Carrarese vs Spezia Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

Stadio dei Marmi Mon, 6 Apr - 5:30 PM

Serie B

Carrarese CAR

Spezia SPE

Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 5:30 PM

Round 33 Regular Season

Fabio Abiuso - 63'

Mattia Finotto - 23'

Nicolò Calabrese - 17'

Mattia Valoti - 49'

Niccolò Belloni 90'

Mattia Valoti 85'

Emanuele Adamo 90'

Giovanni Bonfanti 90+2'

CONTEXT

The match has officially concluded with Carrarese securing a 3-1 victory over Spezia, comfortably building on their 2-0 halftime lead. Pre-match market probabilities favored the home side at 40.8%, compared to a 31% chance of a draw and 28.2% for an away win. The final outcome aligned with this pre-match market, confirming Carrarese as the stronger team, though it represented a significant deviation level of 59.2% in their favor. Ball possession was perfectly balanced throughout the contest, with both Carrarese and Spezia holding exactly 50% of the ball. While expected goals (xG) data is unavailable to measure whether the scoreline directly matched underlying chance creation, the overarching efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match projections. The defining characteristic of this fixture was a chaotic disciplinary record that severely impacted the flow of play. The match featured a staggering four sendings-off; Carrarese received one red card, while Spezia was heavily penalized with three. This severe lack of discipline caused major red card distortion during the second half, effectively destroying any chance of an away comeback and cementing Carrarese's dominant victory.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Carrarese showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

G. Manganiello

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Galipò

4th Official

F. Fontani

1st Assistant

F. Cortese

2nd Assistant

A. Calabro

L. D'Angelo

1.16

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.08

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

1 - 0 - 2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Carrarese

40.78%

Draw

31.01%

Spezia

28.22%

Team Power Ranking

55.64

50.57

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Carrarese

Spezia

Power Score

55.64

50.57

League Position

Global Rank

604

734

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Carrarese — Opponent-weighted form score

Spezia — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Carrarese Spezia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Carrarese

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Spezia

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Carrarese ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Spezia

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

27.10

36.80

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

36.80

27.10

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Carrarese -0.92 Efficiency Index

Spezia +0.92 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Carrarese

Spezia

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Carrarese ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Spezia

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Carrarese Spezia

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Carrarese Spezia

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Carrarese

Spezia

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Carrarese

Spezia

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Carrarese Spezia

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Carrarese Spezia

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Carrarese

Spezia

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Carrarese CAR Home

3 matches

Spezia SPE Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-4

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:05:20+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2

Match Formation 3-5-1-1

1 M. Bleve

37 N. Calabrese

6 F. Oliana

26 F. Ruggeri

72 S. Zanon

77 G. Parlanti

17 E. Zuelli

70 L. Hasa

73 J. Rouhi

9 F. Abiuso

32 M. Finotto

22 B. Radunović

94 G. Bonfanti

55 P. Hristov

37 A. Matějů

31 G. Aurelio

25 F. Bandinelli

60 A. Romano

32 L. Vignali

17 L. Sernicola

5 M. Valoti

9 G. Artistico

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 06, 2026, 05:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadio dei Marmi

Capacity :

5000

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Simone Galipò

Gianluca Manganiello

Federico Fontani

Francesco Cortese

Statistics

Possession

CAR

47%

SPE

53%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1

5 Big Chances Created 2

12 Shots 16

31 Dangerous attacks 48

50 Possession 50

2 Corners 5

22 Free kicks 12

1 Yellow Cards 4

1 Red Cards 3

Match Overview

8 Goal Kicks 7

13 Throwins 22

11 Dribble Attempts 17

3 Successful Dribbles 13

27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 76

3 Assists 1

1 Penalties 0

81 Ball Safe 54

10 Goal Attempts 10

2 Injuries 0

5 Substitutions 5

1 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

67 Attacks 126

3 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

79 Successful Passes Percentage 79

55 Long Passes 62

11 Key Passes 12

350 Passes 339

278 Successful Passes 269

49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50

27 Successful Long Passes 31

Defensive

3 Saves 1

4 Interceptions 7

5 Tackles 14

51 Duels Won 59

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 30

9 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

12 Fouls 23

5 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Gianluca Manganiello

Manager ▼

A. Calabro Coach

Starting XI ▼

Marco Bleve Goalkeeper

Filippo Oliana Defender

Fabio Andrea Ruggeri Defender

Nicolò Calabrese Defender

Emanuele Zuelli Midfielder

Luis Hasa Midfielder

Nicolás Schiavi

Midfielder79'

Simone Zanon Midfielder

Devid Eugene Bouah

Midfielder85'

Jonas Rouhi Midfielder

Niccolò Belloni

Midfielder70'

Gabriele Parlanti Midfielder

Fabio Abiuso Attacker

Tommaso Rubino

Attacker85'

Mattia Finotto Attacker

Filippo Distefano

Attacker70'

Substitutes ▼

Niccolò Belloni

Midfielder70'

Filippo Distefano

Attacker70'

Nicolás Schiavi

Midfielder79'

Tommaso Rubino

Attacker85'

Devid Eugene Bouah

Midfielder85'

Bench ▼

Giovanni Garofani Goalkeeper

Vincenzo Fiorillo Goalkeeper

Filippo Melegoni Midfielder

Antonio Troise Midfielder

Dachi Lordkipanidze Midfielder

Nikola Sekulov Attacker

Ernesto Torregrossa Attacker

Referee : Gianluca Manganiello