Calcio Padova vs Catanzaro Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

Stadio Comunale Euganeo Sat, 14 Mar - 2:00 PM

Serie B

Calcio Padova PAD

Catanzaro CAT

Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 2:00 PM

Luca Di Maggio - 90+2'

Pietro Iemmello - 90+4', 51'

Gabriele Alesi - 17'

CONTEXT

The match between Calcio Padova and Catanzaro has finished, with Catanzaro securing a 2-1 victory away from home. The visitors established their lead early, heading into the halftime break with a 1-0 advantage before ultimately seeing out the win in the second half. Catanzaro entered the contest as the stronger side, holding a 40.9% pre-match probability of winning compared to Calcio Padova's 29.3% chance and a 29.8% probability of a draw. The final result was fully aligned with these pre-match market expectations. However, the exact nature of the victory still represented a significant deviation for Catanzaro, pushing well past their baseline win probability. Despite being on the losing end, Calcio Padova actually controlled the majority of the ball, finishing with 54% possession against Catanzaro's 46%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the outcome was consistent with the raw quality of chances created. Nevertheless, the efficiency shift was perfectly in line with expectations, as the visitors made the most of their limited time on the ball. The match was cleanly contested with zero red cards issued, ensuring a straightforward tactical battle free of major disciplinary impacts.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Catanzaro showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

M. Ferrieri Caputi

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Garzelli

1st Assistant

S. Pistarelli

2nd Assistant

S. Gavini

4th Official

M. Andreoletti

A. Aquilani

1.32

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.72

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

1 - 0 - 0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Calcio Padova

29.32%

Draw

29.82%

Catanzaro

40.87%

Team Power Ranking

47.94

61.1

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Calcio Padova

Catanzaro

Power Score

47.94

61.1

League Position

Global Rank

777

423

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Calcio Padova — Opponent-weighted form score

Catanzaro — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Calcio Padova Catanzaro

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Calcio Padova

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Catanzaro

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Calcio Padova ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Catanzaro

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

28.61

32.50

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

32.50

28.61

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Calcio Padova -0.37 Efficiency Index

Catanzaro +0.37 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Calcio Padova

Catanzaro

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Calcio Padova ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Catanzaro

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Calcio Padova Catanzaro

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Calcio Padova Catanzaro

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Calcio Padova

Catanzaro

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Calcio Padova PAD Home

1 matches

Catanzaro CAT Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-1

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T00:53:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

22 A. Sorrentino

4 F. Belli

55 L. Villa

5 M. Perrotta

72 C. Faedo

17 A. Capelli

8 P. Fusi

7 (C) K. Varas Marcillo

77 F. Di Mariano

20 M. Bortolussi

24 G. Caprari

22 M. Pigliacelli

23 N. Brighenti

4 M. Antonini Lui

84 T. Cassandro

30 G. Alesi

20 S. Pontisso

10 J. Petriccione

27 C. Favasuli

9 (C) P. Iemmello

14 M. Liberali

8 F. Pittarello

General Information

Date & Time :

Mar 14, 2026, 02:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

Stadium :

Stadio Comunale Euganeo

Capacity :

32420

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Dario Garzelli

Simone Pistarelli

Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi

Simone Gavini

Statistics

Possession

PAD

53%

CAT

47%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3

1 Big Chances Created 4

13 Shots 13

49 Dangerous attacks 39

54 Possession 46

3 Corners 6

15 Free kicks 18

1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Successful Dribbles 4

5 Substitutions 5

11 Dribble Attempts 7

0 Assists 3

73 Ball Safe 69

18 Throwins 18

9 Goal Attempts 12

45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 57

6 Goal Kicks 12

Attacking

104 Attacks 71

1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

71 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50

9 Key Passes 9

86 Successful Passes Percentage 79

49 Long Passes 62

35 Successful Long Passes 31

414 Passes 362

354 Successful Passes 285

Defensive

9 Interceptions 11

2 Saves 0

18 Tackles 18

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 14

4 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

0 Offsides 1

18 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi

Manager ▼

M. Andreoletti Coach

Starting XI ▼

Alessandro Sorrentino Goalkeeper

6.22

Francesco Belli Defender

6.4

Giulio Favale

Defender54'

6.52

Marco Perrotta Defender

6.09

Lorenzo Villa Defender

7.16

Carlo Faedo Defender

6.67

Jonathan Silva

Midfielder68'

6.92

Kevin Varas (C) Midfielder

6.98

Pietro Fusi Midfielder

6.35

Luca Di Maggio

Midfielder68'

7.07

Alessandro Capelli Midfielder

6.88

Francesco Di Mariano Midfielder

6.62

Cristian Buonaiuto

Attacker68'

7.09

Mattia Bortolussi Attacker

6.44

Gianluca Caprari Attacker

6.54

Kevin Lasagna

Attacker54'

6.4

Substitutes ▼

Giulio Favale

Defender54'

6.52

Kevin Lasagna

Attacker54'

6.4

Luca Di Maggio

Midfielder68'

7.07

Cristian Buonaiuto

Attacker68'

7.09

Jonathan Silva

Midfielder68'

6.92

Bench ▼

Louis Mouquet Goalkeeper

Mattia Fortin Goalkeeper

Alessandro Boi Defender

Christian Pastina Defender

Lorenzo Crisetig Midfielder

Giovanni Giunti Midfielder

Alessandro Seghetti Attacker

Referee : Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi