Cagliari vs Atalanta Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Sardegna Arena Mon, 27 Apr - 4:30 PM
Serie A
Cagliari CAG
3 Winner 2
Atalanta ATA
Full Time Mon, 27 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Gennaro Borrelli - 47'
Paul Mendy - 8', 1'
Goal
|
Goal
Gianluca Scamacca - 45', 40'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Cagliari 3–2 Atalanta. The result saw Cagliari take the points. Cagliari showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 27%–73%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Cagliari's 3-2 win featured minimal structural deviation of 5.8%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true for Cagliari's victory.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards produced no distortion in dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Sacchi

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Vecchi

1st Assistant

D. Di Marco

4th Official

D. Moro

2nd Assistant

Cagliari F. Pisacane
F. Pisacane
VS
Atalanta R. Palladino
R. Palladino
0.96
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.68
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Inter Rank: L
Cremonese Rank: W
Sassuolo Rank: L
Napoli Rank: L
Pisa Rank: L
Como Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Roma Rank: D
Juventus Rank: L
Lecce Rank: W
Hellas Verona Rank: W
Inter Rank: D
Udinese Rank: D
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 5 - 18
18

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Cagliari
94.16%
Draw
5.65%
Away Atalanta
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Cagliari
+1.76%
Draw
-1.74%
Atalanta
-0.02%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
14.19
26.27
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cagliari
Atalanta
Power Score
14.19
26.27
League Position
16
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cagliari — Opponent-weighted form score
Atalanta — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cagliari Atalanta

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Cagliari

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Atalanta

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cagliari ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Atalanta
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.15
19.59
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.59
38.15
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Cagliari +1.99 Efficiency Index
vs
Atalanta -1.99 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cagliari
Atalanta
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cagliari ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Atalanta
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cagliari Atalanta
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cagliari Atalanta
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Cagliari
Atalanta
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Cagliari
vs
Atalanta
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Cagliari Atalanta
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Cagliari 0.35
Atalanta 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Cagliari Atalanta
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Cagliari 0.04
Atalanta 0.12
Cagliari
Atalanta
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ATA had peak pressure around 89'.
  • CAG started the game with stronger pressure.
CAG Pressure ATA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ATA reached the top pressure at 89' (85.75).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cagliari CAG Home
35 matches
Atalanta ATA Away
Match Record
12
Wins
18
5
Draws
5
18
Losses
12
Goals
38
Goals Scored
44
44
Goals Conceded
38
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-04-28T00:01:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
E. Caprile
Italy
1 E. Caprile
M. Adopo
France
8 M. Adopo
J. da Silva Figueiredo Freitas
Portugal
32 J. da Silva Figueiredo Freitas
Y. Mina González
Colombia
26 Y. Mina González
J. Rodríguez Camejo
Substitution
Uruguay
15 J. Rodríguez Camejo
A. Obert
Slovakia
33 A. Obert
G. Gaetano
Italy
10 G. Gaetano
A. Deiola
Substitution
Italy
14 A. Deiola
M. Folorunsho
Italy
90 M. Folorunsho
S. Esposito
Substitution
Italy
94 S. Esposito
P. Mendy
Substitution
Senegal
31 P. Mendy
Pitch
M. Carnesecchi
Italy
29 M. Carnesecchi
S. Kolašinac
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
23 S. Kolašinac
B. Djimsiti
Albania
19 B. Djimsiti
G. Scalvini
Italy
42 G. Scalvini
D. Zappacosta
Substitution
Italy
77 D. Zappacosta
M. Pašalić
Croatia
8 M. Pašalić
M. de Roon
Substitution
Netherlands
15 M. de Roon
R. Bellanova
Substitution
Italy
16 R. Bellanova
G. Raspadori
Italy
18 G. Raspadori
C. De Ketelaere
Substitution
Belgium
17 C. De Ketelaere
G. Scamacca
Italy
9 G. Scamacca

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 27, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Sardegna Arena
Capacity :
16416
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Juan Luca Sacchi
Valerio Vecchi
Davide Di Marco
Davide Moro

Statistics

Possession
CAG
33%
ATA
67%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 3
7 Shots 12
26 Dangerous attacks 46
27 Possession 73
4 Corners 6
11 Free kicks 8

Match Overview

4 Injuries 1
83 Ball Safe 82
7 Goal Attempts 9
15 Successful Headers 16
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 37
1 Assists 1
22 Throwins 31
6 Successful Dribbles 7
9 Goal Kicks 7
16 Dribble Attempts 19
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

35 Attacks 67
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

5 Key Passes 7
266 Passes 745
68 Successful Passes Percentage 86
16 Successful Long Passes 27
180 Successful Passes 644
55 Long Passes 50
29 Successful Long Passes Percentage 54

Defensive

47 Duels Won 46
5 Saves 1
16 Tackles 16
16 Interceptions 17

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 17
2 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

0 Offsides 3
8 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Juan Luca Sacchi

Starting XI ▼

1
Elia Caprile
Elia Caprile Goalkeeper
6.91
8
Michel Adopo
Michel Adopo Defender
6.68
15
Juan Rodríguez
Juan Rodríguez Defender
6.67
22
Alberto Dossena
Alberto Dossena
Defender72'
6.81
26
Yerry Mina
Yerry Mina Defender
6.89
32
Zé Pedro
Zé Pedro Defender
6.6
33
Adam Obert
Adam Obert Defender
6.83
10
Gianluca Gaetano
Gianluca Gaetano Midfielder
6.82
14
Alessandro Deiola
Alessandro Deiola Midfielder
6.73
25
Ibrahim Sulemana
Ibrahim Sulemana
Midfielder56'
6.46
90
Michael Folorunsho
Michael Folorunsho Midfielder
6.57
31
Paul Mendy
Paul Mendy Attacker
2
6.68
29
Gennaro Borrelli
Gennaro Borrelli
Attacker46'
6.74
94
Sebastiano Esposito
Sebastiano Esposito Attacker
7.18
2
Marco Palestra
Marco Palestra
Defender56'
6.95
Referee : Juan Luca Sacchi

Starting XI ▼

29
Marco Carnesecchi
Marco Carnesecchi Goalkeeper
7.07
19
Berat Djimsiti
Berat Djimsiti Defender
6.95
23
Sead Kolasinac
Sead Kolasinac Defender
6.6
3
Odilon Kossounou
Odilon Kossounou
Defender73'
6.63
42
Giorgio Scalvini
Giorgio Scalvini Defender
7
8
Mario Pašalić
Mario Pašalić Midfielder
7
15
Marten de Roon
Marten de Roon Midfielder
6.95
13
Éderson
Éderson
Midfielder73'
6.97
16
Raoul Bellanova
Raoul Bellanova Midfielder
6.8
90
Nikola Krstović
Nikola Krstović
Attacker56'
7.1
77
Davide Zappacosta
Davide Zappacosta Midfielder
6.86
59
Nicola Zalewski
Nicola Zalewski
Midfielder56'
6.97
9
Gianluca Scamacca
Gianluca Scamacca Attacker
2
7.03
17
Charles De Ketelaere
Charles De Ketelaere Attacker
7.18
10
Lazar Samardžić
Lazar Samardžić
Midfielder77'
6.85
18
Giacomo Raspadori
Giacomo Raspadori Attacker
7.05

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Andrea Belotti → Gennaro Borrelli
9th Substitution
77'
77'
Event
Lazar Samardžić → Charles De Ketelaere
10th Substitution
73'
Event
Éderson → Marten de Roon
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Odilon Kossounou → Sead Kolasinac
8th Substitution
Event
Alberto Dossena → Juan Rodríguez
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Marco Palestra → Sebastiano Esposito
3rd Substitution
56'
Event
Ibrahim Sulemana → Alessandro Deiola
4th Substitution
56'
56'
Event
Nicola Zalewski → Davide Zappacosta
5th Substitution
56'
Event
Nikola Krstović → Raoul Bellanova
2nd Substitution
Event
Gennaro Borrelli
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
47'
Event
Gennaro Borrelli → Paul Mendy
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Gianluca Scamacca
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
40'
Event
Gianluca Scamacca
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Paul Mendy
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
8'
Event
Paul Mendy
Header / 1st Goal
1'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Corner Corner
Atalanta wins a corner after Adam Obert concedes.
90
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Krstovic's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Berat Djimsiti's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
90
Corner Corner
Atalanta wins a corner after Yerry Mina concedes.
90
Attempt Attempt
Giacomo Raspadori's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved by Elia Caprile in the center of the goal.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Cagliari winning 3-2 against Atalanta.
89
Corner Corner
Atalanta win a corner, conceded by Elia Caprile.
89
Corner Corner
Atalanta wins a corner after Elia Caprile concedes.
89
Corner Corner
Gianluca Scamacca from Atalanta misses a header from the center of the box, sending it to the left. Lazar Samardzic provided the assist with a cross after a corner.
85
Update Update
Gianluca Gaetano from Cagliari is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
85
Update Update
Foul by Giacomo Raspadori of Atalanta.
83
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Giacomo Raspadori from Atalanta has his right-footed shot from outside the box saved.
82
Corner Corner
Atalanta is awarded a corner after Elia Caprile concedes.
82
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Nikola Krstovic from Atalanta has his right-footed shot from the center of the box saved in the bottom left corner by Elia Caprile from Cagliari, with an assist from Éderson.
80
Attempt Attempt
Mario Pasalic from Atalanta misses a right-footed shot from the center of the box, sending it to the left. He was assisted by Odilon Kossounou, who provided a headed pass after a set piece situation.
79
Update Update
Foul committed by Zé Pedro of Cagliari.
79
Update Update
Giacomo Raspadori from Atalanta wins a free kick in the attacking half.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Lazar Samardzic comes on for Charles De Ketelaere.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cagliari: Andrea Belotti comes on for Gennaro Borrelli due to an injury.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cagliari: Alberto Dossena comes on for Juan Rodríguez due to an injury.
73
Corner Corner
Atalanta earn a corner after Yerry Mina concedes.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Éderson comes on for Marten de Roon.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Odilon Kossounou comes on for Sead Kolasinac.
72
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Juan Rodríguez from Cagliari.
71
Corner Corner
Atalanta wins a corner after Yerry Mina concedes.
68
Corner Corner
Atalanta wins a corner after Juan Rodríguez concedes.
65
Corner Corner
Cagliari wins a corner after Berat Djimsiti concedes.
63
Update Update
Gennaro Borrelli from Cagliari is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
63
Update Update
Foul committed by Berat Djimsiti of Atalanta.
61
Update Update
Gennaro Borrelli from Cagliari wins a free kick in the defensive half.
60
Update Update
Gianluca Gaetano from Cagliari wins a free kick in the attacking half.
60
Attempt Attempt
Michel Adopo's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
59
Update Update
Foul by Nikola Krstovic of Atalanta.
59
Update Update
Nicola Zalewski from Atalanta wins a free kick on the left wing.
57
Update Update
Foul committed by Marco Palestra of Cagliari.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Nikola Krstovic comes on for Raoul Bellanova.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cagliari: Marco Palestra comes on for Sebastiano Esposito.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Nicola Zalewski comes on for Davide Zappacosta.
56
Update Update
Gianluca Scamacca of Atalanta wins a free kick on the left wing.
54
Corner Corner
Zé Pedro from Cagliari misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, sending it high and wide to the right. Adam Obert provided the assist with a cross after a corner.
53
Corner Corner
Cagliari wins a corner after Berat Djimsiti concedes.
53
Corner Corner
Cagliari wins a corner after Raoul Bellanova concedes.
52
Update Update
Foul committed by Charles De Ketelaere of Atalanta.
52
Update Update
Sebastiano Esposito from Cagliari wins a free kick on the right wing.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Gennaro Borrelli scores for Cagliari with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom right corner. The score is now Cagliari 3, Atalanta 2.
47
Corner Corner
Goal! Gennaro Borrelli scores for Cagliari with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom right corner. The score is now Cagliari 3, Atalanta 2.
45
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Paul Mendy of Cagliari.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Gianluca Scamacca scores for Atalanta with a right-footed shot from the center of the box after a set piece. The match is now 2-2.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 5 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with the score at Cagliari 2, Atalanta 2.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the match tied at 2-2 between Cagliari and Atalanta.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cagliari: Gennaro Borrelli comes on for Paul Mendy due to an injury.
45
Update Update
Giorgio Scalvini from Atalanta wins a free kick in the attacking half.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Paul Mendy of Cagliari.
45
Update Update
Zé Pedro from Cagliari wins a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Giorgio Scalvini of Atalanta.
45
Update Update
Sead Kolasinac wins a free kick for Atalanta in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Paul Mendy of Cagliari.
40
Attempt Attempt
Charles De Ketelaere's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Gianluca Scamacca provided the assist.
40
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Gianluca Scamacca scores for Atalanta with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box into the bottom right corner. The score is now Cagliari 2, Atalanta 1.
38
Update Update
Foul committed by Giacomo Raspadori of Atalanta.
38
Update Update
Michel Adopo from Cagliari wins a free kick on the right wing.
37
Attempt Attempt
Sebastiano Esposito from Cagliari misses a right-footed shot from outside the box to the left, assisted by Michel Adopo.
36
Update Update
Sebastiano Esposito from Cagliari wins a free kick in the defensive half.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Sead Kolasinac against Atalanta.
33
Update Update
Gianluca Scamacca of Atalanta is caught offside.
32
Update Update
Atalanta is called offside. Davide Zappacosta is the player caught offside.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by Adam Obert of Cagliari.
28
Update Update
Raoul Bellanova from Atalanta wins a free kick on the right wing.
27
Update Update
Sebastiano Esposito from Cagliari wins a free kick in the defensive half.
27
Update Update
Foul by Sead Kolasinac against Atalanta.
25
Update Update
Foul committed by Yerry Mina of Cagliari.
25
Update Update
Gianluca Scamacca of Atalanta wins a free kick in the attacking half.
24
Update Update
Adam Obert from Cagliari wins a free kick in the defensive half.
24
Update Update
Foul by Sead Kolasinac against Atalanta.
23
Update Update
Berat Djimsiti from Atalanta misses an attempt, heading the ball too high from very close range after a set piece situation.
22
Update Update
Charles De Ketelaere from Atalanta wins a free kick in the attacking half.
22
Update Update
Foul committed by Alessandro Deiola of Cagliari.
16
Update Update
Foul committed by Michael Folorunsho of Cagliari.
16
Update Update
Raoul Bellanova from Atalanta wins a free kick in the defensive half.
16
Update Update
Michael Folorunsho from Cagliari wins a free kick in the attacking half.
16
Update Update
Foul committed by Marten de Roon of Atalanta.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by Gianluca Scamacca of Atalanta.
14
Update Update
Yerry Mina from Cagliari wins a free kick in the defensive half.
10
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Yerry Mina of Cagliari.
8
Attempt Attempt
Alessandro Deiola's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved by Marco Carnesecchi in the center of the goal.
8
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Cagliari leads Atalanta 2-0. Paul Mendy scores for Cagliari with a left-footed shot from very close range into the bottom right corner after a corner.
7
Update Update
Cagliari is called offside. Paul Mendy is the player caught in an offside position.
2
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Davide Zappacosta from Atalanta.
1
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Cagliari leads 1-0 against Atalanta. Paul Mendy scores for Cagliari with a header from the center of the box after a fast break.

CONCLUSION

Cagliari's gritty 3-2 triumph over possession-heavy Atalanta epitomizes football's unpredictability, transforming 27% possession into three vital points. Level at 2-2 at halftime, the hosts' second-half organization frustrated the visitors' assaults, clinching victory through sharp finishing. Atalanta's superiority in ball control failed to yield post-interval goals, underscoring conversion issues. With no red cards or interruptions, the match's purity highlighted Cagliari's counter-punching prowess. This minimal-deviation result strengthens Cagliari's relegation battle stance and questions Atalanta's consistency against compact defenses, setting up intriguing future fixtures.

Cagliari vs Atalanta preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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