Casa Pia vs Tondela Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal

Estádio Pina Manique Sun, 3 May - 2:30 PM

Liga Portugal

Casa Pia CPAC

Tondela CDT

Full Time Sun, 3 May 2:30 PM

Round 32 Regular Season

Bebeto - 68' (P)

Cassiano 55'

Jérémy Livolant 90+11'

CONTEXT

Casa Pia faced Tondela at home in a Primeira Liga encounter that concluded 0-1 to the visitors. The first half finished goalless at 0-0, with possession closely matched at 48% for Casa Pia and 52% for Tondela. The second half saw a dramatic shift as Casa Pia received two red cards, leaving them numerically disadvantaged and vulnerable. Despite being the stronger team on paper, Casa Pia failed to score, while Tondela netted the decisive goal. This outcome marked a significant structural deviation of 71.1% favoring Tondela. The red cards introduced a clear distortion, altering the game's flow and preventing typical play patterns from emerging. No xG data was available to assess underlying performance metrics.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Match exhibited a 71.1% structural deviation favoring Tondela, rated as significant.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined due to unavailable data.
Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations.
xG expectations: xG expectations were unassessable without recorded data.
Event impact: Two red cards to Casa Pia created a major event impact in the second half.
Red card distortion: Red card distortion occurred due to two dismissals for the home team.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

A. Domingues Narciso

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Santos de Jesus Botelho

1st Assistant

R. da Silva

2nd Assistant

M. Viegas Brazão

4th Official

Á. Pacheco

G. Feio

0.86

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.76

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

1 - 0 - 0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Casa Pia

41.02%

Draw

30.07%

Tondela

28.91%

Movement

Changes since opening

Casa Pia

+40.83%

Draw

+26.37%

Tondela

-67.2%

Team Power Ranking

62.44

52.9

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Casa Pia

Tondela

Power Score

62.44

52.9

League Position

Global Rank

406

481

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Casa Pia — Opponent-weighted form score

Tondela — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Casa Pia Tondela

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Casa Pia

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Tondela

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Casa Pia ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Tondela

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

13.13

19.42

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

19.42

13.13

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Casa Pia -0.61 Efficiency Index

Tondela +0.61 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Casa Pia

Tondela

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Casa Pia ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Tondela

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Casa Pia Tondela

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 1.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Casa Pia Tondela

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

1.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Casa Pia

Tondela

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Casa Pia

Tondela

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Casa Pia Tondela

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Casa Pia Tondela

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Casa Pia

Tondela

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

CDT had peak pressure around 59'.
CPAC started the game with stronger pressure.

CPAC Pressure CDT Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: CDT reached the top pressure at 59' (69.63).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Casa Pia CPAC Home

1 matches

Tondela CDT Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-1

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:04:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

1 P. Sequeira Mejías

4 J. Goulart Silva

18 A. Geraldes de Barros

43 David Sousa

72 G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea

24 I. Mohamed

8 R. Brito

5 A. Conté

29 J. Livolant

90 C. Dias Moreira

11 J. Freitas Silva Marques

31 B. Parise Fontes

27 R. Fernandes Conceição

4 C. Marques

44 J. Antunes da Silva

48 T. Silva Manso

32 J. Rodríguez López

97 C. Alves Santana

90 M. Aiko

79 H. Sequeira

7 P. Pereira dos Santos

16 M. Mesquita Lopes

General Information

Date & Time :

May 03, 2026, 02:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 32 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Estádio Pina Manique

Capacity :

7000

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

André Filipe Domingues Narciso

André Filipe Santos de Jesus Botelho

Rúben João Rodrigues da Silva

Marcos Roberto Viegas Brazão

Statistics

Possession

CPAC

49%

CDT

51%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1

1 Big Chances Created 1

4 Shots 9

46 Dangerous attacks 22

48 Possession 52

7 Corners 2

19 Free kicks 21

1 Yellow Cards 0

2 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

17 Successful Headers 9

10 Dribble Attempts 12

7 Goal Kicks 7

0 Hit Woodwork 1

40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42

20 Throwins 11

4 Successful Dribbles 5

5 Substitutions 5

0 Penalties 1

2 Injuries 1

3 Goal Attempts 7

67 Ball Safe 63

Attacking

102 Attacks 92

1 Counter Attacks 3

1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

75 Successful Passes Percentage 81

263 Successful Passes 329

353 Passes 404

40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51

57 Long Passes 55

23 Successful Long Passes 28

3 Key Passes 4

Defensive

51 Duels Won 46

12 Tackles 11

8 Interceptions 10

5 Saves 3

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 10

4 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

1 Offsides 2

22 Fouls 19

Lineup

Referee : André Filipe Domingues Narciso

Manager ▼

Á. Pacheco Coach

Starting XI ▼

Patrick Sequeira Goalkeeper

6.65

João Goulart Defender

6.58

André Geraldes Defender

6.5

Tiago Morais

Attacker72'

6.61

David Sousa Defender

6.74

Abdu Conté Midfielder

6.72

Kiki

Attacker86'

Rafael Brito Midfielder

6.72

Lawrence Ofori

Midfielder58'

6.52

Iyad Mohamed Midfielder

6.57

Gaizka Larrazabal Midfielder

6.77

Kevin Prieto

Attacker86'

6.58

João Marques Attacker

6.73

Dailon Livramento

Attacker57'

6.58

Jérémy Livolant Attacker

7.04

Cassiano Attacker

6.67

Substitutes ▼

Dailon Livramento

Attacker57'

6.58

Lawrence Ofori

Midfielder58'

6.52

Tiago Morais

Attacker72'

6.61

Kevin Prieto

Attacker86'

6.58

Kiki

Attacker86'

Bench ▼

Ivan Mandić Goalkeeper

6.5

Kaly Defender

6.47

Seba Pérez Midfielder

6.64

Clau Mendes Attacker

6.44

Referee : André Filipe Domingues Narciso