Catanzaro vs Avellino Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo Tue, 12 May - 7:00 PM
Serie B
Catanzaro CAT
3 Winner 0
Avellino AVE
Full Time Tue, 12 May 7:00 PM
Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round
Pietro Iemmello - 90+3' (P)
Tommaso Cassandro - 83'
Simone Pontisso - 41'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Catanzaro delivered a commanding 3-0 home win against Avellino, asserting dominance from start to finish. They established a 1-0 lead by halftime and added two more goals in the second half to seal the victory. Despite Avellino controlling 53% of possession to Catanzaro's 47%, the hosts were superior in converting chances into goals. Identified as the stronger team beforehand, Catanzaro's performance featured a significant 50.7% structural deviation in their favor. No red cards disrupted play, and the match unfolded without notable second-half adjustments. This outcome aligned with pre-match assessments, showcasing Catanzaro's clinical edge and exposing Avellino's inability to capitalize on territorial advantage. The clean sheet further highlighted their defensive solidity.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Catanzaro's 3-0 win showed a significant 50.7% structural deviation favoring the home team.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency levels stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented alignment determination.
  • Market alignment: Final result aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to lack of data.
  • Event impact: No key events or second-half adjustments influenced the outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

L. Marinelli

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

League averages

Serie B Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 27.6
Yellow cards / match 4.05
Red cards / match 0.3
Penalties / match 0.29
Catanzaro A. Aquilani
A. Aquilani
VS
Avellino D. Ballardini
D. Ballardini
1.69
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bari 1908 Rank: 50 L
Palermo Rank: 64 L
Spezia Rank: 51 W
Juve Stabia Rank: 57 D
Modena Rank: 56 D
Avellino Rank: 53 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Modena Rank: 58 W
Empoli Rank: 54 L
Bari 1908 Rank: 50 W
Mantova Rank: 55 W
Catanzaro Rank: 61 D
Palermo Rank: 65 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Catanzaro
49.28%
Draw
28.16%
Away Avellino
22.56%

Movement

Changes since opening
Catanzaro
-48.15%
Draw
+25.78%
Avellino
+22.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.72
51.13
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Catanzaro
Avellino
Power Score
60.72
51.13
League Position
5
8
Global Rank
471
698

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Catanzaro — Opponent-weighted form score
Avellino — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Catanzaro Avellino

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Catanzaro

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Avellino

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Catanzaro ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Avellino
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
45.74
19.81
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.81
45.74
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Catanzaro +2.49 Efficiency Index
vs
Avellino -2.49 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Catanzaro
Avellino
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Catanzaro ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Avellino
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Catanzaro Avellino
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Catanzaro Avellino
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Catanzaro
Avellino
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Catanzaro
vs
Avellino
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Catanzaro Avellino
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Catanzaro 0.67
Avellino 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Catanzaro Avellino
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Catanzaro 0.00
Avellino 0.10
Catanzaro
Avellino
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CAT had peak pressure around 32'.
  • AVE started the game with stronger pressure.
CAT Pressure AVE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CAT reached the top pressure at 32' (85.42).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Catanzaro CAT Home
4 matches
Avellino AVE Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
3
-2
Goal Difference
+2

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T00:02:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
M. Pigliacelli
Italy
22 M. Pigliacelli
T. Cassandro
Italy
84 T. Cassandro
M. Antonini Lui
Brazil
4 M. Antonini Lui
N. Brighenti
Italy
23 N. Brighenti
C. Favasuli
Italy
27 C. Favasuli
S. Pontisso
Substitution
Italy
20 S. Pontisso
J. Petriccione
Substitution
Italy
10 J. Petriccione
F. Di Francesco
Substitution
Italy
94 F. Di Francesco
M. Liberali
Substitution
Italy
14 M. Liberali
G. Alesi
Substitution
Italy
30 G. Alesi
F. Pittarello
Italy
8 F. Pittarello
Pitch
A. Iannarilli
Italy
1 A. Iannarilli
F. Missori
Italy
2 F. Missori
P. Enrici
Italy
56 P. Enrici
A. Izzo
Italy
4 A. Izzo
T. Cancellotti
Substitution
Italy
29 T. Cancellotti
M. Besaggio
Substitution
Italy
39 M. Besaggio
L. Palmiero
Substitution
Italy
6 L. Palmiero
M. Palumbo
Norway
20 M. Palumbo
D. Sounas
Substitution
Greece
24 D. Sounas
R. Russo
Italy
10 R. Russo
C. Patierno
Substitution
Italy
9 C. Patierno

General Information

Date & Time :
May 12, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round
Stadium :
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo
Capacity :
14650
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Livio Marinelli

Statistics

Possession
CAT
49%
AVE
51%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 3
30 Dangerous attacks 50
47 Possession 53
6 Corners 5
11 Free kicks 20
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

6 Goal Kicks 7
8 Successful Dribbles 2
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
14 Throwins 18
17 Dribble Attempts 7
73 Ball Safe 65
13 Goal Attempts 5
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

74 Attacks 108
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

48 Long Passes 53
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
386 Passes 434
84 Successful Passes Percentage 81
325 Successful Passes 352
19 Successful Long Passes 23
14 Key Passes 6

Defensive

12 Tackles 21
8 Interceptions 7
3 Saves 5

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 15
3 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

20 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Livio Marinelli

Starting XI ▼

22
Mirko Pigliacelli
Mirko Pigliacelli Goalkeeper
4
Matias Antonini
Matias Antonini Defender
23
Nicolò Brighenti
Nicolò Brighenti Defender
84
Tommaso Cassandro
Tommaso Cassandro Defender
10
Jacopo Petriccione
Jacopo Petriccione Midfielder
19
Patrick Nuamah
Patrick Nuamah
Attacker90+4'
20
Simone Pontisso
Simone Pontisso Midfielder
21
Marco Pompetti
Marco Pompetti
Midfielder80'
27
Costantino Favasuli
Costantino Favasuli Midfielder
94
Federico Di Francesco
Federico Di Francesco Midfielder
32
Fabio Rispoli
Fabio Rispoli
Midfielder69'
8
Filippo Pittarello
Filippo Pittarello Attacker
14
Mattia Liberali
Mattia Liberali Attacker
62
Ruggero Frosinini
Ruggero Frosinini
Defender80'
30
Gabriele Alesi
Gabriele Alesi Attacker
9
Pietro Iemmello
Pietro Iemmello
Attacker80'
Referee : Livio Marinelli

Starting XI ▼

1
Antony Iannarilli
Antony Iannarilli Goalkeeper
2
Filippo Missori
Filippo Missori Defender
4
Armando Izzo
Armando Izzo Defender
29
Tommaso Cancellotti
Tommaso Cancellotti Defender
27
Andréa Le Borgne
Andréa Le Borgne
Midfielder80'
56
Patrick Enrici
Patrick Enrici Defender
6
Luca Palmiero
Luca Palmiero Midfielder
11
Luca D'Andrea
Luca D'Andrea
Attacker80'
20
Martin Palumbo
Martin Palumbo Midfielder
24
Dimitrios Sounas
Dimitrios Sounas Midfielder
94
Roberto Insigne
Roberto Insigne
Attacker60'
39
Michele Besaggio
Michele Besaggio Midfielder
8
Luca Pandolfi
Luca Pandolfi
Attacker54'
9
Cosimo Patierno
Cosimo Patierno Attacker
14
Tommaso Biasci
Tommaso Biasci
Attacker54'
10
Raffaele Russo
Raffaele Russo Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Patrick Nuamah → Jacopo Petriccione
10th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Pietro Iemmello
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
90+3'
Event
Tommaso Cassandro
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
83'
Event
Pietro Iemmello → Gabriele Alesi
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Marco Pompetti → Simone Pontisso
9th Substitution
80'
Event
Ruggero Frosinini → Mattia Liberali
7th Substitution
80'
80'
Event
Andréa Le Borgne → Tommaso Cancellotti
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Luca D'Andrea → Luca Palmiero
6th Substitution
Event
Fabio Rispoli → Federico Di Francesco
4th Substitution
69'
60'
Event
Roberto Insigne → Dimitrios Sounas
3rd Substitution
54'
Event
Tommaso Biasci → Cosimo Patierno
1st Substitution
54'
Event
Luca Pandolfi → Michele Besaggio
2nd Substitution
Event
Federico Di Francesco
Goal disallowed
52'
1ST-HALF
Event
Simone Pontisso
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
41'
15'
Event
Tommaso Cancellotti
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Pietro Iemmello scores, making it 3-0.
90
Attempt Attempt
Pietro Iemmello takes a right-footed shot and scores.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Biasci takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Pittarello takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Martin Palumbo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Update Update
Patrick Nuamah replaces Jacopo Petriccione.
83
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Tommaso Cassandro scores to make it 2-0, assisted by Costantino Favasuli.
83
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Cassandro takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
81
Update Update
Pietro Iemmello comes on for Gabriele Alesi.
80
Update Update
Ruggero Frosinini is on, and Mattia Liberali is off.
80
Update Update
Marco Pompetti comes on for Simone Pontisso.
79
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Liberali takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
78
Attempt Attempt
Costantino Favasuli's right-footed shot is saved.
77
Attempt Attempt
Roberto Insigne takes a left-footed shot but misses.
76
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Pittarello takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
75
Attempt Attempt
Luca Pandolfi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
70
Update Update
Luca Pandolfi's header goes wide.
69
Update Update
Fabio Rispoli replaces Federico Di Francesco.
63
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Missori takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
60
Update Update
Roberto Insigne replaces Dimitrios Sounas.
54
Update Update
Luca Pandolfi comes on for Michele Besaggio.
54
Update Update
Tommaso Biasci comes on for Cosimo Patierno.
51
Attempt Attempt
Federico Di Francesco takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
51
Update Update
VAR decision results in a cancelled goal for Federico Di Francesco.
48
Attempt Attempt
Gabriele Alesi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Liberali's left-footed shot is saved.
46
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Liberali's left-footed shot is blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Liberali has a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Simone Pontisso scores, making it 1-0.
41
Attempt Attempt
Simone Pontisso takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
40
Attempt Attempt
Raffaele Russo's right-footed shot is blocked.
38
Attempt Attempt
Michele Besaggio's right-footed shot is saved.
31
Attempt Attempt
Federico Di Francesco's left-footed shot is blocked.
30
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Pittarello takes a right-footed shot but misses.
29
Attempt Attempt
Costantino Favasuli takes a left-footed shot but misses.
26
Attempt Attempt
Cosimo Patierno's left-footed shot is blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Pittarello's right-footed shot is blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Simone Pontisso takes a right-footed shot but misses.
20
Attempt Attempt
Federico Di Francesco takes a left-footed shot but misses.
19
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Liberali's left-footed shot is blocked.
15
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tommaso Cancellotti receives a yellow card.
11
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Cassandro takes a right-footed shot but misses.
10
Attempt Attempt
Dimitrios Sounas takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.

CONCLUSION

Catanzaro's emphatic 3-0 triumph over Avellino cements their status as the superior side in this matchup. Leading 1-0 at halftime, they maintained control and efficiency throughout, overcoming Avellino's slight possession edge. The significant structural deviation of 50.7% underscores their overperformance against expectations. With market alignment confirmed and efficiencies on track, this result lacked complicating factors like red cards. Avellino's failure to score despite more ball time reveals finishing woes. Catanzaro's victory boosts momentum, while Avellino must address vulnerabilities ahead.

Catanzaro vs Avellino preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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