Carrarese vs Sampdoria Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio dei Marmi Wed, 18 Mar - 7:00 PM
Serie B
Carrarese CAR
2 Winner 0
Sampdoria SAM
Full Time Wed, 18 Mar 7:00 PM
Mattia Finotto - 90+5' (P)
Luis Hasa - 63'
Goal
|
|
Second yellow card Salvatore Esposito 84'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Carrarese 2–0 Sampdoria. The result saw Carrarese take the points. Carrarese showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 48%–52%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Carrarese showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
  • Market: Carrarese 37.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 32.4% (Δ+0%) | Sampdoria 30% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Carrarese A. Calabro
A. Calabro
VS
Sampdoria Attilio Lombardo
Attilio Lombardo
1.08
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.2
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Catanzaro Rank: 60 D
Mantova Rank: 49 D
Monza Rank: 65 L
Modena Rank: 58 L
Calcio Padova Rank: 48 L
Südtirol Rank: 55 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Juve Stabia Rank: 56 D
Bari 1908 Rank: 49 L
Mantova Rank: 52 L
Calcio Padova Rank: 48 W
Palermo Rank: 62 D
Modena Rank: 58 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Carrarese
37.66%
Draw
32.38%
Away Sampdoria
29.96%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52.74
49.92
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Carrarese
Sampdoria
Power Score
52.74
49.92
League Position
11
15
Global Rank
654
733

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Carrarese — Opponent-weighted form score
Sampdoria — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Carrarese Sampdoria

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Carrarese

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sampdoria

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Carrarese ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sampdoria
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.96
16.63
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.63
18.96
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Carrarese +0.22 Efficiency Index
vs
Sampdoria -0.22 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Carrarese
Sampdoria
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Carrarese ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sampdoria
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Carrarese Sampdoria
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Carrarese Sampdoria
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Carrarese
Sampdoria
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Carrarese CAR Home
3 matches
Sampdoria SAM Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
4
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-19T00:05:03+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Bleve
Italy
1 M. Bleve
N. Calabrese
Italy
37 N. Calabrese
J. Illanes Minucci
Argentina
4 J. Illanes Minucci
M. Imperiale
Italy
3 M. Imperiale
S. Zanon
Italy
72 S. Zanon
G. Parlanti
Substitution
Italy
77 G. Parlanti
E. Zuelli
Italy
17 E. Zuelli
L. Hasa
Substitution
Italy
70 L. Hasa
N. Belloni
Substitution
Italy
7 N. Belloni
F. Abiuso
Substitution
Italy
9 F. Abiuso
E. Torregrossa
Substitution
Venezuela
92 E. Torregrossa
Pitch
T. Martinelli
Italy
50 T. Martinelli
M. Viti
Italy
2 M. Viti
A. Ferrari
Italy
25 A. Ferrari
M. Palma
Substitution
Italy
13 M. Palma
M. Cicconi
Italy
7 M. Cicconi
S. Esposito
Italy
94 S. Esposito
F. Conti
Substitution
Italy
33 F. Conti
A. Di Pardo
Italy
29 A. Di Pardo
L. Cherubini
Substitution
Italy
10 L. Cherubini
T. Begić
Substitution
Slovenia
11 T. Begić
E. Soleri
Substitution
Italy
92 E. Soleri

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 18, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium :
Stadio dei Marmi
Capacity :
5000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ , Clear
Referees :
Rosario Abisso

Statistics

Possession
CAR
49%
SAM
51%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
1 Shots 0
42 Dangerous attacks 33
48 Possession 52
4 Corners 2
17 Free kicks 16
1 Yellow Cards 4
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 7
7 Goal Attempts 8
13 Dribble Attempts 10
67 Ball Safe 75
16 Throwins 31
1 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 5
6 Successful Dribbles 5
46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
1 Assists 0
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

108 Attacks 81
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

359 Passes 389
56 Long Passes 49
79 Successful Passes Percentage 80
285 Successful Passes 312
3 Key Passes 6
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
27 Successful Long Passes 22

Defensive

7 Interceptions 4
8 Tackles 17
1 Saves 2

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 14
1 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

14 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Rosario Abisso

Starting XI ▼

1
Marco Bleve
Marco Bleve Goalkeeper
3
Marco Imperiale
Marco Imperiale Defender
4
Julián Illanes
Julián Illanes Defender
37
Nicolò Calabrese
Nicolò Calabrese Defender
7
Niccolò Belloni
Niccolò Belloni Midfielder
73
Jonas Rouhi
Jonas Rouhi
Defender62'
17
Emanuele Zuelli
Emanuele Zuelli Midfielder
70
Luis Hasa
Luis Hasa Midfielder
8
Filippo Melegoni
Filippo Melegoni
Midfielder80'
72
Simone Zanon
Simone Zanon Midfielder
77
Gabriele Parlanti
Gabriele Parlanti Midfielder
25
Dachi Lordkipanidze
Dachi Lordkipanidze
Midfielder88'
9
Fabio Abiuso
Fabio Abiuso Attacker
32
Mattia Finotto
Mattia Finotto
Attacker80'
92
Ernesto Torregrossa
Ernesto Torregrossa Attacker
21
Tommaso Rubino
Tommaso Rubino
Attacker62'
Referee : Rosario Abisso

Starting XI ▼

50
Tommaso Martinelli
Tommaso Martinelli Goalkeeper
2
Mattia Viti
Mattia Viti Defender
13
Matteo Palma
Matteo Palma Defender
99
Matteo Luigi Brunori
Matteo Luigi Brunori
Attacker77'
25
Alex Ferrari
Alex Ferrari Defender
7
Manuel Cicconi
Manuel Cicconi Midfielder
29
Alessandro Di Pardo
Alessandro Di Pardo Midfielder
33
Francesco Conti
Francesco Conti Midfielder
72
Antonín Barák
Antonín Barák
Midfielder77'
94
Salvatore Esposito
Salvatore Esposito Midfielder
10
Luigi Cherubini
Luigi Cherubini Attacker
20
Simone Pafundi
Simone Pafundi
Midfielder65'
11
Tjas Begic
Tjas Begic Attacker
77
Nicholas Pierini
Nicholas Pierini
Attacker57'
92
Edoardo Soleri
Edoardo Soleri Attacker
9
Massimo Coda
Massimo Coda
Attacker57'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mattia Finotto
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
90+5'
90+2'
Event
Simone Pafundi
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Dachi Lordkipanidze → Gabriele Parlanti
10th Substitution
88'
84'
Event
Salvatore Esposito
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Mattia Finotto → Fabio Abiuso
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Filippo Melegoni → Luis Hasa
9th Substitution
80'
77'
Event
Antonín Barák → Francesco Conti
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Matteo Luigi Brunori → Matteo Palma
7th Substitution
Event
Tommaso Rubino
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
67'
67'
Event
Salvatore Esposito
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
65'
Event
Simone Pafundi → Luigi Cherubini
5th Substitution
Event
Luis Hasa
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
63'
Event
Jonas Rouhi → Niccolò Belloni
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Tommaso Rubino → Ernesto Torregrossa
4th Substitution
62'
57'
Event
Nicholas Pierini → Tjas Begic
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Massimo Coda → Edoardo Soleri
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Matteo Palma
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Fabio Abiuso
Goal disallowed
7'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Carrarese exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Carrarese vs Sampdoria preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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