Casa Pia vs Sporting Braga Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Pina Manique Thu, 23 Apr - 6:00 PM
Liga Portugal
Casa Pia CPAC
0 Winner 1
Sporting Braga SCB
Full Time Thu, 23 Apr 6:00 PM
Round 26 Regular Season
|
Goal
Pau Víctor - 37'

CONTEXT

Sporting Braga secured a 0-1 victory over Casa Pia in a match defined by their overwhelming possession advantage, holding 69% to the hosts' 31%. The lone goal came in the first half, establishing a 0-1 halftime lead that Braga maintained through disciplined defending. Casa Pia offered little threat, unable to capitalize on sparse opportunities against the stronger visitors. No red cards marred the proceedings, and the game proceeded without significant second-half adjustments or dramatic shifts. Braga's control reflected their pre-match favoritism, with the outcome showing minimal structural deviation of 2.6%. Efficiency remained in line with expectations, underscoring Braga's tactical superiority in this league fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited minimal structural deviation of 2.6% favoring Sporting Braga.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable xG data.
  • Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be measured without data.
  • Event impact: No major events altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating any distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

Fabio Verssimo

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

H. Carvalho

4th Official

P. de Sá Martins

1st Assistant

H. Marques

2nd Assistant

Casa Pia Á. Pacheco
Á. Pacheco
VS
Sporting Braga C. Vicens
C. Vicens
0.86
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.05
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Santa Clara Rank: D
Alverca Rank: L
Benfica Rank: D
Estrela Amadora Rank: L
Estoril Rank: D
Moreirense Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Famalicão Rank: D
Arouca Rank: W
Moreirense Rank: W
Porto Rank: L
Sporting CP Rank: D
Nacional Rank: W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 0 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Casa Pia
0.19%
Draw
2.38%
Away Sporting Braga
97.43%

Movement

Changes since opening
Casa Pia
0%
Draw
-1.35%
Sporting Braga
+1.36%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
17.51
37.45
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Casa Pia
Sporting Braga
Power Score
17.51
37.45
League Position
16
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Casa Pia — Opponent-weighted form score
Sporting Braga — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Casa Pia Sporting Braga

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Casa Pia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sporting Braga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Casa Pia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Braga
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.19
13.99
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.99
29.19
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Casa Pia +1.47 Efficiency Index
vs
Sporting Braga -1.47 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Casa Pia
Sporting Braga
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Casa Pia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Braga
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Casa Pia Sporting Braga
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Casa Pia Sporting Braga
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Casa Pia
Sporting Braga
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Casa Pia
vs
Sporting Braga
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Casa Pia Sporting Braga
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Casa Pia 0.17
Sporting Braga 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Casa Pia Sporting Braga
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Casa Pia 0.03
Sporting Braga 0.00
Casa Pia
Sporting Braga
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SCB had peak pressure around 43'.
  • SCB started the game with stronger pressure.
CPAC Pressure SCB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SCB reached the top pressure at 43' (49.44).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Casa Pia CPAC Home
7 matches
Sporting Braga SCB Away
Match Record
3
Wins
4
0
Draws
0
4
Losses
3
Goals
9
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
9
-5
Goal Difference
+5

Data last updated: 2026-04-24T00:02:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
P. Sequeira Mejías
Costa Rica
1 P. Sequeira Mejías
J. Goulart Silva
Portugal
4 J. Goulart Silva
A. Geraldes de Barros
Portugal
18 A. Geraldes de Barros
David Sousa
Brazil
43 David Sousa
G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
Spain
72 G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
I. Mohamed
Substitution
Comoros
24 I. Mohamed
L. Ofori
Substitution
Ghana
80 L. Ofori
P. Silva Rosas
Portugal
75 P. Silva Rosas
J. Livolant
France
29 J. Livolant
D. Rocha Livramento do Rosario
Substitution
Netherlands
10 D. Rocha Livramento do Rosario
C. Mendes Vicente
Substitution
Spain
99 C. Mendes Vicente
Pitch
L. Horníček
Czech Republic
1 L. Horníček
G. Moscardo de Salles
Brazil
17 G. Moscardo de Salles
P. Rodrigues de Oliveira
Portugal
15 P. Rodrigues de Oliveira
G. Lagerbielke
Sweden
14 G. Lagerbielke
G. Martínez Aguilera
Substitution
Spain
77 G. Martínez Aguilera
J. Iria Santos Moutinho
Substitution
Portugal
8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho
G. Baptiste
France
29 G. Baptiste
V. Gómez Perea
Spain
2 V. Gómez Perea
D. Tıknaz
Türkiye
34 D. Tıknaz
R. Horta
Portugal
21 R. Horta
Pau Victor
Substitution
Spain
18 Pau Victor

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 23, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 26 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio Pina Manique
Capacity :
7000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Hélder Carvalho
Pedro Nuno de Sá Martins
Hugo Marques
Fabio Verssimo

Statistics

Possession
CPAC
36%
SCB
64%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 6
41 Dangerous attacks 33
31 Possession 69
4 Corners 5
9 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 3
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
22 Throwins 18
11 Successful Headers 26
8 Dribble Attempts 10
8 Goal Kicks 8
68 Ball Safe 85
1 Injuries 1
5 Goal Attempts 5
3 Successful Dribbles 4
0 Assists 1

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
85 Attacks 128
1 Counter Attacks 2

Possession

5 Key Passes 7
71 Successful Passes Percentage 88
312 Passes 730
65 Long Passes 48
32 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
221 Successful Passes 639
21 Successful Long Passes 16

Defensive

13 Tackles 11
11 Interceptions 4
37 Duels Won 50
1 Saves 1

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 12
0 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

3 Offsides 2
9 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Fabio Verssimo

Starting XI ▼

1
Patrick Sequeira
Patrick Sequeira Goalkeeper
6.64
4
João Goulart
João Goulart Defender
6.55
18
André Geraldes
André Geraldes Defender
6.5
43
David Sousa
David Sousa Defender
6.75
24
Iyad Mohamed
Iyad Mohamed Midfielder
6.59
8
Rafael Brito
Rafael Brito
Midfielder71'
6.71
72
Gaizka Larrazabal
Gaizka Larrazabal Midfielder
6.77
75
Pedro Rosas
Pedro Rosas Midfielder
6.52
80
Lawrence Ofori
Lawrence Ofori Midfielder
6.53
42
Seba Pérez
Seba Pérez
Midfielder71'
6.65
10
Dailon Livramento
Dailon Livramento Attacker
6.59
13
Korede Osundina
Korede Osundina
Attacker60'
6.59
29
Jérémy Livolant
Jérémy Livolant Attacker
7.05
99
Clau Mendes
Clau Mendes Attacker
6.42
90
Cassiano
Cassiano
Attacker46'
6.68
Referee : Fabio Verssimo

Starting XI ▼

1
Lukas Hornicek
Lukas Hornicek Goalkeeper
6.79
14
Gustaf Lagerbielke
Gustaf Lagerbielke Defender
6.94
15
Paulo Oliveira
Paulo Oliveira Defender
6.66
17
Gabriel Moscardo
Gabriel Moscardo Defender
6.58
2
Víctor Gómez
Víctor Gómez Midfielder
6.95
8
João Moutinho
João Moutinho Midfielder
7.01
39
Fran Navarro
Fran Navarro
Attacker71'
6.61
29
Gorby
Gorby Midfielder
6.77
77
Gabri Martínez
Gabri Martínez Midfielder
6.65
5
Leonardo Lelo
Leonardo Lelo
Defender63'
6.98
18
Pau Víctor
Pau Víctor Attacker
6.97
10
Rodrigo Zalazar
Rodrigo Zalazar
Midfielder62'
7.49
21
Ricardo Horta
Ricardo Horta Attacker
7.6
34
Demir Ege Tıknaz
Demir Ege Tıknaz Attacker
6.81

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Fran Navarro
Var
Event
Rafael Brito → Iyad Mohamed
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Seba Pérez → Lawrence Ofori
7th Substitution
71'
71'
Event
Fran Navarro → João Moutinho
6th Substitution
63'
Event
Leonardo Lelo → Gabri Martínez
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Rodrigo Zalazar → Pau Víctor
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Lukas Hornicek
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Korede Osundina → Dailon Livramento
2nd Substitution
60'
47'
Event
João Moutinho
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Cassiano → Clau Mendes
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
André Geraldes
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
45'
45'
Event
Pau Víctor
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
37'
Event
Pau Víctor
Header / 1st Goal
Event
David Sousa
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard
18'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Paulo Oliveira from Sporting Braga is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Gustaf Lagerbielke from Sporting Braga wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Casa Pia losing 0-1 to Sporting Braga.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Seba Pérez of Casa Pia.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Seba Pérez of Casa Pia.
90
Update Update
Foul by João Goulart for Casa Pia.
88
Update Update
Rodrigo Zalazar of Sporting Braga is caught offside.
87
Update Update
Rodrigo Zalazar from Sporting Braga wins a free kick in the attacking half.
87
Update Update
Foul committed by Seba Pérez of Casa Pia.
87
Update Update
Foul committed by Rafael Brito of Casa Pia.
87
Update Update
Demir Ege Tiknaz of Sporting Braga wins a free kick in the defensive half.
85
Update Update
Jérémy Livolant of Casa Pia is caught offside.
85
Update Update
Jérémy Livolant from Casa Pia wins a free kick on the right wing.
85
Update Update
Foul committed by Gabriel Moscardo of Sporting Braga.
83
Update Update
Rodrigo Zalazar from Sporting Braga wins a free kick on the right wing.
83
Update Update
Foul committed by David Sousa of Casa Pia.
77
Corner Corner
Sporting Braga wins a corner after Patrick Sequeira concedes.
75
Corner Corner
Pedro Rosas from Casa Pia misses a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, just missing the top right corner. Rafael Brito provided the assist.
74
Update Update
Foul by Rodrigo Zalazar of Sporting Braga.
74
Update Update
Patrick Sequeira from Casa Pia wins a free kick in the defensive half.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Braga: Fran Navarro comes on for João Moutinho.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Casa Pia: Rafael Brito comes on for Iyad Mohamed.
71
Update Update
Seba Pérez comes on for Lawrence Ofori at Casa Pia.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Casa Pia after Lukás Hornícek concedes a foul.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Casa Pia after Lukás Hornícek concedes.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Casa Pia after Lukás Hornícek concedes.
68
Attempt Attempt
Ricardo Horta from Sporting Braga misses a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending it just to the right. Gabriel Moscardo provided the assist.
67
Update Update
Jérémy Livolant of Casa Pia is caught offside.
66
Attempt Attempt
Lawrence Ofori's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Casa Pia after João Moutinho concedes.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Braga: Leonardo Lelo comes on for Gabri Martínez due to an injury.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lukás Hornícek from Sporting Braga receives a yellow card.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Braga: Rodrigo Zalazar comes on for Pau Víctor.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Casa Pia: Korede Osundina comes on for Dailon Livramento.
60
Attempt Attempt
David Sousa from Casa Pia misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
60
Update Update
The match is currently delayed due to an injury to Gabri Martínez from Sporting Braga.
55
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Rosas from Casa Pia has a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Jérémy Livolant.
53
Attempt Attempt
Gabri Martínez's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
53
Update Update
Foul by Gustaf Lagerbielke of Sporting Braga.
53
Update Update
Dailon Livramento from Casa Pia wins a free kick in the defensive half.
52
Update Update
Foul committed by Pau Víctor of Sporting Braga.
52
Update Update
David Sousa from Casa Pia wins a free kick in the defensive half.
51
Corner Corner
Gabri Martínez from Sporting Braga misses a right-footed shot from the center of the box, sending it to the right after a corner.
51
Update Update
Foul by Gustaf Lagerbielke of Sporting Braga.
51
Update Update
Cassiano from Casa Pia wins a free kick in the defensive half.
50
Corner Corner
Sporting Braga wins a corner after Lawrence Ofori concedes.
48
Attempt Attempt
Iyad Mohamed from Casa Pia misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box, sending it too high after a set piece situation.
47
Update Update
Jérémy Livolant from Casa Pia wins a free kick in the attacking half.
47
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
João Moutinho from Sporting Braga receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
47
Update Update
Foul by João Moutinho for Sporting Braga.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Casa Pia after Gustaf Lagerbielke concedes.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pau Víctor from Sporting Braga receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Casa Pia trailing Sporting Braga 1-0.
45
Attempt Attempt
Clau Mendes from Casa Pia misses a right-footed shot from very close range, sending the ball to the right. Gaizka Larrazabal provided the assist.
45
Update Update
André Geraldes from Casa Pia wins a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Casa Pia: Cassiano comes on for Clau Mendes.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
André Geraldes from Casa Pia receives a yellow card.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with Casa Pia trailing Sporting Braga 1-0.
43
Corner Corner
Sporting Braga wins a corner after João Goulart concedes.
41
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Víctor Gómez from Sporting Braga takes a right-footed shot from outside the box.
40
Update Update
Foul by Gabriel Moscardo of Sporting Braga.
40
Update Update
Foul committed by Gabriel Moscardo of Sporting Braga.
37
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sporting Braga takes the lead 1-0 against Casa Pia. Pau Víctor scores with a header from the right side of the six-yard box, assisted by Demir Ege Tiknaz's headed pass after a corner.
36
Corner Corner
Sporting Braga wins a corner after André Geraldes concedes.
33
Update Update
Ricardo Horta from Sporting Braga wins a free kick in the defensive half.
33
Update Update
Ricardo Horta from Sporting Braga wins a free kick on the right wing.
32
Update Update
Foul committed by Paulo Oliveira of Sporting Braga.
32
Update Update
Patrick Sequeira from Casa Pia wins a free kick in the defensive half.
31
Corner Corner
Sporting Braga wins a corner after Gaizka Larrazabal concedes.
26
Update Update
Jean-Baptiste Gorby of Sporting Braga wins a free kick in the attacking half.
26
Update Update
Foul committed by Iyad Mohamed of Casa Pia.
26
Update Update
Clau Mendes of Casa Pia is caught offside.
26
Attempt Attempt
Pau Víctor's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Jean-Baptiste Gorby.
25
Attempt Attempt
Demir Ege Tiknaz's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the center of the goal by Patrick Sequeira. The attempt was assisted by João Moutinho.
23
Update Update
Pau Víctor from Sporting Braga wins a free kick in the attacking half.
23
Update Update
Foul committed by David Sousa of Casa Pia.
18
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
David Sousa from Casa Pia receives a yellow card.
17
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Pedro Rosas from Casa Pia.
16
Update Update
Paulo Oliveira from Sporting Braga is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
16
Update Update
Foul committed by Clau Mendes of Casa Pia.
12
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Ricardo Horta from Sporting Braga takes a right-footed shot from outside the box.
8
Update Update
Pau Víctor from Sporting Braga is caught offside.
3
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Pedro Rosas from Casa Pia.

CONCLUSION

Sporting Braga's 0-1 win at Casa Pia exemplified their dominance, converting 69% possession into a clean-sheet victory with a first-half goal. As the stronger team, they faced no red card interruptions or event-driven shifts, delivering a result with minimal deviation. Casa Pia's 31% possession highlighted their struggle against Braga's pressure, yet the scoreline reflected expected efficiency. This outcome reinforces Braga's consistency, providing a solid platform for future fixtures while exposing Casa Pia's need for improved chance creation.

Casa Pia vs Sporting Braga preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Liga Portugal, Portugal View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Jesper GK

Jesper GK contributes football previews covering key fixtures, league context, team news, and matchday talking points.