Castellón vs Burgos Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Nou Estadi Castalia Sat, 18 Apr - 4:30 PM
La Liga 2
Castellón Castellón
3 Winner 1
Burgos BUR
Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 36 Regular Season
Awer Mabil - 81'
Álex Calatrava - 79'
Ousmane Camara - 9'
Goal
|
Goal
Curro Sánchez - 21' (P)

CONTEXT

Castellón claimed a decisive 3-1 victory over Burgos, overturning pre-match perceptions that positioned Burgos as the stronger side. The first half ended in a 1-1 draw, with both teams trading blows evenly. Castellón then asserted control in the second half, leveraging 64% possession to net two additional goals and secure the win. No red cards marred the contest, and there were no notable second-half tactical adjustments reported. This outcome delivered a significant structural deviation of 44.6% favoring Castellón, whose performance stayed in line with efficiency expectations. Market views aligned with the result, reflecting Castellón's home dominance despite the visitors' favored status. The match showcased Castellón's ability to convert possession into points effectively.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Castellón's victory produced a significant 44.6% structural deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies aligned with pre-match assessments throughout the game.
  • xG alignment: xG data absence prevented assessment of outcome consistency with expected goals.
  • Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-market probability distributions.
  • xG expectations: Missing xG figures precluded evaluation against performance expectations.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no disciplinary distortions influenced the outcome.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Pérez Hernández

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. López De La Llave

1st Assistant

S. Rebollo Merino

2nd Assistant

G. Brull Acerete

4th Official

Castellón P. Hernández Domínguez
P. Hernández Domínguez
VS
Burgos L. Ramis Monfort
L. Ramis Monfort
1.77
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.85
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mirandés Rank: D
Granada Rank: W
Almería Rank: W
Albacete Rank: D
Cultural Leonesa Rank: D
Sporting Gijón Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Gijón Rank: W
Albacete Rank: W
Ceuta Rank: D
Real Valladolid Rank: W
Córdoba Rank: W
SD Eibar Rank: D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Castellón
55.37%
Draw
26.24%
Away Burgos
18.4%

Movement

Changes since opening
Castellón
-42.49%
Draw
+24.32%
Burgos
+18.18%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
29.66
34.38
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Castellón
Burgos
Power Score
29.66
34.38
League Position
2
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Castellón — Opponent-weighted form score
Burgos — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Castellón Burgos

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Castellón

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Burgos

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Castellón ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Burgos
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.42
22.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.50
27.42
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Castellón +0.50 Efficiency Index
vs
Burgos -0.50 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Castellón
Burgos
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Castellón ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Burgos
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Castellón Burgos
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Castellón Burgos
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Castellón
Burgos
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Castellón
vs
Burgos
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Castellón Burgos
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Castellón 0.20
Burgos 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Castellón Burgos
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Castellón 0.05
Burgos 0.04
Castellón
Burgos
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Castellón had peak pressure around 76'.
  • Castellón started the game with stronger pressure.
Castellón Pressure BUR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Castellón reached the top pressure at 76' (70.96).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Castellón Castellón Home
3 matches
Burgos BUR Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
2
Goals
4
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
4
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:06:32+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
R. Matthys
Belgium
13 R. Matthys
B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
Spain
15 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
F. Brignani
Substitution
Italy
3 F. Brignani
A. Jiménez Benítez
Spain
5 A. Jiménez Benítez
L. Alcázar Moreno
Spain
12 L. Alcázar Moreno
P. Santiago López
Substitution
Spain
18 P. Santiago López
D. Hernández Barriuso
Spain
8 D. Hernández Barriuso
R. Pompeu da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
25 R. Pompeu da Silva
A. Jakobsen
Substitution
Denmark
19 A. Jakobsen
A. Calatrava Torrado
Substitution
Spain
21 A. Calatrava Torrado
O. Camara
Guinea
9 O. Camara
Pitch
A. Cantero Armendáriz
Spain
13 A. Cantero Armendáriz
F. Miguel
France
12 F. Miguel
G. Sierra Pérez
Spain
8 G. Sierra Pérez
S. González Martínez
Substitution
Spain
6 S. González Martínez
A. Lizancos Saldaña
Substitution
Spain
2 A. Lizancos Saldaña
K. Appin
Substitution
Martinique
10 K. Appin
M. Atienza Villa
Spain
5 M. Atienza Villa
I. Ruiz
Spain
23 I. Ruiz
V. Mollejo Carpintero
Substitution
Spain
11 V. Mollejo Carpintero
F. Sánchez Rodríguez
Substitution
Spain
16 F. Sánchez Rodríguez
F. Niño Rodriguez
Substitution
Spain
9 F. Niño Rodriguez

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 18, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Nou Estadi Castalia
Capacity :
15500
Attendance :
12653
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Manuel Ángel Pérez Hernández
Gonzalo López De La Llave
S. Rebollo Merino
Gerard Brull Acerete

Statistics

Possession
Castellón
62%
BUR
38%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
14 Shots 7
71 Dangerous attacks 22
64 Possession 36
7 Corners 1
15 Free kicks 16
5 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

6 Substitutions 6
2 Injuries 0
10 Goal Attempts 5
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 18
28 Dribble Attempts 11
3 Assists 0
56 Ball Safe 79
14 Successful Dribbles 2
29 Throwins 11
6 Goal Kicks 10
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 1
118 Attacks 43

Possession

42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
36 Long Passes 55
482 Passes 276
398 Successful Passes 206
15 Successful Long Passes 20
83 Successful Passes Percentage 75
10 Key Passes 5

Defensive

20 Tackles 28
63 Duels Won 54
7 Interceptions 11
1 Saves 3

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 8
4 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

3 Offsides 2
17 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Manuel Ángel Pérez Hernández

Starting XI ▼

13
Romain Matthys
Romain Matthys Goalkeeper
6.84
3
Fabrizio Brignani
Fabrizio Brignani Defender
6.75
4
Agustín Sienra
Agustín Sienra
Defender56'
6.67
5
Alberto Jiménez
Alberto Jiménez Defender
7.16
12
Lucas Alcázar
Lucas Alcázar Defender
6.78
15
Beñat Gerenabarrena
Beñat Gerenabarrena Defender
6.95
8
Diego Barri
Diego Barri Midfielder
6.86
18
Pablo Santiago
Pablo Santiago Midfielder
6.82
7
Awer Mabil
Awer Mabil
Midfielder71'
6.82
19
Adam Jakobsen
Adam Jakobsen Midfielder
6.65
10
Israel Suero
Israel Suero
Midfielder83'
6.92
25
Ronaldo
Ronaldo Midfielder
6.81
16
Brian Cipenga
Brian Cipenga
Attacker56'
7.02
9
Ousmane Camara
Ousmane Camara Attacker
6.45
21
Álex Calatrava
Álex Calatrava Attacker
7.19
6
Marc-Olivier Doué
Marc-Olivier Doué
Midfielder83'
6.62
Referee : Manuel Ángel Pérez Hernández

Starting XI ▼

13
Ander Cantero
Ander Cantero Goalkeeper
7
2
Álex Lizancos
Álex Lizancos Defender
6.96
15
Aitor Buñuel
Aitor Buñuel
Defender46'
6.83
6
Sergio González
Sergio González Defender
6.72
20
Mario González
Mario González
Attacker80'
6.64
8
Grego Sierra
Grego Sierra Defender
6.87
12
Florian Miguel
Florian Miguel Defender
6.98
5
Miguel Atienza
Miguel Atienza Midfielder
6.94
10
Kévin Appin
Kévin Appin Midfielder
6.61
14
David González
David González
Midfielder64'
6.92
11
Víctor Mollejo
Víctor Mollejo Midfielder
6.56
21
Iñigo Córdoba
Iñigo Córdoba
Midfielder64'
6.81
23
Iván Morante
Iván Morante Midfielder
7.01
9
Fer Niño
Fer Niño Attacker
6.9
7
Mateo Mejía
Mateo Mejía
Attacker90+1'
6.75
16
Curro Sánchez
Curro Sánchez Attacker
7.16
3
Oier Luengo
Oier Luengo
Defender76'
6.64

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Marc-Olivier Doué
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
90+7'
90+1'
Event
Mateo Mejía → Fer Niño
12th Substitution
Event
Álvaro García → Ousmane Camara
11th Substitution
90'
Event
Marc-Olivier Doué → Álex Calatrava
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Israel Suero → Adam Jakobsen
10th Substitution
83'
Event
Awer Mabil
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
81'
80'
Event
Mario González → Sergio González
8th Substitution
Event
Álex Calatrava
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
79'
76'
Event
Oier Luengo → Curro Sánchez
7th Substitution
Event
Awer Mabil → Pablo Santiago
6th Substitution
71'
64'
Event
Iñigo Córdoba → Víctor Mollejo
4th Substitution
64'
Event
David González → Kévin Appin
5th Substitution
Event
Ousmane Camara
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
62'
62'
Event
Curro Sánchez
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Brian Cipenga → Ronaldo
2nd Substitution
56'
Event
Agustín Sienra → Fabrizio Brignani
3rd Substitution
56'
48'
Event
Sergio González
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
46'
Event
Aitor Buñuel → Álex Lizancos
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Alberto Jiménez
Handball / 3rd Yellowcard
40'
Event
Fabrizio Brignani
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
35'
Event
Beñat Gerenabarrena
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
24'
21'
Event
Curro Sánchez
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Ousmane Camara
Header / 1st Goal
9'

CONCLUSION

Castellón's 3-1 triumph over Burgos exemplifies their home resilience and second-half execution, defying the stronger-team label on the visitors. The halftime parity gave way to possession-led dominance, yielding a significant deviation yet market-aligned result. Efficiency held steady without disruptive events or reds, affirming Castellón's control. This win propels their campaign, exposing Burgos's vulnerabilities under pressure and setting a positive tone for future fixtures.

Castellón vs Burgos preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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