Calcio Padova vs Empoli Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale Euganeo Sun, 12 Apr - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Calcio Padova PAD
1 Winner 0
Empoli EMP
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Mattia Bortolussi - 84'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match is finished with Calcio Padova defeating Empoli 1-0. The sides were level at 0-0 heading into the break, and the only goal arrived after the interval to give the home side all three points. Pre-match expectations pointed toward Empoli as the stronger team with a higher projected share of the outcome. Padova’s victory therefore counts as a significant deviation from those forecasts. The result did not align with the pre-match projection, though the efficiency shift stayed in line with overall game trends. No red cards were issued and no major disciplinary events altered the flow of play. Empoli controlled more of the ball with 56 percent possession to Padova’s 44 percent, yet the visitors were unable to convert that territorial edge into a goal. With no xG data available, it is not possible to determine how the outcome aligned on that metric. Padova showed clinical finishing on their limited opportunities to secure a result few anticipated.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Calcio Padova showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Perenzoni

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

Stefano Galimberti

1st Assistant

Marco Colaianni

2nd Assistant

D. Cerea

4th Official

Calcio Padova R. Breda
R. Breda
VS
Empoli F. Caserta
F. Caserta
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.04
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Frosinone Rank: L
Palermo Rank: L
Venezia Rank: L
Catanzaro Rank: L
Avellino Rank: L
Spezia Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sampdoria Rank: L
Pescara Rank: W
Spezia Rank: D
Mantova Rank: D
Catanzaro Rank: L
Bari 1908 Rank: L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 4 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Calcio Padova
31.42%
Draw
29.65%
Away Empoli
38.93%

Movement

Changes since opening
Calcio Padova
-63.81%
Draw
+25.07%
Empoli
+38.74%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
15.18
17.78
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Calcio Padova
Empoli
Power Score
15.18
17.78
League Position
14
15
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Calcio Padova — Opponent-weighted form score
Empoli — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Calcio Padova Empoli

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Calcio Padova

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Empoli

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Calcio Padova ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Empoli
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.61
23.13
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.13
42.61
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Calcio Padova +1.87 Efficiency Index
vs
Empoli -1.87 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Calcio Padova
Empoli
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Calcio Padova ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Empoli
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Calcio Padova Empoli
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Calcio Padova Empoli
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Calcio Padova
Empoli
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Calcio Padova
vs
Empoli
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Calcio Padova Empoli
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Calcio Padova 0.29
Empoli 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Calcio Padova Empoli
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Calcio Padova 0.00
Empoli 0.02
Calcio Padova
Empoli
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • EMP had peak pressure around 12'.
  • EMP started the game with stronger pressure.
PAD Pressure EMP Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: EMP reached the top pressure at 12' (98.03).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Calcio Padova PAD Home
11 matches
Empoli EMP Away
Match Record
2
Wins
5
4
Draws
4
5
Losses
2
Goals
16
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
16
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:04:41+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Sorrentino
Italy
22 A. Sorrentino
F. Sgarbi
Substitution
Italy
32 F. Sgarbi
M. Perrotta
Italy
5 M. Perrotta
C. Pastina
Italy
58 C. Pastina
A. Capelli
Substitution
Italy
17 A. Capelli
P. Fusi
Substitution
Italy
8 P. Fusi
L. Crisetig
Italy
6 L. Crisetig
K. Varas Marcillo
Ecuador
7 K. Varas Marcillo
G. Favale
Italy
30 G. Favale
M. Bortolussi
Italy
20 M. Bortolussi
F. Di Mariano
Substitution
Italy
77 F. Di Mariano
Pitch
A. Fulignati
Italy
21 A. Fulignati
B. Moruzzi
Substitution
Italy
27 B. Moruzzi
M. Lovato
Italy
20 M. Lovato
G. Guarino
Italy
34 G. Guarino
T. Ebuehi
Substitution
Nigeria
24 T. Ebuehi
G. Yepes Laut
Substitution
Spain
14 G. Yepes Laut
A. Ghion
Italy
18 A. Ghion
L. Magnino
Substitution
Italy
8 L. Magnino
S. Shpendi
Albania
11 S. Shpendi
A. Candela
Italy
26 A. Candela
B. Popov
Substitution
77 B. Popov

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 12, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Comunale Euganeo
Capacity :
32420
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Daniele Perenzoni
Stefano Galimberti
Marco Colaianni
Davide Cerea

Statistics

Possession
PAD
47%
EMP
53%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 4
6 Shots 6
55 Dangerous attacks 39
44 Possession 56
4 Corners 4
22 Free kicks 20
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 57
18 Throwins 14
7 Goal Kicks 7
13 Dribble Attempts 14
77 Ball Safe 91
10 Goal Attempts 7
0 Hit Woodwork 1
4 Substitutions 5
6 Successful Dribbles 8

Attacking

98 Attacks 89
3 Big Chances Missed 4

Possession

213 Successful Passes 299
302 Passes 392
27 Successful Long Passes 33
11 Key Passes 8
71 Successful Passes Percentage 76
67 Long Passes 67
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49

Defensive

15 Tackles 13
8 Interceptions 5
1 Saves 6

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 20
8 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

17 Fouls 23
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Daniele Perenzoni

Starting XI ▼

22
Alessandro Sorrentino
Alessandro Sorrentino Goalkeeper
5
Marco Perrotta
Marco Perrotta Defender
32
Filippo Sgarbi
Filippo Sgarbi Defender
72
Carlo Faedo
Carlo Faedo
Defender46'
58
Christian Pastina
Christian Pastina Defender
6
Lorenzo Crisetig
Lorenzo Crisetig Midfielder
7
Kevin Varas
Kevin Varas Midfielder
8
Pietro Fusi
Pietro Fusi Midfielder
23
Luca Di Maggio
Luca Di Maggio
Midfielder72'
17
Alessandro Capelli
Alessandro Capelli Midfielder
18
Paolo Ghiglione
Paolo Ghiglione
Defender72'
30
Giulio Favale
Giulio Favale Midfielder
20
Mattia Bortolussi
Mattia Bortolussi Attacker
77
Francesco Di Mariano
Francesco Di Mariano Attacker
24
Gianluca Caprari
Gianluca Caprari
Attacker64'
Referee : Daniele Perenzoni

Starting XI ▼

21
Andrea Fulignati
Andrea Fulignati Goalkeeper
20
Matteo Lovato
Matteo Lovato Defender
24
Tyronne Ebuehi
Tyronne Ebuehi Defender
7
Salvatore Elia
Salvatore Elia
Midfielder72'
27
Brando Moruzzi
Brando Moruzzi Defender
19
Marco Nasti
Marco Nasti
Attacker87'
34
Gabriele Guarino
Gabriele Guarino Defender
8
Luca Magnino
Luca Magnino Midfielder
5
Nosa Edward Obaretin
Nosa Edward Obaretin
Defender81'
11
Stiven Shpendi
Stiven Shpendi Midfielder
14
Gerard Yepes
Gerard Yepes Midfielder
32
Nicolas Haas
Nicolas Haas
Midfielder81'
18
Andrea Ghion
Andrea Ghion Midfielder
26
Antonio Candela
Antonio Candela Midfielder
77
Bogdan Popov
Bogdan Popov Attacker
17
Daniel Fila
Daniel Fila
Attacker72'

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Marco Nasti → Brando Moruzzi
9th Substitution
Event
Mattia Bortolussi
3rd Yellowcard
85'
Event
Mattia Bortolussi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
84'
81'
Event
Nicolas Haas → Gerard Yepes
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Nosa Edward Obaretin → Luca Magnino
8th Substitution
Event
Roberto Breda
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
73'
Event
Paolo Ghiglione → Alessandro Capelli
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Luca Di Maggio → Pietro Fusi
6th Substitution
72'
72'
Event
Salvatore Elia → Tyronne Ebuehi
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Daniel Fila → Bogdan Popov
4th Substitution
Event
Gianluca Caprari → Francesco Di Mariano
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Carlo Faedo
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
63'
Event
Carlo Faedo → Filippo Sgarbi
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
36'
Event
Gabriele Guarino
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Calcio Padova exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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