Catanzaro vs Empoli Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo Mon, 9 Mar - 12:08 AM
Serie B
Catanzaro CAT
3 Winner 2
Empoli EMP
Full Time Mon, 9 Mar 12:08 AM
Tommaso Cassandro - 73'
Filippo Pittarello - 63', 56'
Goal
|
Goal
Marco Nasti - 15'
Salvatore Elia - 1'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Catanzaro 3–2 Empoli. The result saw Catanzaro take the points. Catanzaro showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 64%–36%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Catanzaro showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

V. Crezzini

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Mokhtar

1st Assistant

A. El Filali

2nd Assistant

L. Massimi

4th Official

Catanzaro A. Aquilani
A. Aquilani
VS
Empoli A. Dionisi
A. Dionisi
1.72
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.13
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Frosinone Rank: D
Virtus Entella Rank: W
Mantova Rank: W
Pescara Rank: W
Reggiana Rank: W
Südtirol Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Frosinone Rank: D
Reggiana Rank: D
Juve Stabia Rank: L
Palermo Rank: L
Modena Rank: D
Carrarese Rank: L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Catanzaro
44.16%
Draw
28.23%
Away Empoli
27.61%

Movement

Changes since opening
Catanzaro
+1.47%
Draw
-0.05%
Empoli
-1.42%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.32
38.79
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Catanzaro
Empoli
Power Score
56.32
38.79
League Position
5
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Catanzaro — Opponent-weighted form score
Empoli — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Catanzaro Empoli

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Catanzaro

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Empoli

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Catanzaro ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Empoli
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.61
18.47
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.47
29.61
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Catanzaro +1.06 Efficiency Index
vs
Empoli -1.06 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Catanzaro
Empoli
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Catanzaro ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Empoli
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Catanzaro Empoli
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Catanzaro Empoli
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Catanzaro
Empoli
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Catanzaro CAT Home
1 matches
Empoli EMP Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:08:35+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 09, 2026, 12:08 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium :
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo
Capacity :
15000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Valerio Crezzini
Gamal Mokhtar
A. El Filali
Luca Massimi

Statistics

Possession
CAT
61%
EMP
39%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 2
59 Dangerous attacks 33
64 Possession 36
9 Corners 1
26 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

11 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
9 Dribble Attempts 15
2 Assists 2
17 Throwins 16
1 Goal Kicks 8
55 Ball Safe 56
1 Successful Dribbles 7
10 Goal Attempts 5
5 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

120 Attacks 90
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
19 Successful Long Passes 18
89 Successful Passes Percentage 75
497 Successful Passes 243
556 Passes 322
15 Key Passes 3
44 Long Passes 51

Defensive

17 Tackles 19
0 Saves 3
12 Interceptions 8

Build-up

37 Total Crosses 15
9 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

13 Fouls 25
1 Offsides 0

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
N'Dri Koffi → Filippo Pittarello
10th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Matias Antonini
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
86'
Event
Ruggero Frosinini → Pietro Iemmello
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Marco Pompetti → Simone Pontisso
9th Substitution
84'
84'
Event
Flavio Bianchi → Marco Curto
7th Substitution
Event
Tommaso Cassandro
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
73'
Event
Patrick Nuamah → Mattia Liberali
6th Substitution
72'
66'
Event
Daniel Fila → Edoardo Saporiti
5th Substitution
Event
Filippo Pittarello
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
63'
58'
Event
Lorenzo Ignacchiti → Rareș Ilie
4th Substitution
Event
Filippo Pittarello
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
56'
Event
Gabriele Alesi → Marco D'Alessandro
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Antonio Candela → Salvatore Elia
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Nicolas Haas → Gerard Yepes
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
24'
Event
Luca Magnino
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
17'
Event
Gerard Yepes
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
17'
Event
4th Yellowcard
15'
Event
Marco Nasti
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
1'
Event
Salvatore Elia
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Catanzaro exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Catanzaro vs Empoli preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Serie B, Italy View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ