Catanzaro vs Bari 1908 Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo Fri, 8 May - 6:30 PM
Serie B
Catanzaro CAT
2 Winner 3
Bari 1908 BAR
Full Time Fri, 8 May 6:30 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
N'Dri Koffi - 90+7' (P)
Bruno Verrengia - 12'
Goal
|
Goal
Kevin Piscopo - 50', 40'
Gabriele Moncini - 23'

CONTEXT

Catanzaro fell 2-3 to Bari 1908 at home in a match defined by stark contrasts in play style. Despite enjoying 75% possession, Catanzaro managed only two goals, trailing 1-2 at halftime. Bari 1908, with just 25% of the ball, executed precise counters to secure victory. Labeled the stronger team, Catanzaro dominated territory but lacked finishing edge, allowing Bari to capitalize efficiently. No red cards were issued, maintaining structural integrity throughout. The result exhibited a significant 58.1% deviation favoring Bari 1908, with team efficiencies holding in line with assessments. Market alignment held true, underscoring Bari's opportunistic performance against possession-heavy hosts.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Bari 1908's 2-3 win represented a significant 58.1% structural deviation from expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Both teams' efficiencies remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated lacking data.
  • Event impact: No major events altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards meant no distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Sozza

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Monaco

1st Assistant

Italy

G. Zanellati

2nd Assistant

Italy

Giuseppe Mucera

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Serie B Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 27.27
Yellow cards / match 4.04
Red cards / match 0.31
Penalties / match 0.29
Catanzaro A. Aquilani
A. Aquilani
VS
Bari 1908 M. Longo
M. Longo
1.69
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.92
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Palermo Rank: 64 L
Spezia Rank: 51 W
Juve Stabia Rank: 56 D
Modena Rank: 57 D
Avellino Rank: 54 D
Monza Rank: 66 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Virtus Entella Rank: 49 W
Avellino Rank: 52 L
Venezia Rank: 69 L
Monza Rank: 66 L
Modena Rank: 57 W
Carrarese Rank: 53 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 4 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Catanzaro
27.15%
Draw
30.96%
Away Bari 1908
41.9%

Movement

Changes since opening
Catanzaro
+26.95%
Draw
+29.04%
Bari 1908
-55.99%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.59
51.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Catanzaro
Bari 1908
Power Score
59.59
51.44
League Position
5
17
Global Rank
506
755

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Catanzaro — Opponent-weighted form score
Bari 1908 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Catanzaro Bari 1908

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Catanzaro

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Bari 1908

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Catanzaro ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bari 1908
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
15.13
38.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.00
15.13
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Catanzaro -2.18 Efficiency Index
vs
Bari 1908 +2.18 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Catanzaro
Bari 1908
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Catanzaro ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bari 1908
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Catanzaro Bari 1908
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Catanzaro Bari 1908
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Catanzaro
Bari 1908
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Catanzaro
vs
Bari 1908
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Catanzaro Bari 1908
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Catanzaro 0.19
Bari 1908 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Catanzaro Bari 1908
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Catanzaro 0.10
Bari 1908 0.04
Catanzaro
Bari 1908
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CAT had peak pressure around 39'.
  • CAT started the game with stronger pressure.
CAT Pressure BAR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CAT reached the top pressure at 39' (85.78).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Catanzaro CAT Home
7 matches
Bari 1908 BAR Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
4
Draws
4
1
Losses
2
Goals
10
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
10
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T00:02:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
C. Marietta
Italy
1 C. Marietta
E. Bashi
Albania
5 E. Bashi
N. Brighenti
Substitution
Italy
23 N. Brighenti
B. Verrengia
Italy
26 B. Verrengia
G. Pontes Esteves
Substitution
Portugal
2 G. Pontes Esteves
M. Pompetti
Italy
21 M. Pompetti
D. Buglio
Substitution
Italy
98 D. Buglio
M. D'Alessandro
Substitution
Italy
77 M. D'Alessandro
R. Oudin
Substitution
France
28 R. Oudin
F. Rispoli
32 F. Rispoli
N. Koffi
France
39 N. Koffi
Pitch
M. Cerofolini
Italy
31 M. Cerofolini
D. Nikolaou
Greece
43 D. Nikolaou
C. Odenthal
Netherlands
26 C. Odenthal
V. Mantovani
Italy
13 V. Mantovani
E. Dorval
France
93 E. Dorval
R. Pagano
Italy
8 R. Pagano
G. Maggiore
Substitution
Italy
18 G. Maggiore
T. Pontes Esteves
Substitution
Portugal
19 T. Pontes Esteves
K. Piscopo
Substitution
Italy
28 K. Piscopo
E. Rao
Substitution
Italy
17 E. Rao
G. Moncini
Substitution
Italy
11 G. Moncini

General Information

Date & Time :
May 08, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo
Capacity :
14650
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Simone Sozza
Giacomo Monaco
Glauco Zanellati
Giuseppe Mucera

Statistics

Possession
CAT
69%
BAR
31%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
4 Big Chances Created 3
6 Shots 7
47 Dangerous attacks 30
75 Possession 25
8 Corners 0
11 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

21 Throwins 21
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 13
8 Goal Kicks 8
9 Dribble Attempts 8
1 Assists 2
78 Ball Safe 52
6 Successful Dribbles 1
7 Goal Attempts 5
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Injuries 1
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

83 Attacks 62
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

91 Successful Passes Percentage 68
535 Successful Passes 132
44 Long Passes 40
20 Successful Long Passes 15
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
591 Passes 193
8 Key Passes 6

Defensive

46 Duels Won 35
13 Tackles 9
0 Saves 4
2 Interceptions 9

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 6
2 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

13 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Simone Sozza

Starting XI ▼

1
Christian Marietta
Christian Marietta Goalkeeper
5
Ervin Bashi
Ervin Bashi Defender
23
Nicolò Brighenti
Nicolò Brighenti Defender
94
Federico Di Francesco
Federico Di Francesco
Attacker52'
26
Bruno Verrengia
Bruno Verrengia Defender
2
Gonçalo do Lago Pontes Esteves
Gonçalo do Lago Pontes Esteves Midfielder
84
Tommaso Cassandro
Tommaso Cassandro
Defender52'
21
Marco Pompetti
Marco Pompetti Midfielder
77
Marco D'Alessandro
Marco D'Alessandro Midfielder
19
Patrick Nuamah
Patrick Nuamah
Attacker79'
98
Davide Buglio
Davide Buglio Midfielder
30
Gabriele Alesi
Gabriele Alesi
Attacker52'
28
Rémi Oudin
Rémi Oudin Attacker
14
Mattia Liberali
Mattia Liberali
Attacker69'
32
Fabio Rispoli
Fabio Rispoli Attacker
39
N'Dri Koffi
N'Dri Koffi Attacker
Referee : Simone Sozza

Starting XI ▼

31
Michele Cerofolini
Michele Cerofolini Goalkeeper
13
Valerio Mantovani
Valerio Mantovani Defender
26
Cas Odenthal
Cas Odenthal Defender
43
Dimitrios Nikolaou
Dimitrios Nikolaou Defender
8
Riccardo Pagano
Riccardo Pagano Midfielder
18
Giulio Maggiore
Giulio Maggiore Midfielder
24
Lorenzo Dickmann
Lorenzo Dickmann
Defender90+2'
19
Tomás Esteves
Tomás Esteves Midfielder
80
Federico Artioli
Federico Artioli
Midfielder69'
28
Kevin Piscopo
Kevin Piscopo Midfielder
2
30
Moussa Mané
Moussa Mané
Defender69'
93
Mehdi Dorval
Mehdi Dorval Midfielder
11
Gabriele Moncini
Gabriele Moncini Attacker
90
Marvin Cuni
Marvin Cuni
Attacker79'
17
Emanuele Rao
Emanuele Rao Attacker
10
Nicola Bellomo
Nicola Bellomo
Midfielder78'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
N'Dri Koffi
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
90+7'
90+2'
Event
Lorenzo Dickmann → Giulio Maggiore
10th Substitution
Event
Patrick Nuamah → Marco D'Alessandro
9th Substitution
79'
79'
Event
Marvin Cuni → Gabriele Moncini
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Nicola Bellomo → Emanuele Rao
7th Substitution
Event
Mattia Liberali → Rémi Oudin
5th Substitution
69'
69'
Event
Federico Artioli → Tomás Esteves
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Moussa Mané → Kevin Piscopo
6th Substitution
Event
Var
68'
Event
Federico Di Francesco → Nicolò Brighenti
3rd Substitution
52'
Event
Gabriele Alesi → Davide Buglio
1st Substitution
52'
Event
Tommaso Cassandro → Gonçalo do Lago Pontes Esteves
2nd Substitution
52'
50'
Event
Kevin Piscopo
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
1ST-HALF
40'
Event
Kevin Piscopo
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
26'
Event
Kevin Piscopo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
23'
Event
Gabriele Moncini
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Davide Buglio
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
16'
Event
Bruno Verrengia
Header / 1st Goal
12'

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Ndri Koffi scores, making it 3 penalties for the team.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ndri Koffi scores with a right-footed shot.
90
Update Update
Lorenzo Dickmann replaces Giulio Maggiore.
85
Attempt Attempt
Gabriele Alesi takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
84
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Liberali's left-footed shot is blocked.
79
Update Update
Marvin Cuni is on, and Gabriele Moncini is off.
79
Update Update
Patrick Nuamah replaces Marco D Alessandro.
78
Update Update
Nicola Bellomo is replaced by Emanuele Rao.
74
Attempt Attempt
Gabriele Moncini attempts a header but misses the shot.
71
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Cassandro takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
69
Update Update
Federico Artioli comes on for Tomas Esteves.
69
Update Update
Balla Moussa Mane comes on for Kevin Piscopo.
69
Update Update
Mattia Liberali comes on for Remi Oudin.
60
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Rao takes a right-footed shot but misses.
60
Attempt Attempt
Gabriele Moncini takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
52
Update Update
Tommaso Cassandro comes on for Goncalo Esteves.
52
Update Update
Gabriele Alesi comes on for Davide Buglio.
52
Update Update
Federico Di Francesco replaces Nicolo Brighenti.
50
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kevin Piscopo scores, making it 1-3.
50
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Piscopo takes a right-footed shot and scores.
47
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Piscopo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Remi Oudin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
40
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Piscopo takes a left-footed shot and scores.
38
Attempt Attempt
Ndri Koffi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Ndri Koffi takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
26
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Rao takes a right-footed shot but misses.
26
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kevin Piscopo receives a yellow card.
23
Attempt Attempt
Gabriele Moncini scores with a right-footed shot.
14
Attempt Attempt
Fabio Rispoli takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bruno Verrengia scores to make it 1-0.
12
Update Update
Bruno Verrengia scores with a header.

CONCLUSION

Bari 1908's 2-3 victory over possession-dominant Catanzaro highlights efficiency's primacy in outcomes. With 25% possession, Bari scored three times via counters, outpacing Catanzaro's 75% control that yielded two goals. Halftime score of 1-2 foreshadowed Bari's resilience. As the stronger side per analysis, Catanzaro's failure to convert underscored Bari's clinical edge. Significant deviation accrued to Bari, consistent with market views and efficiency lines. Absent xG, surface metrics affirm Bari's upset through opportunism, prompting Catanzaro to refine chance creation.

Catanzaro vs Bari 1908 preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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