Calcio Padova vs Pescara Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale Euganeo Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Calcio Padova PAD
1 Winner 0
Pescara PES
Full Time Fri, 1 May 1:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
Christian Pastina - 90+4'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Calcio Padova clinched a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Pescara in a tense Serie C clash, defying expectations with sheer resilience. Despite Pescara controlling 63% of possession and pushing forward relentlessly, Padova's backline stood unbreached, keeping the halftime score at 0-0. The Biancoscudati struck decisively in the second half, capitalizing on a rare counter to secure the points. Labeled the stronger side pre-match, Padova delivered a performance that highlighted their tactical nous and efficiency under duress. Pescara's dominance in ball control failed to translate into clear chances, underscoring Padova's defensive mastery. This outcome represents a significant structural deviation from pre-match assessments, where Pescara held a slight edge in projections. With no red cards or disruptive events, the match unfolded as a pure test of endurance and opportunism, affirming Padova's credentials in the promotion hunt.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Calcio Padova's 1-0 win showed a 67.3% significant deviation favoring the home team.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented assessment of outcome alignment.
  • Market alignment: The result did not align with pre-market projections.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to absent metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from disciplinary measures.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

G. Collu

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Massari

4th Official

G. Grasso

2nd Assistant

L. Giuggioli

1st Assistant

Calcio Padova R. Breda
R. Breda
VS
Pescara G. Gorgone
G. Gorgone
1.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Virtus Entella Rank: 48 L
Reggiana Rank: 47 W
Empoli Rank: 55 W
Frosinone Rank: 68 L
Palermo Rank: 65 L
Venezia Rank: 70 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Juve Stabia Rank: 56 D
Carrarese Rank: 54 D
Sampdoria Rank: 52 L
Reggiana Rank: 47 W
Empoli Rank: 55 L
Virtus Entella Rank: 48 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 2 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Calcio Padova
32.68%
Draw
28.02%
Away Pescara
39.3%

Movement

Changes since opening
Calcio Padova
-60.71%
Draw
+21.61%
Pescara
+39.11%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
48.73
47.45
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Calcio Padova
Pescara
Power Score
48.73
47.45
League Position
13
18
Global Rank
784
834

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Calcio Padova — Opponent-weighted form score
Pescara — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Calcio Padova Pescara

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Calcio Padova

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Pescara

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Calcio Padova ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pescara
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.27
19.44
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.44
35.27
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Calcio Padova +1.51 Efficiency Index
vs
Pescara -1.51 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Calcio Padova
Pescara
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Calcio Padova ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pescara
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Calcio Padova Pescara
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Calcio Padova Pescara
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Calcio Padova
Pescara
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Calcio Padova
vs
Pescara
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Calcio Padova Pescara
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Calcio Padova 0.27
Pescara 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Calcio Padova Pescara
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Calcio Padova 0.00
Pescara 0.02
Calcio Padova
Pescara
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PES had peak pressure around 74'.
  • PES started the game with stronger pressure.
PAD Pressure PES Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PES reached the top pressure at 74' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Calcio Padova PAD Home
9 matches
Pescara PES Away
Match Record
4
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
4
Goals
11
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
11
-3
Goal Difference
+3

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T00:02:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Pitch
A. Sorrentino
Italy
22 A. Sorrentino
F. Belli
Italy
4 F. Belli
L. Villa
Italy
55 L. Villa
C. Pastina
Italy
58 C. Pastina
A. Capelli
Substitution
Italy
17 A. Capelli
P. Fusi
Substitution
Italy
8 P. Fusi
L. Crisetig
Italy
6 L. Crisetig
K. Varas Marcillo
Ecuador
7 K. Varas Marcillo
G. Favale
Substitution
Italy
30 G. Favale
M. Bortolussi
Substitution
Italy
20 M. Bortolussi
G. Caprari
Substitution
Italy
24 G. Caprari
Pitch
I. Saio
Italy
22 I. Saio
A. Cagnano
Italy
32 A. Cagnano
D. Bettella
Italy
6 D. Bettella
R. Capellini
Italy
2 R. Capellini
G. Letizia
Italy
3 G. Letizia
L. Valzania
Substitution
Italy
14 L. Valzania
G. Brugman
Uruguay
8 G. Brugman
L. Dabo
Substitution
Spain
18 L. Dabo
L. Insigne
Italy
11 L. Insigne
L. Meacci
Substitution
Italy
7 L. Meacci
A. Di Nardo
Substitution
Italy
9 A. Di Nardo

General Information

Date & Time :
May 01, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Comunale Euganeo
Capacity :
32420
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Giovanni Francesco Massari
Gianluca Grasso
Lorenzo Giuggioli
Giuseppe Collu

Statistics

Possession
PAD
42%
PES
58%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
0 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 5
41 Dangerous attacks 45
37 Possession 63
3 Corners 6
14 Free kicks 20
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4
7 Successful Dribbles 6
10 Dribble Attempts 17
9 Goal Kicks 7
15 Throwins 23
70 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35
72 Ball Safe 77
6 Goal Attempts 6
0 Hit Woodwork 1
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

78 Attacks 92
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

276 Passes 479
31 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53
70 Successful Passes Percentage 83
193 Successful Passes 397
15 Successful Long Passes 35
8 Key Passes 9
49 Long Passes 66

Defensive

25 Tackles 6
5 Saves 4
12 Interceptions 12
61 Duels Won 43

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 13
1 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

21 Fouls 14
5 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Giuseppe Collu

Starting XI ▼

22
Alessandro Sorrentino
Alessandro Sorrentino Goalkeeper
7.01
4
Francesco Belli
Francesco Belli Defender
6.68
55
Lorenzo Villa
Lorenzo Villa Defender
6.67
58
Christian Pastina
Christian Pastina Defender
6.87
6
Lorenzo Crisetig
Lorenzo Crisetig Midfielder
6.75
7
Kevin Varas
Kevin Varas Midfielder
6.85
8
Pietro Fusi
Pietro Fusi Midfielder
6.77
23
Luca Di Maggio
Luca Di Maggio
Midfielder66'
6.58
17
Alessandro Capelli
Alessandro Capelli Midfielder
6.91
18
Paolo Ghiglione
Paolo Ghiglione
Defender83'
6.55
30
Giulio Favale
Giulio Favale Midfielder
6.53
41
Jonathan Silva
Jonathan Silva
Midfielder83'
6.56
20
Mattia Bortolussi
Mattia Bortolussi Attacker
7.04
77
Francesco Di Mariano
Francesco Di Mariano
Attacker74'
6.99
24
Gianluca Caprari
Gianluca Caprari Attacker
6.73
11
Alessandro Seghetti
Alessandro Seghetti
Attacker65'
6.57
Referee : Giuseppe Collu

Starting XI ▼

22
Ivan Saio
Ivan Saio Goalkeeper
6.9
2
Riccardo Capellini
Riccardo Capellini Defender
6.69
3
Gaetano Letizia
Gaetano Letizia Defender
7.02
6
Davide Bettella
Davide Bettella Defender
6.65
32
Andrea Cagnano
Andrea Cagnano Defender
6.59
7
Lorenzo Meazzi
Lorenzo Meazzi Midfielder
6.82
27
Giacomo Olzer
Giacomo Olzer
Midfielder55'
6.9
8
Gastón Brugman
Gastón Brugman Midfielder
6.94
11
Lorenzo Insigne
Lorenzo Insigne Midfielder
7.51
14
Luca Valzania
Luca Valzania Midfielder
6.82
10
Davide Merola
Davide Merola
Attacker88'
6.67
18
Lamine Dabo
Lamine Dabo Midfielder
6.56
21
Fabrizio Caligara
Fabrizio Caligara
Midfielder55'
6.87
9
Antonio Di Nardo
Antonio Di Nardo Attacker
6.95
31
Flavio Russo
Flavio Russo
Attacker21'
6.43

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Davide Merola
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Christian Pastina
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
90+4'
90'
Event
Lorenzo Insigne
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Davide Merola → Luca Valzania
9th Substitution
Event
Paolo Ghiglione → Alessandro Capelli
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Jonathan Silva → Giulio Favale
8th Substitution
83'
80'
Event
Flavio Russo
GoalkeeperSave
Event
Lorenzo Villa
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
79'
78'
Event
Mattia Bortolussi
Penalty awarded
Event
Francesco Di Mariano → Mattia Bortolussi
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Luca Di Maggio → Pietro Fusi
5th Substitution
66'
Event
Alessandro Seghetti → Gianluca Caprari
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Francesco Belli
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
63'
55'
Event
Giacomo Olzer → Lorenzo Meazzi
3rd Substitution
55'
Event
Fabrizio Caligara → Lamine Dabo
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Pietro Fusi
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45+2'
42'
Event
Andrea Cagnano
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
21'
Event
Flavio Russo → Antonio Di Nardo
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Silva's left-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Christian Pastina scores with a left-footed shot.
88
Update Update
Davide Merola comes on for Luca Valzania.
86
Attempt Attempt
Giacomo Olzer's left-footed shot is saved.
85
Attempt Attempt
Lorenzo Insigne takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
83
Update Update
Paolo Ghiglione replaces Alessandro Capelli.
83
Update Update
Jonathan Silva is on, and Giulio Favale is off.
80
Attempt Attempt
Flavio Russo's right-footed shot is saved.
80
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved! Flavio Russo's attempt is stopped.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lorenzo Villa receives a yellow card.
74
Update Update
Francesco Di Mariano replaces Mattia Bortolussi.
71
Attempt Attempt
Giacomo Olzer takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
69
Attempt Attempt
Gaston Brugman takes a right-footed shot but misses.
68
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Cagnano takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
66
Update Update
Luca Di Maggio comes on for Pietro Fusi.
65
Update Update
Alexander Seghetti replaces Gianluca Caprari.
64
Attempt Attempt
Gaetano Letizia takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
63
Attempt Attempt
Alessandro Capelli takes a left-footed shot but misses.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Francesco Belli receives a yellow card.
62
Attempt Attempt
Luca Valzania takes a right-footed shot but misses.
60
Attempt Attempt
Giacomo Olzer takes a shot with his head but misses.
59
Attempt Attempt
Alessandro Capelli takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
55
Update Update
Fabrizio Caligara is on, and Lamine Dabo is off.
55
Update Update
Giacomo Olzer is on, and Lorenzo Meazzi is off.
50
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Varas has a shot with his right foot, but it's blocked.
49
Attempt Attempt
Alessandro Capelli's left-footed shot is blocked.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pietro Fusi receives a yellow card.
26
Attempt Attempt
Luca Valzania takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
Update Update
Flavio Russo comes on for Nardo Di Antonio.
20
Attempt Attempt
Gianluca Caprari's left-footed shot is saved.
16
Attempt Attempt
Christian Pastina takes a left-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Gianluca Caprari's left-footed shot is blocked.
14
Update Update
The VAR review results in a disallowed goal due to offside.
13
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Varas takes a left-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Pietro Fusi's right-footed shot is saved.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Giuseppe Collu.

CONCLUSION

Calcio Padova's 1-0 triumph over Pescara serves as a statement of intent in Serie C, proving that quality trumps quantity in possession battles. Holding firm with just 37% of the ball, Padova's disciplined setup neutralized Pescara's pressure, striking at the perfect moment post-halftime stalemate. This significant deviation from expectations boosts Padova's momentum, validating their status as the stronger outfit. Pescara's inability to convert dominance into goals exposes vulnerabilities ahead. Without disruptions like red cards, the result purely reflects Padova's strategic edge and clinical edge, positioning them favorably in the standings while Pescara must regroup swiftly.

Calcio Padova vs Pescara preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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