Calcio Padova vs Reggiana Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale Euganeo Sun, 19 Apr - 3:15 PM
Serie B
Calcio Padova PAD
1 Winner 0
Reggiana Reggiana
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 3:15 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Alessandro Seghetti - 80'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Calcio Padova claimed a 1-0 home victory over Reggiana in a Serie C encounter characterized by controlled possession and a late breakthrough. The first half finished 0-0, with Padova enjoying 56% possession but failing to convert pressure into goals, while Reggiana managed 44% and offered limited threats. The second half mirrored the pattern until Padova's decisive strike secured the points. No red cards disrupted play, and no notable tactical adjustments were observed. Identified as the stronger team pre-match, Padova's result marked a significant 95.5% structural deviation in their favor, diverging from expectations where Reggiana appeared marginally preferred. Efficiency metrics aligned with projections, though xG data absence limits deeper chance quality insights. Possession dominance underscored Padova's structural edge, enabling a clean sheet and minimal concession risks.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Calcio Padova's win exhibited a significant 95.5% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevents assessment of outcome consistency with expected goals.
  • Market alignment: Result did not align with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating any distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

Giuseppe Mucera

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Catallo

1st Assistant

A. Zanotti

4th Official

M. Pressato

2nd Assistant

Calcio Padova R. Breda
R. Breda
VS
Reggiana P. Bisoli
P. Bisoli
1.07
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.81
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Empoli Rank: W
Frosinone Rank: L
Palermo Rank: L
Venezia Rank: L
Catanzaro Rank: L
Avellino Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Carrarese Rank: W
Pescara Rank: L
Virtus Entella Rank: L
Monza Rank: D
Bari 1908 Rank: L
Venezia Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Calcio Padova
4.47%
Draw
91.93%
Away Reggiana
3.61%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
16.96
15.92
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Calcio Padova
Reggiana
Power Score
16.96
15.92
League Position
13
20
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Calcio Padova — Opponent-weighted form score
Reggiana — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Calcio Padova Reggiana

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Calcio Padova

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Reggiana

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Calcio Padova ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Reggiana
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.96
32.05
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.05
21.96
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Calcio Padova -0.96 Efficiency Index
vs
Reggiana +0.96 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Calcio Padova
Reggiana
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Calcio Padova ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Reggiana
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Calcio Padova Reggiana
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Calcio Padova Reggiana
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Calcio Padova
Reggiana
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Calcio Padova
vs
Reggiana
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Calcio Padova Reggiana
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Calcio Padova 0.22
Reggiana 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Calcio Padova Reggiana
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Calcio Padova 0.00
Reggiana 0.02
Calcio Padova
Reggiana
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Reggiana had peak pressure around 7'.
  • Reggiana started the game with stronger pressure.
PAD Pressure Reggiana Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Reggiana reached the top pressure at 7' (74.45).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Calcio Padova PAD Home
1 matches
Reggiana Reggiana Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
2
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:04:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Pitch
A. Sorrentino
Italy
22 A. Sorrentino
C. Faedo
Italy
72 C. Faedo
L. Villa
Italy
55 L. Villa
C. Pastina
Italy
58 C. Pastina
A. Capelli
Italy
17 A. Capelli
P. Fusi
Substitution
Italy
8 P. Fusi
L. Crisetig
Italy
6 L. Crisetig
K. Varas Marcillo
Substitution
Ecuador
7 K. Varas Marcillo
G. Favale
Italy
30 G. Favale
M. Bortolussi
Substitution
Italy
20 M. Bortolussi
F. Di Mariano
Substitution
Italy
77 F. Di Mariano
Pitch
A. Micai
Italy
1 A. Micai
S. Bonetti
Substitution
Italy
43 S. Bonetti
M. Vanelli Lusuardi
Brazil
47 M. Vanelli Lusuardi
F. Vicari
Italy
34 F. Vicari
L. Libutti
Italy
17 L. Libutti
K. Bozhanaj
Substitution
Albania
10 K. Bozhanaj
T. Reinhart
Argentina
16 T. Reinhart
M. Bertagnoli
Substitution
Italy
26 M. Bertagnoli
M. Portanova
Italy
90 M. Portanova
M. Lambourde
Substitution
France
93 M. Lambourde
C. Gondo
Substitution
Ivory Coast
11 C. Gondo

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 19, 2026, 03:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Comunale Euganeo
Capacity :
32420
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ivan Catallo
Andrea Zanotti
Giuseppe Mucera
Matteo Pressato

Statistics

Possession
PAD
55%
Reggiana
45%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 3
46 Dangerous attacks 42
56 Possession 44
5 Corners 2
19 Free kicks 16
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

1 Assists 0
79 Ball Safe 72
6 Goal Attempts 10
0 Injuries 1
4 Substitutions 5
21 Throwins 23
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 41
5 Successful Dribbles 7
7 Goal Kicks 9
15 Dribble Attempts 17

Attacking

124 Attacks 82
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
7 Key Passes 7
438 Passes 333
353 Successful Passes 245
66 Long Passes 61
24 Successful Long Passes 24
81 Successful Passes Percentage 74

Defensive

3 Saves 1
12 Interceptions 8
25 Tackles 17
60 Duels Won 53

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 4
20 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
16 Fouls 19

Lineup

Referee : Giuseppe Mucera

Starting XI ▼

22
Alessandro Sorrentino
Alessandro Sorrentino Goalkeeper
7
55
Lorenzo Villa
Lorenzo Villa Defender
6.64
58
Christian Pastina
Christian Pastina Defender
6.82
72
Carlo Faedo
Carlo Faedo Defender
6.81
6
Lorenzo Crisetig
Lorenzo Crisetig Midfielder
6.75
7
Kevin Varas
Kevin Varas Midfielder
6.86
41
Jonathan Silva
Jonathan Silva
Midfielder77'
6.54
8
Pietro Fusi
Pietro Fusi Midfielder
6.78
23
Luca Di Maggio
Luca Di Maggio
Midfielder68'
6.58
17
Alessandro Capelli
Alessandro Capelli Midfielder
6.9
30
Giulio Favale
Giulio Favale Midfielder
6.5
20
Mattia Bortolussi
Mattia Bortolussi Attacker
7.06
11
Alessandro Seghetti
Alessandro Seghetti
Attacker77'
6.54
77
Francesco Di Mariano
Francesco Di Mariano Attacker
6.99
24
Gianluca Caprari
Gianluca Caprari
Attacker68'
6.73
Referee : Giuseppe Mucera

Starting XI ▼

1
Alessandro Micai
Alessandro Micai Goalkeeper
6.85
17
Lorenzo Libutti
Lorenzo Libutti Defender
6.55
34
Francesco Vicari
Francesco Vicari Defender
6.67
43
Simone Bonetti
Simone Bonetti Defender
6.47
33
Alessandro Tripaldelli
Alessandro Tripaldelli
Defender56'
6.57
47
Mateus Lusuardi
Mateus Lusuardi Defender
6.7
10
Kleis Bozhanaj
Kleis Bozhanaj Midfielder
6.6
23
Matteo Rover
Matteo Rover
Attacker46'
6.6
16
Tobías Reinhart
Tobías Reinhart Midfielder
7.03
26
Massimo Bertagnoli
Massimo Bertagnoli Midfielder
6.74
8
Charlys
Charlys
Midfielder81'
6.76
90
Manolo Portanova
Manolo Portanova Midfielder
6.91
93
Mathis Lambourde
Mathis Lambourde Midfielder
6.62
77
Tommaso Fumagalli
Tommaso Fumagalli
Attacker81'
6.83
11
Cedric Gondo
Cedric Gondo Attacker
6.84
9
Andrija Novakovich
Andrija Novakovich
Attacker73'
6.66

Events

2ND-HALF
81'
Event
Tommaso Fumagalli → Mathis Lambourde
9th Substitution
81'
Event
Charlys → Massimo Bertagnoli
8th Substitution
Event
Alessandro Seghetti
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
80'
Event
Jonathan Silva → Kevin Varas
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Alessandro Seghetti → Mattia Bortolussi
6th Substitution
77'
73'
Event
Andrija Novakovich → Cedric Gondo
5th Substitution
Event
Gianluca Caprari → Francesco Di Mariano
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Luca Di Maggio → Pietro Fusi
4th Substitution
68'
56'
Event
Alessandro Tripaldelli → Simone Bonetti
2nd Substitution
50'
Event
Simone Bonetti
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Matteo Rover → Kleis Bozhanaj
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
24'
Event
Tobías Reinhart
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Calcio Padova exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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