Catanzaro vs Palermo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo Sun, 17 May - 6:00 PM
Serie B
Catanzaro CAT
Versus
Palermo PAL
KICKOFF : Sun, 17 May - 6:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 1 of 2

CONTEXT

Catanzaro host Palermo in Serie B (Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals) at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo. Domestically, Catanzaro sit 5th in the table while Palermo are 4th. Power ranking favours Palermo by 3.9 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Catanzaro (5th) hosts Palermo (4th) in Leg 1 of Serie B promotion play-off semi-finals at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo.
  • Form: Palermo leads in form with a score of 28.22 against Catanzaro's 17.44.
  • Squad: No squad composition or injury details available for either team.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is not available for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics unavailable due to lack of supporting data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance unavailable as xG data not enabled, low confidence proxy used.
  • xVariable: Palermo holds a power score of 64.36, surpassing Catanzaro's 60.49 by 3.9 points.
  • Market: Catanzaro 31.5% (Δ-0.1%) | Draw 27.5% (Δ+0.2%) | Palermo 41% (Δ+-0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Catanzaro A. Aquilani
A. Aquilani
VS
Palermo F. Inzaghi
F. Inzaghi
1.74
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.04
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Avellino Rank: 54 W
Bari 1908 Rank: 50 L
Palermo Rank: 64 L
Spezia Rank: 51 W
Juve Stabia Rank: 57 D
Modena Rank: 56 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Venezia Rank: 70 L
Catanzaro Rank: 61 W
Reggiana Rank: 47 D
Cesena Rank: 52 W
Frosinone Rank: 69 D
Avellino Rank: 53 W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 1 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Catanzaro
31.54%
Draw
27.51%
Away Palermo
40.96%

Movement

Changes since opening
Catanzaro
-0.14%
Draw
+0.17%
Palermo
-0.03%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.49
64.36
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Catanzaro
Palermo
Power Score
60.49
64.36
League Position
5
4
Global Rank
471
347

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Catanzaro — Opponent-weighted form score
Palermo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Catanzaro Palermo

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Catanzaro CAT Home
6 matches
Palermo PAL Away
Match Record
3
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
3
Goals
9
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
9
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-15T01:09:52+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
M. Pigliacelli
22 M. Pigliacelli
T. Cassandro
84 T. Cassandro
M. Antonini Lui
4 M. Antonini Lui
N. Brighenti
23 N. Brighenti
C. Favasuli
27 C. Favasuli
J. Petriccione
10 J. Petriccione
S. Pontisso
20 S. Pontisso
F. Di Francesco
94 F. Di Francesco
M. Liberali
14 M. Liberali
G. Alesi
30 G. Alesi
F. Pittarello
8 F. Pittarello
Pitch
J. Joronen
66 J. Joronen
P. Ceccaroni
32 P. Ceccaroni
P. Peda
29 P. Peda
B. Bereszyński
19 B. Bereszyński
T. Augello
3 T. Augello
A. Blin
28 A. Blin
J. Segre
8 J. Segre
N. Pierozzi
27 N. Pierozzi
A. Vasic
14 A. Vasic
A. Palumbo
5 A. Palumbo
J. Le Douaron
21 J. Le Douaron

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Semi Finals · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium :
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo
Capacity :
14650
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

22
Mirko Pigliacelli
Mirko Pigliacelli Goalkeeper
6.77
14
Mattia Liberali
Mattia Liberali Midfielder
6.81
27
Costantino Favasuli
Costantino Favasuli Midfielder
6.95
30
Gabriele Alesi
Gabriele Alesi Midfielder
6.74
94
Federico Di Francesco
Federico Di Francesco Midfielder
6.87
8
Filippo Pittarello
Filippo Pittarello Centre Forward
7.05
4
Matias Antonini
Matias Antonini Centre Back
6.91
10
Jacopo Petriccione
Jacopo Petriccione Central Midfield
7.02
20
Simone Pontisso
Simone Pontisso Central Midfield
7.21
23
Nicolò Brighenti
Nicolò Brighenti Left Back
6.8
84
Tommaso Cassandro
Tommaso Cassandro Right Back
7.01

Starting XI ▼

66
Jesse Joronen
Jesse Joronen Goalkeeper
7.04
3
Tommaso Augello
Tommaso Augello Midfielder
7.1
5
Antonio Palumbo
Antonio Palumbo Midfielder
7.18
14
Aljosa Vasic
Aljosa Vasic Midfielder
6.62
27
Niccolò Pierozzi
Niccolò Pierozzi Midfielder
6.9
21
Jérémy Le Douaron
Jérémy Le Douaron Centre Forward
6.71
8
Jacopo Segre
Jacopo Segre Central Midfield
6.84
19
Bartosz Bereszyński
Bartosz Bereszyński Right Back
6.55
28
Alexis Blin
Alexis Blin Central Midfield
6.48
29
Patryk Peda
Patryk Peda Centre Back
6.71
32
Pietro Ceccaroni
Pietro Ceccaroni Left Back
6.99

CONCLUSION

Palermo's 3.9-point power advantage and superior form score of 28.22 position them as favorites in this first-leg semi-final, despite Catanzaro's home advantage at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo. The visitors' higher ratings suggest better preparedness for play-off intensity, while Catanzaro must harness crowd energy to compete. Absent efficiency, set-piece, or transition insights, success will depend on fundamental execution and mental fortitude. Projections reflect a close contest, with Palermo at 40.8%, draw at 27.2%, and Catanzaro at 32%, pointing to potential stalemate or narrow away win. This leg shapes the tie, rewarding the team that balances caution with ambition effectively.

Catanzaro vs Palermo preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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