Castellón vs Almería Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Nou Estadi Castalia Sat, 6 Jun - 7:00 PM
La Liga 2
Castellón Castellón
1 – 1
Almería ALM
Full Time Sat, 6 Jun 7:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 1 of 2
Fabrizio Brignani - 44'
Goal
|
Goal
Sergio Arribas - 66'

CONTEXT

Castellón hosted Almería in the first leg of their two-legged tie, concluding with a 1-1 draw after leading 1-0 at halftime. Castellón, identified as the stronger side, controlled possession with 64 percent compared to Almería's 36 percent. The home team scored first in the opening period, but Almería equalized in the second half to secure the draw. No red cards were issued to either side, and there were no notable second-half adjustments reported. The outcome represented a draw despite Castellón's dominance in ball possession and their status as favorites entering the match. This result sets up an intriguing second leg for both teams involved in the competition.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Castellón showed a significant structural deviation of 76 percent in this match.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match projections for the teams.
  • xG alignment: No expected goals data was available to determine alignment with the match outcome.
  • Market alignment: The draw result was not aligned with market projections.
  • xG expectations: Expectations based on expected goals could not be assessed without available metrics.
  • Event impact: Key events including the goals led to the final 1-1 scoreline without further distortions.
  • Red card distortion: With no red cards issued, there was no distortion from disciplinary actions.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

L. Bestard Servera

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

League averages

La Liga 2 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.15
Yellow cards / match 5
Red cards / match 0.26
Penalties / match 0.32
Castellón P. Hernández Domínguez
P. Hernández Domínguez
VS
Almería J. Ferrer Sicilia
J. Ferrer Sicilia
1.81
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.73
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
SD Eibar Rank: W
Huesca Rank: W
Cádiz Rank: D
Ceuta Rank: D
Córdoba Rank: L
Málaga Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Valladolid Rank: W
Sporting Gijón Rank: L
Las Palmas Rank: L
Burgos Rank: D
Mirandés Rank: W
Granada Rank: W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 1 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Castellón
51.85%
Draw
24%
Away Almería
24.15%

Movement

Changes since opening
Castellón
+46.35%
Draw
-67.74%
Almería
+21.4%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
31.82
29.45
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Castellón
Almería
Power Score
31.82
29.45
League Position
6
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Castellón — Opponent-weighted form score
Almería — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Castellón Almería

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Castellón

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Almería

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Castellón ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Almería
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Castellón Almería
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Castellón Almería
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Castellón
Almería
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Castellón
vs
Almería
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Castellón Almería
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Castellón 0.00
Almería 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Castellón Almería
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Castellón 0.00
Almería 0.00
Castellón
Almería
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Castellón had peak pressure around 36'.
  • Castellón started the game with stronger pressure.
Castellón Pressure ALM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Castellón reached the top pressure at 36' (57.48).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Castellón Castellón Home
10 matches
Almería ALM Away
Match Record
4
Wins
5
1
Draws
1
5
Losses
4
Goals
18
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
18
+4
Goal Difference
-4

Data last updated: 2026-06-06T19:00:15+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
R. Matthys
Belgium
13 R. Matthys
B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
Spain
15 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
A. Jiménez Benítez
Spain
5 (C) A. Jiménez Benítez
F. Brignani
Italy
3 F. Brignani
L. Alcázar Moreno
Substitution
Spain
12 L. Alcázar Moreno
P. Santiago López
Substitution
Spain
18 P. Santiago López
R. Pompeu da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
25 R. Pompeu da Silva
D. Hernández Barriuso
Spain
8 D. Hernández Barriuso
A. Jakobsen
Substitution
Denmark
19 A. Jakobsen
A. Calatrava Torrado
Spain
21 A. Calatrava Torrado
O. Camara
Substitution
Guinea
9 O. Camara
Pitch
A. Fernández Moreno
Spain
1 A. Fernández Moreno
A. Muñoz Miguel
Spain
3 A. Muñoz Miguel
F. Bonini
Italy
18 F. Bonini
R. Ely
Brazil
5 R. Ely
D. Chirino
Substitution
Curaçao
22 D. Chirino
S. Dzodic
Serbia
29 S. Dzodic
D. Lopy
Senegal
17 D. Lopy
J. Morcillo Conesa
Substitution
Spain
7 J. Morcillo Conesa
S. Arribas Calvo
Substitution
Spain
11 S. Arribas Calvo
A. Embarba Blázquez
Substitution
Spain
23 (C) A. Embarba Blázquez
M. De la Fuente Escudero
Substitution
Spain
24 M. De la Fuente Escudero

General Information

Date & Time :
Jun 06, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Semi Finals · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium :
Nou Estadi Castalia
Capacity :
15500
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ , Clear
Referees :
Lluís Bestard Servera

Statistics

Possession
Castellón
56%
ALM
44%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
9 Shots 3
75 Dangerous attacks 21
64 Possession 36
8 Corners 0
18 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

52 Ball Safe 53
5 Goal Kicks 9
7 Goal Attempts 4
5 Substitutions 5
17 Throwins 12
0 Assists 1
5 Dribble Attempts 13
5 Successful Dribbles 13
31 Successful Dribbles Percentage 72

Attacking

110 Attacks 76

Possession

28 Long Passes 20
427 Passes 289
81 Successful Passes Percentage 71
9 Key Passes 3

Defensive

1 Saves 1
11 Tackles 21
3 Interceptions 14
47 Duels Won 66

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 5

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
15 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Lluís Bestard Servera

Starting XI ▼

13
Romain Matthys
Romain Matthys Goalkeeper
6.85
3
Fabrizio Brignani
Fabrizio Brignani Defender
6.78
5
Alberto Jiménez
Alberto Jiménez (C) Defender
7.16
12
Lucas Alcázar
Lucas Alcázar Defender
6.78
11
Douglas Aurélio
Douglas Aurélio
Attacker88'
6.74
15
Beñat Gerenabarrena
Beñat Gerenabarrena Defender
6.93
8
Diego Barri
Diego Barri Midfielder
6.84
18
Pablo Santiago
Pablo Santiago Midfielder
6.81
14
Raúl Sánchez
Raúl Sánchez
Attacker72'
6.65
19
Adam Jakobsen
Adam Jakobsen Midfielder
6.69
10
Israel Suero
Israel Suero
Midfielder72'
6.9
25
Ronaldo
Ronaldo Midfielder
6.85
6
Marc-Olivier Doué
Marc-Olivier Doué
Midfielder60'
6.62
9
Ousmane Camara
Ousmane Camara Attacker
6.91
2
Tincho Conde
Tincho Conde
Defender88'
6.4
21
Álex Calatrava
Álex Calatrava Attacker
7.35
Referee : Lluís Bestard Servera

Starting XI ▼

1
Andrés Fernández
Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper
7.03
3
Álex Muñoz
Álex Muñoz Defender
6.87
5
Rodrigo Ely
Rodrigo Ely Defender
6.86
18
Federico Bonini
Federico Bonini Defender
6.86
22
Daijiro Chirino
Daijiro Chirino Defender
6.69
21
Chumi
Chumi
Defender75'
6.44
7
Jon Morcillo
Jon Morcillo Midfielder
7.09
10
Nico Melamed
Nico Melamed
Midfielder62'
6.87
11
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Midfielder
7.54
12
Léo Baptistão
Léo Baptistão
Attacker84'
6.85
17
Dion Lopy
Dion Lopy Midfielder
6.88
23
Adrián Embarba
Adrián Embarba (C) Midfielder
7.16
2
Arnau Puigmal
Arnau Puigmal
Midfielder75'
6.75
29
Stefan Dzodic
Stefan Dzodic Midfielder
6.83
24
Miguel de la Fuente
Miguel de la Fuente Attacker
6.56
9
Thalys
Thalys
Attacker62'
6.7

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Álex Muñoz
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Douglas Aurélio → Lucas Alcázar
9th Substitution
88'
Event
Tincho Conde → Ousmane Camara
10th Substitution
88'
84'
Event
Léo Baptistão → Sergio Arribas
8th Substitution
75'
Event
Chumi → Daijiro Chirino
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Arnau Puigmal → Adrián Embarba
7th Substitution
Event
Raúl Sánchez → Pablo Santiago
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Israel Suero → Adam Jakobsen
5th Substitution
72'
66'
Event
Sergio Arribas
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
62'
Event
Nico Melamed → Jon Morcillo
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Thalys → Miguel de la Fuente
3rd Substitution
Event
Marc-Olivier Doué → Ronaldo
1st Substitution
60'
1ST-HALF
Event
Fabrizio Brignani
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
44'
Event
Adam Jakobsen
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
41'
Event
Diego Barri
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
37'
32'
Event
Miguel de la Fuente
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
24'
Event
Sergio Arribas
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
5'
Event
Jon Morcillo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alex Munoz receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Fabrizio Brignani takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Marc Olivier Doue takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
88
Update Update
Douglas Aurelio is on, and Lucas Alcazar Moreno is off.
88
Substitution Substitution
Martin Conde is substituted for Camara Ousmane.
86
Attempt Attempt
Camara Ousmane takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
83
Update Update
Leonardo Carrilho Baptistao comes on for Sergio Arribas Calvo.
80
Attempt Attempt
Raul Sanchez takes a left-footed shot but misses.
75
Update Update
Arnau Puigmal comes on for Adrian Embarba.
75
Update Update
Chumi is on, and Daijiro Chirino is off.
72
Update Update
Raul Sanchez comes on for Pablo Santiago.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Israel Suero Fernández comes on for Adam Jakobsen.
70
Attempt Attempt
Alex Calatrava takes a left-footed shot but misses.
70
Attempt Attempt
Alex Calatrava takes a left-footed shot but misses.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sergio Arribas Calvo scores to make it 1-1, assisted by Stefan Džodić.
66
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Arribas Calvo takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
64
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Melamed Ribaudo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
63
Attempt Attempt
Camara Ousmane takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
62
Update Update
Thalys Gomes De Araujo is on, and Miguel De la Fuente is off.
62
Update Update
Nicolas Melamed Ribaudo comes on for Jon Morcillo.
60
Update Update
Marc Olivier Doue is on, and Ronaldo Pompeu da Silva is off.
44
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Fabrizio Brignani scores to make it 1-0.
44
Attempt Attempt
Fabrizio Brignani takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
44
Attempt Attempt
Fabrizio Brignani takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
44
Attempt Attempt
A left-footed shot from Barri is blocked.
44
Attempt Attempt
Fabrizio Brignani takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adam Jakobsen receives a yellow card.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Barri.
36
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Ely's header is saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Miguel De la Fuente takes a right-footed shot but misses.
34
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Santiago takes a right-footed shot but misses.
33
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Miguel De la Fuente receives a yellow card.
30
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Santiago takes a right-footed shot but misses.
28
Attempt Attempt
Ronaldo Pompeu da Silva takes a right-footed shot but misses.
24
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sergio Arribas Calvo receives a yellow card.
19
Attempt Attempt
Camara Ousmane takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
5
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jon Morcillo receives a yellow card.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Castellón 1-1 Almería. Structural assessment: Castellón exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Castellón vs Almería preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.