Catanzaro vs Spezia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo Sat, 25 Apr - 10:30 AM
Serie B
Catanzaro CAT
4 Winner 2
Spezia SPE
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 10:30 AM
Round 36 Regular Season
Filippo Pittarello - 82', 78'
Fellipe Jack - 63'
Jacopo Petriccione - 24'
Goal
|
Goal
Gianluca Lapadula - 90+3' (P)
Mattia Valoti - 44'

CONTEXT

Catanzaro claimed a convincing 4-2 home win against Spezia in a match full of action. The teams were level at 1-1 at halftime, reflecting a competitive opening period. Catanzaro then asserted control with 64% possession compared to Spezia's 36%, converting opportunities into three second-half goals for the victory. Identified as the stronger team beforehand, Catanzaro produced a significant 57.8% structural deviation, far surpassing typical performance metrics. No red cards were issued, ensuring uninterrupted play and highlighting tactical discipline. Efficiency remained in line with assessments, while market alignment proved accurate. Spezia showed resilience with two goals but struggled against Catanzaro's dominance and finishing precision. This result boosts Catanzaro's standing through superior control and execution.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Catanzaro recorded a significant 57.8% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was confirmed as true.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable from data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments noted in the match.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards issued, causing no distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Piccinini

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. El Filali

2nd Assistant

G. Vingo

4th Official

M. Regattieri

1st Assistant

Catanzaro A. Aquilani
A. Aquilani
VS
Spezia L. D'Angelo
L. D'Angelo
1.85
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.11
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Juve Stabia Rank: D
Modena Rank: D
Avellino Rank: D
Monza Rank: D
Cesena Rank: L
Calcio Padova Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Südtirol Rank: W
Mantova Rank: L
Carrarese Rank: L
Juve Stabia Rank: L
Empoli Rank: D
Modena Rank: L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Catanzaro
42.16%
Draw
27.46%
Away Spezia
30.38%

Movement

Changes since opening
Catanzaro
-52.96%
Draw
+23.76%
Spezia
+29.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
26.18
17.07
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Catanzaro
Spezia
Power Score
26.18
17.07
League Position
5
20
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Catanzaro — Opponent-weighted form score
Spezia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Catanzaro Spezia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Catanzaro

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Spezia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Catanzaro ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Spezia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.39
40.83
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.83
25.39
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Catanzaro -1.48 Efficiency Index
vs
Spezia +1.48 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Catanzaro
Spezia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Catanzaro ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Spezia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Catanzaro Spezia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Catanzaro Spezia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Catanzaro
Spezia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Catanzaro
vs
Spezia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Catanzaro Spezia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Catanzaro 0.31
Spezia 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Catanzaro Spezia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Catanzaro 0.04
Spezia 0.09
Catanzaro
Spezia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CAT had peak pressure around 68'.
  • SPE started the game with stronger pressure.
CAT Pressure SPE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CAT reached the top pressure at 68' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Catanzaro CAT Home
7 matches
Spezia SPE Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
2
Goals
6
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
6
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:00:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
M. Pigliacelli
Italy
22 M. Pigliacelli
T. Cassandro
Italy
84 T. Cassandro
M. Antonini Lui
Brazil
4 M. Antonini Lui
F. Moreira Pacheco
Substitution
Brazil
6 F. Moreira Pacheco
C. Favasuli
Italy
27 C. Favasuli
S. Pontisso
Substitution
Italy
20 S. Pontisso
J. Petriccione
Substitution
Italy
10 J. Petriccione
F. Di Francesco
Substitution
Italy
94 F. Di Francesco
M. Liberali
Substitution
Italy
14 M. Liberali
G. Alesi
Italy
30 G. Alesi
F. Pittarello
Italy
8 F. Pittarello
Pitch
D. Mascardi
Italy
12 D. Mascardi
P. Beruatto
Substitution
Italy
11 P. Beruatto
G. Aurelio
Italy
31 G. Aurelio
P. Hristov
Bulgaria
55 P. Hristov
A. Matějů
Czech Republic
37 A. Matějů
L. Sernicola
Substitution
Italy
17 L. Sernicola
M. Valoti
Italy
5 M. Valoti
Á. Nagy
Substitution
Hungary
8 Á. Nagy
C. Comotto
Substitution
Italy
34 C. Comotto
G. Di Serio
Substitution
Italy
20 G. Di Serio
G. Lapadula
Peru
10 G. Lapadula

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 25, 2026, 10:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo
Capacity :
14650
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Marco Piccinini
A. El Filali
Giuseppe Vingo
Mattia Regattieri

Statistics

Possession
CAT
58%
SPE
42%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 4
5 Shots 2
45 Dangerous attacks 54
64 Possession 36
9 Corners 2
20 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

7 Dribble Attempts 8
19 Throwins 18
2 Successful Dribbles 3
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
9 Goal Kicks 7
4 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5
0 Penalties 1
3 Injuries 1
9 Goal Attempts 12
97 Ball Safe 65

Attacking

63 Attacks 71
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

11 Key Passes 9
41 Long Passes 52
15 Successful Long Passes 28
413 Passes 229
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 54
85 Successful Passes Percentage 68
351 Successful Passes 155

Defensive

42 Duels Won 36
12 Tackles 16
3 Interceptions 7
2 Saves 4

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 15
5 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

10 Fouls 20
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Marco Piccinini

Starting XI ▼

22
Mirko Pigliacelli
Mirko Pigliacelli Goalkeeper
6.77
4
Matias Antonini
Matias Antonini Defender
6.93
6
Fellipe Jack
Fellipe Jack Defender
6.7
62
Ruggero Frosinini
Ruggero Frosinini
Defender77'
6.61
84
Tommaso Cassandro
Tommaso Cassandro Defender
6.99
10
Jacopo Petriccione
Jacopo Petriccione Midfielder
6.99
32
Fabio Rispoli
Fabio Rispoli
Midfielder71'
6.78
20
Simone Pontisso
Simone Pontisso Midfielder
7.21
21
Marco Pompetti
Marco Pompetti
Midfielder78'
6.66
27
Costantino Favasuli
Costantino Favasuli Midfielder
6.92
94
Federico Di Francesco
Federico Di Francesco Midfielder
6.78
2
Gonçalo do Lago Pontes Esteves
Gonçalo do Lago Pontes Esteves
Defender89'
5.86
8
Filippo Pittarello
Filippo Pittarello Attacker
2
6.97
14
Mattia Liberali
Mattia Liberali Attacker
6.77
19
Patrick Nuamah
Patrick Nuamah
Attacker78'
6.47
30
Gabriele Alesi
Gabriele Alesi Attacker
6.73
Referee : Marco Piccinini

Starting XI ▼

12
Diego Mascardi
Diego Mascardi Goalkeeper
6.83
11
Pietro Beruatto
Pietro Beruatto Defender
6.85
70
Emanuele Adamo
Emanuele Adamo
Midfielder78'
6.63
17
Leonardo Sernicola
Leonardo Sernicola Defender
6.76
32
Luca Vignali
Luca Vignali
Defender87'
6.52
31
Giuseppe Aurelio
Giuseppe Aurelio Defender
6.66
37
Ales Mateju
Ales Mateju Defender
6.83
55
Petko Hristov
Petko Hristov Defender
6.67
5
Mattia Valoti
Mattia Valoti Midfielder
7.11
8
Ádám Nagy
Ádám Nagy Midfielder
6.55
60
Alessandro Romano
Alessandro Romano
Midfielder67'
6.9
20
Giuseppe Di Serio
Giuseppe Di Serio Midfielder
6.66
90
Laurs Skjellerup
Laurs Skjellerup
Attacker67'
6.58
34
Christian Comotto
Christian Comotto Midfielder
6.68
6
Alessandro Bellemo
Alessandro Bellemo
Midfielder87'
6.56
10
Gianluca Lapadula
Gianluca Lapadula Attacker
6.8

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Gianluca Lapadula
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
90+3'
Event
Gianluca Lapadula
Review
Event
Gonçalo do Lago Pontes Esteves → Federico Di Francesco
10th Substitution
89'
87'
Event
Alessandro Bellemo → Christian Comotto
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Luca Vignali → Leonardo Sernicola
9th Substitution
Event
Filippo Pittarello
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
82'
80'
Event
Mattia Valoti
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Patrick Nuamah → Mattia Liberali
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Filippo Pittarello
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
78'
Event
Marco Pompetti → Simone Pontisso
7th Substitution
78'
78'
Event
Emanuele Adamo → Pietro Beruatto
5th Substitution
Event
Ruggero Frosinini → Fellipe Jack
4th Substitution
77'
75'
Event
Petko Hristov 
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Fabio Rispoli → Jacopo Petriccione
3rd Substitution
71'
67'
Event
Alessandro Romano → Ádám Nagy
1st Substitution
67'
Event
Laurs Skjellerup → Giuseppe Di Serio
2nd Substitution
Event
Jacopo Petriccione
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
66'
Event
Fellipe Jack
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
63'
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Giuseppe Di Serio
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
44'
Event
Mattia Valoti
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Jacopo Petriccione
Goal awarded
26'
Event
Jacopo Petriccione
Header / 1st Goal
24'

CONCLUSION

Catanzaro's 4-2 victory over Spezia exemplified their strength as the pre-designated superior side. Tied 1-1 at halftime, they leveraged 64% possession to dominate the second half and secure the points. A significant 57.8% structural deviation underscored their outperformance, with efficiency in line and market alignment holding firm. Absent red cards kept the game balanced without disruptions, allowing pure tactical execution. Spezia's efforts yielded two goals but couldn't bridge the possession and conversion gap. This outcome reinforces Catanzaro's control, clinical edge, and ability to capitalize on advantages, vital for ongoing success in competitive fixtures.

Catanzaro vs Spezia preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.