Castellón vs Córdoba Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Nou Estadi Castalia Sat, 2 May - 4:30 PM
La Liga 2
Castellón Castellón
1 Winner 2
Córdoba Córdoba
Full Time Sat, 2 May 4:30 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
Álvaro García - 82'
Goal
|
Goal
Adrián Fuentes - 64', 52'

CONTEXT

Castellón hosted Córdoba in a match that ended 1-2 in favor of the visitors, defying pre-match expectations where Castellón was considered the stronger team. The first half finished 0-0, with Castellón holding 56% possession but unable to break the deadlock. Córdoba, despite lower possession at 44%, capitalized in the second half with two goals to secure the upset victory. This outcome highlighted a significant structural deviation, as Córdoba overcame the home side's dominance. No red cards were shown, and there were no notable second-half tactical adjustments reported. The result underscores Córdoba's clinical finishing against Castellón's profligacy, marking a classic case of underdogs prevailing through efficiency.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Córdoba's 1-2 win showed a significant 84.5% deviation favoring the visitors over the stronger home team.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment with outcome.
  • Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to lack of data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or major events altered the game's flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

E. Mallo Fernández

Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

Aleksandar Angelov

4th Official

S. García Aguilera

1st Assistant

M. Barroso Galán

2nd Assistant

Castellón P. Hernández Domínguez
P. Hernández Domínguez
VS
Córdoba I. Ania Cadavieco
I. Ania Cadavieco
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.46
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Málaga Rank: 68 W
Burgos Rank: 67 W
Mirandés Rank: 59 D
Granada Rank: 65 W
Almería Rank: 70 W
Albacete Rank: 66 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Gijón Rank: 64 W
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 57 W
Real Zaragoza Rank: 60 W
Cádiz Rank: 56 W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 69 L
Mirandés Rank: 59 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 4 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Castellón
64.73%
Draw
19.81%
Away Córdoba
15.46%

Movement

Changes since opening
Castellón
+64.41%
Draw
+11.12%
Córdoba
-75.54%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.88
64.49
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Castellón
Córdoba
Power Score
67.88
64.49
League Position
4
9
Global Rank
253
344

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Castellón — Opponent-weighted form score
Córdoba — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Castellón Córdoba

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Castellón

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Córdoba

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Castellón ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Córdoba
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
49.29
30.80
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.80
49.29
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Castellón +1.88 Efficiency Index
vs
Córdoba -1.88 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Castellón
Córdoba
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Castellón ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Córdoba
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Castellón Córdoba
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Castellón Córdoba
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Castellón
Córdoba
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Castellón
vs
Córdoba
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Castellón Córdoba
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Castellón 0.33
Córdoba 0.39
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Castellón Córdoba
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Castellón 0.06
Córdoba 0.01
Castellón
Córdoba
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Castellón had peak pressure around 85'.
  • Córdoba started the game with stronger pressure.
Castellón Pressure Córdoba Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Castellón reached the top pressure at 85' (91.24).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Castellón Castellón Home
8 matches
Córdoba Córdoba Away
Match Record
0
Wins
4
4
Draws
4
4
Losses
0
Goals
8
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
8
-4
Goal Difference
+4

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:06:02+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
R. Matthys
Belgium
13 R. Matthys
J. Mellot
France
22 J. Mellot
F. Brignani
Italy
3 F. Brignani
A. Jiménez Benítez
Substitution
Spain
5 A. Jiménez Benítez
L. Alcázar Moreno
Substitution
Spain
12 L. Alcázar Moreno
B. Kibambe Cipenga
DR Congo
16 B. Kibambe Cipenga
B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
Substitution
Spain
15 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
R. Pompeu da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
25 R. Pompeu da Silva
A. Jakobsen
Denmark
19 A. Jakobsen
A. Calatrava Torrado
Spain
21 A. Calatrava Torrado
O. Camara
Substitution
Guinea
9 O. Camara
Pitch
I. Iker
Andorra
1 I. Iker
I. Vilarrasa Palacios
Spain
2 I. Vilarrasa Palacios
R. González Alves
Brazil
16 R. González Alves
J. Martín Valerón
Spain
4 J. Martín Valerón
C. Albarrán Sanz
Spain
21 C. Albarrán Sanz
D. Requena Sánchez
Spain
30 D. Requena Sánchez
A. Del Moral Saelices
Substitution
Spain
20 A. Del Moral Saelices
S. Guardiola Navarro
Substitution
Spain
14 S. Guardiola Navarro
K. Villodres Medina
Substitution
Spain
11 K. Villodres Medina
A. Fuentes González
Substitution
Spain
18 A. Fuentes González
C. Carracedo García
Substitution
Spain
23 C. Carracedo García

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Nou Estadi Castalia
Capacity :
15500
Attendance :
13217
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Aleksandar Ivaylov Angelov
E. Mallo Fernández
Samuel García Aguilera
Marcos Barroso Galán

Statistics

Possession
Castellón
56%
Córdoba
44%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 5
10 Shots 7
72 Dangerous attacks 31
56 Possession 44
12 Corners 3
23 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 6

Match Overview

1 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 0
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
5 Goal Kicks 11
24 Throwins 17
10 Successful Dribbles 4
15 Dribble Attempts 12
14 Goal Attempts 10
76 Ball Safe 74
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

104 Attacks 67
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

319 Successful Passes 250
65 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
22 Successful Long Passes 27
80 Successful Passes Percentage 75
34 Long Passes 67
398 Passes 333
17 Key Passes 10

Defensive

8 Interceptions 18
5 Saves 10
18 Tackles 24
58 Duels Won 46

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 8
11 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

10 Fouls 23
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : E. Mallo Fernández

Starting XI ▼

13
Romain Matthys
Romain Matthys Goalkeeper
6.83
3
Fabrizio Brignani
Fabrizio Brignani Defender
6.74
5
Alberto Jiménez
Alberto Jiménez Defender
7.15
6
Marc-Olivier Doué
Marc-Olivier Doué
Midfielder83'
6.62
12
Lucas Alcázar
Lucas Alcázar Defender
6.78
4
Agustín Sienra
Agustín Sienra
Defender65'
6.66
22
Jérémy Mellot
Jérémy Mellot Defender
6.93
15
Beñat Gerenabarrena
Beñat Gerenabarrena Midfielder
6.95
7
Awer Mabil
Awer Mabil
Midfielder65'
6.83
16
Brian Cipenga
Brian Cipenga Midfielder
7.06
19
Adam Jakobsen
Adam Jakobsen Midfielder
6.64
25
Ronaldo
Ronaldo Midfielder
6.79
10
Israel Suero
Israel Suero
Midfielder73'
6.9
9
Ousmane Camara
Ousmane Camara Attacker
6.91
23
Álvaro García
Álvaro García
Attacker73'
6.52
21
Álex Calatrava
Álex Calatrava Attacker
7.26
Referee : E. Mallo Fernández

Starting XI ▼

1
Iker Álvarez
Iker Álvarez Goalkeeper
6.88
2
Ignasi Vilarrasa
Ignasi Vilarrasa Defender
6.77
4
Álex Martín
Álex Martín Defender
6.77
16
Rubén Alves
Rubén Alves Defender
7
21
Carlos Albarrán
Carlos Albarrán Defender
6.49
14
Sergi Guardiola
Sergi Guardiola Midfielder
6.81
10
Jacobo González
Jacobo González
Attacker61'
6.98
20
Alberto del Moral
Alberto del Moral Midfielder
6.68
25
Mikel Goti
Mikel Goti
Midfielder83'
6.86
30
Dani Requena
Dani Requena Midfielder
6.94
11
Kevin Medina
Kevin Medina Attacker
6.76
5
Diego Bri
Diego Bri
Attacker61'
6.77
18
Adrián Fuentes
Adrián Fuentes Attacker
2
6.8
6
Diego Percan
Diego Percan
Attacker68'
6.61
23
Cristian Carracedo
Cristian Carracedo Attacker
7.35
7
Théo Zidane
Théo Zidane
Midfielder83'
6.66

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Théo Zidane
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Marc-Olivier Doué → Alberto Jiménez
8th Substitution
83'
83'
Event
Théo Zidane → Cristian Carracedo
10th Substitution
83'
Event
Mikel Goti → Alberto del Moral
9th Substitution
Event
Álvaro García
Header / 3rd Goal
82'
81'
Event
Carlos Albarrán
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
79'
Event
Iker Álvarez
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Álvaro García → Ousmane Camara
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Israel Suero → Ronaldo
7th Substitution
73'
68'
Event
Diego Percan → Adrián Fuentes
5th Substitution
Event
Awer Mabil → Beñat Gerenabarrena
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Agustín Sienra → Lucas Alcázar
4th Substitution
65'
64'
Event
Adrián Fuentes
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
61'
Event
Jacobo González → Sergi Guardiola
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Diego Bri → Kevin Medina
1st Substitution
54'
Event
Sergi Guardiola
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
52'
Event
Adrián Fuentes
Header / 1st Goal
49'
Event
Alberto del Moral
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Beñat Gerenabarrena
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
15'
7'
Event
Adrián Fuentes
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Percan takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Alex Calatrava takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Agustin Sienra attempts a header but misses the shot.
87
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Requena Sanchez takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
84
Attempt Attempt
Alex Calatrava's left-footed shot is saved.
84
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Requena Sanchez takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
83
Update Update
Theo Zidane comes on for Cristian Carracedo.
83
Update Update
Mikel Goti Lopez comes on for Alberto del Moral.
83
Update Update
Theo Zidane comes on for Cristian Carracedo.
82
Update Update
Alvaro Garcia scores with a header.
79
Attempt Attempt
Fabrizio Brignani takes a shot with his head but misses.
78
Attempt Attempt
Awer Mabil takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
78
Attempt Attempt
Fabrizio Brignani attempts a header but misses the shot.
77
Attempt Attempt
Awer Mabil's right-footed shot is saved.
76
Attempt Attempt
Jacobo Gonzalez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
75
Attempt Attempt
Israel Suero Fernández takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
74
Attempt Attempt
Alvaro Garcia's header is saved.
73
Update Update
Alvaro Garcia is on, and Camara Ousmane is off.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Israel Suero Fernández comes on for Ronaldo Pompeu da Silva.
68
Update Update
On comes Percan, off goes Adrian Fuentes.
66
Attempt Attempt
Adam Jakobsen takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
65
Update Update
Agustin Sienra replaces Lucas Alcazar Moreno.
65
Update Update
Awer Mabil replaces Benat Gerenabarrena.
64
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Fuentes scores with a left-footed shot.
64
Update Update
Goal! Adrian Fuentes scores, making it 0-2.
61
Update Update
Jacobo Gonzalez comes on for Sergio Guardiola Navarro.
61
Update Update
Diego Vicente Bri Carrazoni comes on for Kevin Villodres.
59
Attempt Attempt
Alberto Jimenez Benitez takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
58
Attempt Attempt
Adam Jakobsen takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
52
Update Update
Adrian Fuentes scores with a header.
51
Attempt Attempt
Camara Ousmane takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Adam Jakobsen takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ronaldo Pompeu da Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Alex Calatrava's left-footed shot is blocked.
39
Attempt Attempt
Brian Cipenga takes a left-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Alcazar Moreno takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
39
Attempt Attempt
Alex Calatrava's left-footed shot is blocked.
38
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Fuentes takes a left-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Adam Jakobsen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Camara Ousmane takes a left-footed shot but misses.
22
Attempt Attempt
Ronaldo Pompeu da Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
15
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Benat Gerenabarrena receives a yellow card.
13
Attempt Attempt
Camara Ousmane takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
11
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Villodres takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Villodres takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
8
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Guardiola Navarro takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
2
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Fuentes takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
1
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Fuentes takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Córdoba's triumph over Castellón exemplifies how lower possession does not dictate results, as the visitors converted limited chances into a 1-2 win. Castellón's 56% control yielded just one goal, exposing conversion issues despite being the stronger side. The significant deviation highlights Córdoba's resilience and second-half potency. With no reds or disruptions, the match's purity revealed tactical discipline's value. This upset shifts perceptions of both teams' form heading forward.

Castellón vs Córdoba preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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