Catanzaro vs Palermo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo Sun, 17 May - 6:00 PM
Serie B
Catanzaro CAT
3 Winner 0
Palermo PAL
Full Time Sun, 17 May 6:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 1 of 2
Mattia Liberali - 41'
Pietro Iemmello - 15', 1'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Catanzaro delivered a stunning performance to defeat Palermo 3-0 in the opening leg of their knockout encounter. All the action unfolded in the first half as the home side found the net three times before the break, leaving their opponents with a mountain to climb in the return fixture. Palermo controlled more of the ball with 55 percent possession but failed to convert their opportunities into goals. Catanzaro's clinical finishing and organized defense were key factors in this result against a team considered stronger on paper. The clean sheet and early dominance provide a solid foundation for the second leg. This victory showcases the home team's ability to exceed expectations in crucial matches. The aggregate score now stands heavily in Catanzaro's favor heading into the next encounter.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Catanzaro recorded a minimal structural deviation of 2.4 percent in the match outcome.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match projections for both sides.
  • xG alignment: No xG figures were recorded so alignment could not be evaluated.
  • Market alignment: The 3-0 result proved consistent with overall market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed due to unavailable underlying data.
  • Event impact: Three first-half goals created a decisive halftime lead of 3-0 for Catanzaro.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued so no distortion from dismissals affected play.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

E. Feliciani

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Di Gioia

1st Assistant

Italy

A. Cavallina

2nd Assistant

Italy

N. Turrini

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Serie B Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 27.42
Yellow cards / match 4.04
Red cards / match 0.29
Penalties / match 0.28
Catanzaro A. Aquilani
A. Aquilani
VS
Palermo F. Inzaghi
F. Inzaghi
1.74
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.04
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Avellino Rank: 54 W
Bari 1908 Rank: 50 L
Palermo Rank: 64 L
Spezia Rank: 51 W
Juve Stabia Rank: 57 D
Modena Rank: 56 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Venezia Rank: 70 L
Catanzaro Rank: 61 W
Reggiana Rank: 47 D
Cesena Rank: 52 W
Frosinone Rank: 68 D
Avellino Rank: 53 W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Catanzaro
97.6%
Draw
1.91%
Away Palermo
0.49%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.6
62.7
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Catanzaro
Palermo
Power Score
61.6
62.7
League Position
5
4
Global Rank
423
397

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Catanzaro — Opponent-weighted form score
Palermo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Catanzaro Palermo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Catanzaro

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Palermo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Catanzaro ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Palermo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.22
20.55
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.55
32.22
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Catanzaro +1.12 Efficiency Index
vs
Palermo -1.12 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Catanzaro
Palermo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Catanzaro ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Palermo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Catanzaro Palermo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Catanzaro Palermo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Catanzaro
Palermo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Catanzaro
vs
Palermo
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Catanzaro Palermo
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Catanzaro 0.43
Palermo 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Catanzaro Palermo
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Catanzaro 0.00
Palermo 0.10
Catanzaro
Palermo
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CAT had peak pressure around 17'.
  • CAT started the game with stronger pressure.
CAT Pressure PAL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CAT reached the top pressure at 17' (78.90).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Catanzaro CAT Home
6 matches
Palermo PAL Away
Match Record
3
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
3
Goals
9
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
9
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T09:06:05+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Pigliacelli
Italy
22 M. Pigliacelli
T. Cassandro
Italy
84 T. Cassandro
M. Antonini Lui
Brazil
4 M. Antonini Lui
N. Brighenti
Italy
23 N. Brighenti
C. Favasuli
Italy
27 C. Favasuli
J. Petriccione
Italy
10 J. Petriccione
S. Pontisso
Substitution
Italy
20 S. Pontisso
G. Alesi
Substitution
Italy
30 G. Alesi
M. Liberali
Substitution
Italy
14 M. Liberali
P. Iemmello
Substitution
Italy
9 (C) P. Iemmello
F. Pittarello
Italy
8 F. Pittarello
Pitch
J. Joronen
Finland
66 J. Joronen
P. Ceccaroni
Italy
32 P. Ceccaroni
G. Magnani
Italy
96 G. Magnani
P. Peda
Poland
29 P. Peda
T. Augello
Substitution
Italy
3 T. Augello
F. Ranocchia
Substitution
Italy
10 F. Ranocchia
J. Segre
Substitution
Italy
8 (C) J. Segre
N. Pierozzi
Substitution
Italy
27 N. Pierozzi
A. Palumbo
Italy
5 A. Palumbo
J. Le Douaron
Substitution
France
21 J. Le Douaron
J. Pohjanpalo
Finland
20 J. Pohjanpalo

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Semi Finals · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium :
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo
Capacity :
14650
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ermanno Feliciani
Vittorio Di Gioia
Alex Cavallina
Niccolò Turrini

Statistics

Possession
CAT
45%
PAL
55%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 0
6 Shots 1
30 Dangerous attacks 46
45 Possession 55
6 Corners 2
16 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

9 Dribble Attempts 7
13 Throwins 29
8 Goal Kicks 6
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 71
3 Successful Dribbles 5
4 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 2
11 Goal Attempts 10
61 Ball Safe 65
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

63 Attacks 99
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

371 Passes 447
17 Successful Long Passes 24
79 Successful Passes Percentage 78
292 Successful Passes 350
56 Long Passes 60
11 Key Passes 8
30 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40

Defensive

6 Interceptions 8
4 Tackles 12
1 Saves 3

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 5
15 Total Crosses 20

Discipline

8 Fouls 16
3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Ermanno Feliciani

Starting XI ▼

22
Mirko Pigliacelli
Mirko Pigliacelli Goalkeeper
7.19
4
Matias Antonini
Matias Antonini Defender
6.71
23
Nicolò Brighenti
Nicolò Brighenti Defender
7.49
84
Tommaso Cassandro
Tommaso Cassandro Defender
7.32
10
Jacopo Petriccione
Jacopo Petriccione Midfielder
6.68
20
Simone Pontisso
Simone Pontisso Midfielder
7.32
21
Marco Pompetti
Marco Pompetti
Midfielder76'
6.76
27
Costantino Favasuli
Costantino Favasuli Midfielder
6.43
30
Gabriele Alesi
Gabriele Alesi Midfielder
6.8
32
Fabio Rispoli
Fabio Rispoli
Midfielder85'
6.59
8
Filippo Pittarello
Filippo Pittarello Attacker
6.61
9
Pietro Iemmello
Pietro Iemmello (C) Attacker
2
8.81
94
Federico Di Francesco
Federico Di Francesco
Attacker85'
6.46
14
Mattia Liberali
Mattia Liberali Attacker
7.15
62
Ruggero Frosinini
Ruggero Frosinini
Defender76'
6.17
Referee : Ermanno Feliciani

Starting XI ▼

66
Jesse Joronen
Jesse Joronen Goalkeeper
6.4
29
Patryk Peda
Patryk Peda Defender
6.02
32
Pietro Ceccaroni
Pietro Ceccaroni Defender
6.67
96
Giangiacomo Magnani
Giangiacomo Magnani Defender
6.57
3
Tommaso Augello
Tommaso Augello Midfielder
6.41
18
Rui Modesto
Rui Modesto
Midfielder61'
6.92
8
Jacopo Segre
Jacopo Segre (C) Midfielder
6.31
17
Samuel Giovane
Samuel Giovane
Midfielder88'
10
Filippo Ranocchia
Filippo Ranocchia Midfielder
6.48
28
Alexis Blin
Alexis Blin
Midfielder60'
6.59
27
Niccolò Pierozzi
Niccolò Pierozzi Midfielder
6.34
11
Emmanuel Gyasi
Emmanuel Gyasi
Defender46'
6.37
5
Antonio Palumbo
Antonio Palumbo Attacker
7.52
20
Joel Pohjanpalo
Joel Pohjanpalo Attacker
6.65
21
Jérémy Le Douaron
Jérémy Le Douaron Attacker
6.26
7
Dennis Johnsen
Dennis Johnsen
Attacker52'
6.58

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ruggero Frosinini
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+2'
88'
Event
Samuel Giovane → Jacopo Segre
9th Substitution
Event
Federico Di Francesco → Pietro Iemmello
7th Substitution
85'
Event
Fabio Rispoli → Gabriele Alesi
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Ruggero Frosinini → Mattia Liberali
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Marco Pompetti → Simone Pontisso
6th Substitution
76'
61'
Event
Rui Modesto → Tommaso Augello
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Alexis Blin → Filippo Ranocchia
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Tommaso Augello
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
52'
Event
Dennis Johnsen → Jérémy Le Douaron
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Emmanuel Gyasi → Niccolò Pierozzi
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+4'
Event
Niccolò Pierozzi
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Mattia Liberali
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
41'
32'
Event
Filippo Ranocchia
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Pietro Iemmello
Goal awarded
16'
Event
Pietro Iemmello
Header / 2nd Goal
15'
Event
Pietro Iemmello
Header / 1st Goal
1'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Rui Modesto takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ruggero Frosinini receives a yellow card.
88
Update Update
Samuel Giovane replaces Jacopo Segre.
87
Attempt Attempt
Marco Pompetti takes a right-footed shot but misses.
87
Attempt Attempt
Ruggero Frosinini takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
86
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Palumbo's left-footed shot is saved.
85
Update Update
Federico Di Francesco is on, and Pietro Iemmello is off.
85
Update Update
Fabio Rispoli replaces Gabriele Alesi.
82
Attempt Attempt
Alexis Blin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
79
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Pittarello takes a right-footed shot but misses.
76
Update Update
Ruggero Frosinini is on, and Mattia Liberali is off.
76
Update Update
Marco Pompetti comes on for Simone Pontisso.
73
Update Update
Patryk Peda takes a header, but it misses the target.
70
Attempt Attempt
Joel Pohjanpalo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
65
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Pittarello's header is saved.
61
Update Update
Rui Modesto comes on for Tommaso Augello.
60
Update Update
Alexis Blin comes on for Filippo Ranocchia.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tommaso Augello receives a yellow card.
58
Attempt Attempt
Pietro Iemmello takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
58
Attempt Attempt
Simone Pontisso's right-footed shot is saved.
55
Attempt Attempt
Gabriele Alesi takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
52
Update Update
Dennis Johnsen comes on for Jeremy Le Douaron.
49
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Palumbo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Emmanuel Gyasi comes on for Niccolo Pierozzi.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Niccolo Pierozzi receives a yellow card.
41
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Mattia Liberali with his left foot results in a goal.
40
Attempt Attempt
Pietro Ceccaroni attempts a header but misses the shot.
33
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Filippo Ranocchia receives a yellow card.
30
Attempt Attempt
Simone Pontisso's right-footed shot is blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Simone Pontisso takes a right-footed shot but misses.
19
Attempt Attempt
Pietro Ceccaroni takes a left-footed shot but misses.
19
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Pittarello takes a right-footed shot but misses.
16
Update Update
The VAR decision confirms that the goal by Pietro Iemmello is awarded.
15
Update Update
Pietro Iemmello scores with a header.
15
Attempt Attempt
Nicolo Brighenti attempts a header but misses the shot.
1
Update Update
Pietro Iemmello scores with a header.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Catanzaro 3-0 Palermo. Structural assessment: Catanzaro exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Catanzaro vs Palermo preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.