Cagliari vs Torino Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Sardegna Arena Sun, 17 May - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Cagliari CAG
2 Winner 1
Torino TOR
Full Time Sun, 17 May 6:45 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
Yerry Mina - 45+2'
Sebastiano Esposito - 39'
Goal
|
Goal
Rafa Obrador - 37'

CONTEXT

In the encounter between Cagliari and Torino, the home side emerged victorious with a final score of 2-1. All scoring occurred before the interval, leaving the halftime score at 2-1 with no further goals in the second half. Torino, identified as the stronger team, controlled more of the ball with 55 percent possession against Cagliari's 45 percent. However, the expected goals stood at 1.32 for the hosts and 1.16 for the visitors, suggesting a marginal edge in quality of chances for Cagliari. The match featured a significant structural deviation attributed to the winners, yet the outcome remained aligned with both xG projections and pre-match indicators. Efficiency levels stayed in line with anticipated patterns, and the absence of any red cards ensured no additional distortions affected the game's progression. This fixture demonstrated the importance of clinical finishing over territorial dominance.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Cagliari recorded a significant structural deviation of 57 percent in their path to victory.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with projected standards for the contest.
  • xG alignment: The outcome was consistent with the xG alignment showing a 0.16 differential.
  • Market alignment: The result maintained true alignment with pre-match market indicators.
  • xG expectations: Home expected goals of 1.32 surpassed away expected goals of 1.16 as anticipated.
  • Event impact: First half events had a major impact leading to the unchanged 2-1 scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, producing zero distortion in match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Arena

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Bercigli

1st Assistant

Italy

M. Regattieri

2nd Assistant

Italy

M. Perri

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Serie A Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.85
Yellow cards / match 3.2
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.17
Cagliari F. Pisacane
F. Pisacane
VS
Torino R. D'Aversa
R. D'Aversa
1.08
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.2
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Udinese Rank: 77 L
Bologna Rank: 78 D
Atalanta Rank: 85 W
Inter Rank: 92 L
Cremonese Rank: 68 W
Sassuolo Rank: 75 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sassuolo Rank: 77 W
Udinese Rank: 75 L
Inter Rank: 90 D
Cremonese Rank: 68 D
Hellas Verona Rank: 65 W
Pisa Rank: 62 W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 8 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Cagliari
42.98%
Draw
30.53%
Away Torino
26.49%

Movement

Changes since opening
Cagliari
-53.09%
Draw
+26.8%
Torino
+26.3%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.63
74.05
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cagliari
Torino
Power Score
70.63
74.05
League Position
16
12
Global Rank
185
129

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cagliari — Opponent-weighted form score
Torino — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cagliari Torino

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Cagliari

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Torino

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cagliari ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Torino
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.89
21.91
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.91
32.89
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Cagliari +1.11 Efficiency Index
vs
Torino -1.11 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cagliari
Torino
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cagliari
vs
Torino
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cagliari Torino
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cagliari Torino
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Cagliari
Torino
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Cagliari
vs
Torino
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Cagliari Torino
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Cagliari 0.36
Torino 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Cagliari Torino
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Cagliari 0.02
Torino 0.06
Cagliari
Torino
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CAG had peak pressure around 51'.
  • CAG started the game with stronger pressure.
CAG Pressure TOR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CAG reached the top pressure at 51' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cagliari CAG Home
29 matches
Torino TOR Away
Match Record
10
Wins
11
8
Draws
8
11
Losses
10
Goals
36
Goals Scored
42
42
Goals Conceded
36
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T09:06:15+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
E. Caprile
Italy
1 E. Caprile
G. Zappa
Italy
28 G. Zappa
Y. Mina González
Colombia
26 Y. Mina González
A. Dossena
Italy
22 A. Dossena
A. Obert
Slovakia
33 A. Obert
M. Adopo
Substitution
France
8 M. Adopo
G. Gaetano
Italy
10 G. Gaetano
A. Deiola
Substitution
Italy
14 (C) A. Deiola
M. Palestra
Italy
2 M. Palestra
S. Esposito
Substitution
Italy
94 S. Esposito
P. Mendy
Substitution
Senegal
31 P. Mendy
Pitch
A. Paleari
Italy
1 A. Paleari
E. Ebosse
Cameroon
77 E. Ebosse
S. Coco-Bassey Oubiña
Equatorial Guinea
23 S. Coco-Bassey Oubiña
L. Marianucci
Substitution
Italy
35 L. Marianucci
Rafael Burguera
Spain
33 Rafael Burguera
M. Prati
Substitution
Italy
4 M. Prati
E. İlkhan
Substitution
Türkiye
6 E. İlkhan
M. Pedersen
Substitution
Norway
16 M. Pedersen
N. Vlašić
Croatia
10 N. Vlašić
G. Simeone
Argentina
18 G. Simeone
D. Zapata Banguera
Substitution
Colombia
91 (C) D. Zapata Banguera

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Sardegna Arena
Capacity :
16416
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Alberto Arena
Filippo Bercigli
Mattia Regattieri
Mario Perri

Statistics

Possession
CAG
47%
TOR
53%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 3
8 Shots 6
36 Dangerous attacks 41
45 Possession 55
5 Corners 1
13 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 11
4 Successful Dribbles 4
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
10 Dribble Attempts 14
25 Throwins 20
12 Successful Headers 11
1 Assists 1
60 Ball Safe 63
8 Goal Attempts 5
4 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

101 Attacks 101
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

343 Successful Passes 434
413 Passes 510
21 Successful Long Passes 18
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
10 Key Passes 8
83 Successful Passes Percentage 85
55 Long Passes 41

Defensive

9 Interceptions 7
18 Tackles 20
2 Saves 1
46 Duels Won 42

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 2
19 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
8 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Alberto Arena

Starting XI ▼

1
Elia Caprile
Elia Caprile Goalkeeper
6.45
22
Alberto Dossena
Alberto Dossena Defender
7.16
26
Yerry Mina
Yerry Mina Defender
7.68
28
Gabriele Zappa
Gabriele Zappa Defender
6.59
33
Adam Obert
Adam Obert Defender
6.74
2
Marco Palestra
Marco Palestra Midfielder
6.68
8
Michel Adopo
Michel Adopo Midfielder
6.69
25
Ibrahim Sulemana
Ibrahim Sulemana
Midfielder72'
6.68
10
Gianluca Gaetano
Gianluca Gaetano Midfielder
7.01
14
Alessandro Deiola
Alessandro Deiola (C) Midfielder
6.73
90
Michael Folorunsho
Michael Folorunsho
Midfielder72'
6.37
94
Sebastiano Esposito
Sebastiano Esposito Midfielder
7.66
15
Juan Rodríguez
Juan Rodríguez
Defender82'
6.72
31
Paul Mendy
Paul Mendy Attacker
6.79
19
Andrea Belotti
Andrea Belotti
Attacker82'
6.62
Referee : Alberto Arena

Starting XI ▼

1
Alberto Paleari
Alberto Paleari Goalkeeper
6.36
23
Saúl Coco
Saúl Coco Defender
7.09
35
Luca Marianucci
Luca Marianucci Defender
6.37
13
Guillermo Maripán
Guillermo Maripán
Defender46'
6.77
77
Enzo Ebosse
Enzo Ebosse Defender
6.52
4
Matteo Prati
Matteo Prati Midfielder
6.84
22
Cesare Casadei
Cesare Casadei
Midfielder59'
6.62
6
Emirhan İlkhan
Emirhan İlkhan Midfielder
6.3
17
Sandro Kulenovic
Sandro Kulenovic
Attacker85'
6.48
16
Marcus Pedersen
Marcus Pedersen Midfielder
6.32
92
Alieu Njie
Alieu Njie
Attacker77'
6.57
33
Rafa Obrador
Rafa Obrador Midfielder
7.4
10
Nikola Vlašić
Nikola Vlašić Attacker
7.32
18
Giovanni Simeone
Giovanni Simeone Attacker
6.54
91
Duván Zapata
Duván Zapata (C) Attacker
6.38
19
Ché Adams
Ché Adams
Attacker59'
6.56

Events

2ND-HALF
85'
Event
Sandro Kulenovic → Emirhan İlkhan
9th Substitution
Event
Juan Rodríguez → Sebastiano Esposito
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
82'
Event
Andrea Belotti → Paul Mendy 
7th Substitution
82'
82'
Event
Guillermo Maripán
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
77'
Event
Alieu Njie → Marcus Pedersen
6th Substitution
Event
Michael Folorunsho → Alessandro Deiola
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Ibrahim Sulemana → Michel Adopo
5th Substitution
72'
59'
Event
Cesare Casadei → Matteo Prati
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Ché Adams → Duván Zapata
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Guillermo Maripán → Luca Marianucci
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Yerry Mina
Header / 3rd Goal
45+2'
Event
Sebastiano Esposito
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
39'
37'
Event
Rafa Obrador
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Giovanni Pablo Simeone takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
85
Update Update
Sandro Kulenovic comes on for Emirhan Ilkhan.
84
Attempt Attempt
Che Adams takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Andrea Belotti comes on for Paul Mendy.
83
Update Update
Juan Rodriguez replaces Sebastiano Esposito.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Guillermo Maripan receives a yellow card.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Guillermo Maripan receives a yellow card.
80
Attempt Attempt
Emirhan Ilkhan takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
77
Update Update
Eybi Nije comes on for Marcus Holmgren Pedersen.
75
Attempt Attempt
Che Adams takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
72
Update Update
Michael Folorunsho is on, and Alessandro Deiola is off.
63
Attempt Attempt
Alessandro Deiola takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
62
Attempt Attempt
Che Adams takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
59
Update Update
Cesare Casadei comes on for Matteo Prati.
59
Substitution Substitution
Che Adams is substituted for Duvan Estevan Zapata Banguera.
58
Attempt Attempt
Alessandro Deiola takes a right-footed shot but misses.
57
Attempt Attempt
Marco Palestra takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Guillermo Maripan is on, and Luca Marianucci is off.
46
Update Update
Paul Mendy's header goes wide.
45
Attempt Attempt
Paul Mendy takes a shot with his head but misses.
45
Update Update
Yerry Fernando Mina Gonzalez scores with a header.
45
Attempt Attempt
Gabriele Zappa takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Yerry Fernando Mina Gonzalez scores, making it 2-1.
45
Update Update
Yerry Fernando Mina Gonzalez scores with a header.
39
Attempt Attempt
Sebastiano Esposito takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Rafael Obrador scores, making it 1-0.
37
Attempt Attempt
Rafael Obrador scores with a left-footed shot.
35
Attempt Attempt
Giovanni Pablo Simeone takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
Paul Mendy takes a shot with his head but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Giovanni Pablo Simeone takes a header but misses the shot.
30
Attempt Attempt
Giovanni Pablo Simeone takes a left-footed shot but misses.
20
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Vlasic takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Marco Palestra takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
10
Attempt Attempt
Sebastiano Esposito's left-footed shot is blocked.
10
Attempt Attempt
Paul Mendy attempts a header but misses the shot.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Cagliari 2-1 Torino. Structural assessment: Cagliari exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Cagliari vs Torino preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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