Catanzaro vs Modena Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

Stadio Nicola Ceravolo Tue, 14 Apr - 5:00 PM

Serie B

Catanzaro CAT

2 – 2

Modena MOD

Full Time Tue, 14 Apr 5:00 PM

Round 31 Regular Season

Fabio Rispoli - 40'

Filippo Pittarello - 5'

Pedro Mendes - 90+5'

Davide Adorni - 28'

CONTEXT

The match between Catanzaro and Modena is finished, ending with a full-time score of 2-1 to the home side. Catanzaro led 2-1 at half-time and successfully protected that narrow advantage through the second period to claim victory. Pre-match expectations pointed to a tightly balanced contest, with projected chances of 37.6 percent for Catanzaro, 33.8 percent for Modena and 28.6 percent for the draw. The result represented a significant deviation in favor of Catanzaro, who were rated the stronger team and converted that edge into a win. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations throughout. Catanzaro held 55 percent possession to Modena’s 45 percent, though no expected goals data was available to assess further alignment. The outcome proved consistent with the pre-match projection overall. No red cards were shown and no major disruptive events altered the flow of play.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Catanzaro showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

C. Allegretta

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Scatragli

1st Assistant

A. Cipressa

2nd Assistant

A. Arena

4th Official

A. Aquilani

A. Sottil

1.85

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.31

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

3 - 1 - 4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Catanzaro

37.63%

Draw

28.61%

Modena

33.76%

Movement

Changes since opening

Catanzaro

+32.67%

Draw

-61.95%

Modena

+29.28%

Team Power Ranking

28.16

22.16

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Catanzaro

Modena

Power Score

28.16

22.16

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Catanzaro — Opponent-weighted form score

Modena — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Catanzaro Modena

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Catanzaro

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Modena

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Catanzaro ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Modena

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

17.73

22.67

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

22.67

17.73

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Catanzaro -0.47 Efficiency Index

Modena +0.47 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Catanzaro

Modena

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Catanzaro ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Modena

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Catanzaro Modena

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Catanzaro Modena

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Catanzaro

Modena

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Catanzaro

Modena

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Catanzaro Modena

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Catanzaro Modena

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Catanzaro

Modena

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

MOD had peak pressure around 3'.
MOD started the game with stronger pressure.
Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.

CAT Pressure MOD Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: MOD reached the top pressure at 3' (66.71).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Catanzaro CAT Home

8 matches

Modena MOD Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-1

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-15T00:01:03+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

Match Formation 3-5-2

22 M. Pigliacelli

84 T. Cassandro

4 M. Antonini Lui

6 F. Moreira Pacheco

27 C. Favasuli

32 F. Rispoli

20 S. Pontisso

30 G. Alesi

14 M. Liberali

9 P. Iemmello

8 F. Pittarello

22 M. Pezzolato

20 B. Nieling

28 D. Adorni

25 A. Dellavalle

29 M. Cotali

8 S. Santoro

16 F. Gerli

17 Y. Massolin

7 F. Zampano

99 M. De Luca

10 G. Ambrosino

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 14, 2026, 05:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 31 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadio Nicola Ceravolo

Capacity :

14650

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ , Clear

Referees :

Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta

Marco Scatragli

Alessandro Cipressa

Alberto Arena

Statistics

Possession

CAT

53%

MOD

47%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2

2 Big Chances Created 4

8 Shots 8

35 Dangerous attacks 44

55 Possession 45

5 Corners 5

16 Free kicks 8

2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

11 Goal Kicks 7

16 Throwins 14

2 Successful Dribbles 2

25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

2 Injuries 2

8 Goal Attempts 11

8 Dribble Attempts 4

5 Substitutions 5

1 Assists 1

75 Ball Safe 65

1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

69 Attacks 69

0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

4 Key Passes 5

87 Successful Passes Percentage 81

396 Passes 308

344 Successful Passes 250

44 Long Passes 57

21 Successful Long Passes 24

48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42

Defensive

4 Tackles 13

31 Duels Won 27

1 Saves 3

3 Interceptions 8

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 18

2 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

8 Fouls 16

3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta

Manager ▼

A. Aquilani Coach

Starting XI ▼

Mirko Pigliacelli Goalkeeper

6.79

Matias Antonini Defender

6.94

Fellipe Jack Defender

6.85

Bruno Verrengia

Defender84'

6.42

Tommaso Cassandro Defender

7.03

Simone Pontisso Midfielder

7.21

Davide Buglio

Midfielder85'

6.71

Costantino Favasuli Midfielder

6.93

Ruggero Frosinini

Defender74'

6.62

Gabriele Alesi Midfielder

6.67

Fabio Rispoli Midfielder

6.75

Filippo Pittarello Attacker

6.97

Pietro Iemmello Attacker

7.07

Federico Di Francesco

Attacker55'

6.73

Mattia Liberali Attacker

6.74

Marco Pompetti

Midfielder74'

6.62

Substitutes ▼

Federico Di Francesco

Attacker55'

6.73

Ruggero Frosinini

Defender74'

6.62

Marco Pompetti

Midfielder74'

6.62

Bruno Verrengia

Defender84'

6.42

Davide Buglio

Midfielder85'

6.71

Bench ▼

Christian Marietta Goalkeeper

Gonçalo do Lago Pontes Esteves Defender

5.86

Ervin Bashi Defender

6.56

Rémi Oudin Midfielder

6.6

Patrick Nuamah Attacker

6.54

N'Dri Koffi Attacker

6.51

Simone Ardizzone Attacker

Referee : Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta