Jovic of AEK Athens earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
76
Update Update
Lukasz Bejger from Celje commits a foul.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Celje: Andrej Kotnik comes on to take the place of Mario Kvesic.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AEK Athens: Roberto Pereyra comes on to take the place of Orbelín Pineda.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AEK Athens: Dereck Kutesa comes on to take the place of Aboubakary Koïta.
73
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Zan Karnicnik from Celje took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went over the bar and to the left. He was assisted by David Castro.
72
Update Update
Lukasz Bejger from Celje has been awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
65
Update Update
Mijat Gacinovic from AEK Athens commits a foul.
63
Update Update
Stavros Pilios from AEK Athens earns a free kick on the left flank.
63
Update Update
Milot Avdyli from Celje commits a foul.
62
Update Update
David Castro from Celje is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
62
Update Update
Mijat Gacinovic from AEK Athens commits a foul.
61
Update Update
David Castro from Celje is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
61
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Mijat Gacinovic of AEK Athens took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it sailed over the bar. He was set up by Aboubakary Koïta after a quick counterattack.
61
Update Update
Mijat Gacinovic from AEK Athens commits a foul.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Celje: Milot Avdyli comes on to take the place of Rudi Pozeg Vancas.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aboubakary Koïta from AEK Athens receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
57
Update Update
Aboubakary Koïta from AEK Athens commits a foul.
57
Update Update
Juanjo Nieto from Celje is awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
54
Update Update
Mijat Gacinovic from AEK Athens commits a foul.
54
Update Update
David Castro from Celje earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Celje after Lazaros Rota allowed the ball to go out of play.
51
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AEK Athens after a deflection off Papa Daniel.
51
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AEK Athens after a defensive play by Papa Daniel.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to AEK Athens after Lukasz Bejger allowed the ball to go out.
50
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt was thwarted. Luka Jovic from AEK Athens tried a left-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Barnabás Varga.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Celje 0, AEK Athens 4. Harold Moukoudi scores for AEK Athens with a right-footed shot from just a few yards out, finding the center of the net after a set piece play.
49
Update Update
Razvan Marin from AEK Athens strikes the crossbar with a right-footed attempt from outside the penalty area following a direct free kick.
48
Update Update
Juanjo Nieto from Celje committed a foul.
48
Update Update
Luka Jovic of AEK Athens earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
47
Update Update
Orbelín Pineda from AEK Athens is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
47
Update Update
Orbelín Pineda of AEK Athens is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
45
Update Update
Mario Kvesic from Celje is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
45
Update Update
The first half concludes with the scoreline reading Celje 0, AEK Athens 3.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Celje: David Castro comes on to take the place of Artemijus Tutyskinas.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Orbelín Pineda from AEK Athens receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
45
Update Update
Mario Kvesic from Celje earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
45
Attempt Attempt
A shot on goal has been thwarted. Luka Jovic of AEK Athens fired a left-footed attempt from the middle of the box, but Zan-Luk Leban from Celje made a save right in the center of the net, with the assist coming from Aboubakary Koïta.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the scoreline reading Celje 0, AEK Athens 3.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Celje: Papa Daniel comes on to take the place of Svit Seslar.
44
Update Update
Orbelín Pineda from AEK Athens is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
44
Update Update
Svit Seslar from Celje commits a foul.
43
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Celje after Filipe Relvas allowed the ball to go out.
39
Update Update
Lazaros Rota from AEK Athens commits a foul.
39
Update Update
Rudi Pozeg Vancas from Celje earns a free kick on the left side of the field.
38
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Stavros Pilios from AEK Athens took a left-footed shot from a challenging position on the left side, but it goes just wide of the top left corner.
38
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt is stopped. Luka Jovic from AEK Athens tries a left-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Razvan Marin.
36
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Celje 0, AEK Athens 3. Mijat Gacinovic from AEK Athens scores with a powerful right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, sending the ball into the top left corner of the net.
35
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Celje after Mijat Gacinovic allowed the ball to go out.
35
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Svit Seslar from Celje takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt was thwarted. Juanjo Nieto from Celje fired a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it was blocked. Darko Hrka provided the assist.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
A shot on goal has been denied. Barnabás Varga from AEK Athens took a right-footed attempt from the middle of the box, but Zan-Luk Leban from Celje made a crucial save right in the center of the goal. The effort was set up by Lazaros Rota.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Celje 0, AEK Athens 2. Aboubakary Koïta scores for AEK Athens with a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, placing the ball into the bottom right corner. The assist comes from Luka Jovic.
30
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Darko Hrka from Celje receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
30
Update Update
Darko Hrka from Celje commits a foul.
30
Update Update
Mijat Gacinovic from AEK Athens is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
29
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Celje after Razvan Marin allowed the ball to go out.
29
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Celje, following a foul by Orbelín Pineda.
28
Update Update
Juanjo Nieto from Celje has been awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
28
Update Update
Aboubakary Koïta from AEK Athens commits a foul.
27
Update Update
Mario Kvesic from Celje earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
27
Update Update
Barnabás Varga of AEK Athens commits a foul.
27
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Armandas Kucys from Celje took a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
26
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AEK Athens after a defensive play by Zan-Luk Leban.
25
Update Update
Darko Hrka from Celje commits a foul.
25
Update Update
Aboubakary Koïta from AEK Athens earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
23
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Celje after Stavros Pilios allowed the ball to go out.
22
Corner Corner
The shot was blocked. Razvan Marin from AEK Athens took a right-footed attempt from outside the penalty area, but Zan-Luk Leban from Celje made a save in the top left corner, with assistance from Aboubakary Koïta.
17
Attempt Attempt
The shot is deflected. Orbelín Pineda from AEK Athens takes a right-footed attempt from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Luka Jovic of AEK Athens tries a right-footed effort from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. He received assistance from Aboubakary Koïta.
16
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AEK Athens after a deflection off Darko Hrka.
15
Corner Corner
A shot on goal has been stopped. Aboubakary Koïta from AEK Athens took a right-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but Zan-Luk Leban from Celje made a great save, diving to the bottom left corner. The attempt was set up by Orbelín Pineda.
13
Attempt Attempt
Attempt denied. Svit Seslar from Celje takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Celje after Orbelín Pineda allowed the ball to go out.
11
Update Update
Barnabás Varga of AEK Athens strikes the right post with a right-footed attempt from the right side of the penalty area, following a through ball assist from Luka Jovic.
10
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Mijat Gacinovic from AEK Athens took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went just wide to the left. He was assisted by Barnabás Varga.
9
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Celje after Stavros Pilios allowed the ball to go out.
6
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Svit Seslar from Celje took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but couldn't find the target.
5
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
4
Update Update
The game has been temporarily halted due to an injury to Armandas Kucys from Celje.
3
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AEK Athens after Lukasz Bejger allowed the ball to go out of play.
3
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Celje 0, AEK Athens 1. Barnabás Varga scores for AEK Athens with a header from the middle of the penalty area, directing it into the bottom right corner. The assist comes from Razvan Marin, who delivered a cross after a corner kick.
3
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AEK Athens after Lukasz Bejger allowed the ball to go out.
2
Update Update
Juanjo Nieto commits a foul for Celje.
2
Update Update
Aboubakary Koïta from AEK Athens earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: AEK Athens exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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