Castellón vs Almería Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain

Nou Estadi Castalia Thu, 2 Apr - 6:00 PM

La Liga 2

Castellón Castellón

Almería ALM

Full Time Thu, 2 Apr 6:00 PM

Round 33 Regular Season

Pablo Santiago - 90+3'

Ronaldo - 34'

Tincho Conde 89'

CONTEXT

The match is finished, with Castellón securing a 2-0 victory over Almería after holding a narrow 1-0 lead at half-time. Heading into the fixture, the pre-match market favored the home side with a 49.2% probability of winning, compared to a 24.6% chance for a draw and 26.2% for an Almería victory. The final outcome aligned perfectly with these market expectations. However, securing the win still represented a significant deviation for Castellón against a squad considered to be the stronger team on paper. On the pitch, Almería controlled the tempo with 55% possession, leaving Castellón to operate efficiently with their 45% share of the ball. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, so it cannot be determined if the final scoreline aligned with underlying chance creation. Nonetheless, the overall efficiency shift remained entirely in line with expectations. The flow of the game was notably impacted by a major disciplinary incident. Castellón was forced to play with a numerical disadvantage after receiving a red card. This ejection created a distinct red card distortion in the second half, though the resilient hosts successfully absorbed the pressure to maintain their clean sheet and seal the win.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Castellón showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

E. Mallo Fernández

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. García Aguilera

1st Assistant

M. Barroso Galán

2nd Assistant

M. Ibáñez Juárez

4th Official

P. Hernández Domínguez

J. Ferrer Sicilia

1.75

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.78

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

3 - 1 - 5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Castellón

49.23%

Draw

24.61%

Almería

26.16%

Team Power Ranking

66.4

69.57

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Castellón

Almería

Power Score

66.4

69.57

League Position

Global Rank

273

198

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Castellón — Opponent-weighted form score

Almería — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Castellón Almería

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Castellón

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Almería

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Castellón ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Almería

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

48.33

15.91

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

15.91

48.33

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Castellón +3.29 Efficiency Index

Almería -3.29 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Castellón

Almería

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Castellón ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Almería

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Castellón Almería

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Castellón Almería

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Castellón

Almería

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Castellón Castellón Home

9 matches

Almería ALM Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-2

Data last updated: 2026-04-03T00:00:47+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2

Match Formation 5-3-2

13 R. Matthys

22 J. Mellot

3 F. Brignani

5 A. Jiménez Benítez

12 L. Alcázar Moreno

18 P. Santiago López

25 R. Pompeu da Silva

8 D. Hernández Barriuso

19 A. Jakobsen

21 A. Calatrava Torrado

9 O. Camara

1 A. Fernández Moreno

20 A. Centelles Plaza

18 F. Bonini

5 R. Ely

4 N. Macedo Monte

22 D. Chirino

17 D. Lopy

29 S. Dzodic

11 S. Arribas Calvo

12 L. Carrilho Baptistão

19 S. Njoh Soko

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 02, 2026, 06:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 33 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Nou Estadi Castalia

Capacity :

15500

Attendance :

12412

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Samuel García Aguilera

Marcos Barroso Galán

Marcelo Ibáñez Juárez

E. Mallo Fernández

Statistics

Possession

Castellón

49%

ALM

51%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0

3 Big Chances Created 0

6 Shots 3

55 Dangerous attacks 35

45 Possession 55

8 Corners 5

12 Free kicks 16

1 Yellow Cards 0

1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

1 Hit Woodwork 0

2 Injuries 0

11 Goal Attempts 4

76 Ball Safe 83

8 Successful Dribbles 8

9 Dribble Attempts 23

6 Goal Kicks 10

89 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35

5 Substitutions 5

19 Throwins 22

Attacking

88 Attacks 73

2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

81 Successful Passes Percentage 82

281 Successful Passes 358

39 Long Passes 54

17 Successful Long Passes 22

44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41

10 Key Passes 4

345 Passes 435

Defensive

48 Duels Won 44

21 Tackles 11

10 Interceptions 6

3 Saves 3

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 2

18 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

16 Fouls 12

1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : E. Mallo Fernández

Manager ▼

P. Hernández Domínguez Coach

Starting XI ▼

Romain Matthys Goalkeeper

Fabrizio Brignani Defender

Alberto Jiménez Defender

Lucas Alcázar Defender

Tincho Conde

Defender45+1'

Jérémy Mellot Defender

Diego Barri Midfielder

Pablo Santiago Midfielder

Adam Jakobsen Midfielder

Raúl Sánchez

Attacker84'

Ronaldo Midfielder

Marc-Olivier Doué

Midfielder56'

Ousmane Camara Attacker

Álvaro García

Attacker84'

Álex Calatrava Attacker

Israel Suero

Midfielder84'

Substitutes ▼

Tincho Conde

Defender45+1'

Marc-Olivier Doué

Midfielder56'

Israel Suero

Midfielder84'

Álvaro García

Attacker84'

Raúl Sánchez

Attacker84'

Bench ▼

Amir Abedzadeh Goalkeeper

Salva Ruiz Defender

Ismael Fadel Defender

Michal Willmann Defender

Carlos Segura Midfielder

Guillem Terma Midfielder

Tommaso De Nipoti Attacker

Referee : E. Mallo Fernández