Cádiz vs Málaga Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla Sat, 21 Mar - 5:30 PM
La Liga 2 Cádiz CAD 
0 
3
3
Málaga MLA Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 5:30 PM
Round 31 · Regular Season
|
Dani Lorenzo - 47'
Chupe - 33', 22'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion Promotion Playoffs Relegation
Data last checked: May 15
CONTEXT
The match has officially finished, with Málaga securing a commanding 3-0 away victory over Cádiz. The visitors established their dominance early, taking a comfortable 2-0 lead into the half-time break and never looking back. With no red cards issued to either side, the game was contested at full numerical strength, allowing Málaga to dictate play without disruption. Pre-match market expectations slightly favored Málaga with a 39.4% implied probability of winning, while Cádiz held a 30.9% chance and a draw sat at 29.7%. Because the stronger team took all three points, the final outcome successfully aligned with the pre-match market. However, the one-sided scoreline represented a significant deviation level of 60.6% by Málaga, far exceeding the tight contest that the initial odds suggested. On the pitch, Málaga controlled the tempo by holding 54% of the possession compared to the hosts' 46%. While expected goals (xG) data is unavailable to measure the precise quality of scoring chances, the overall efficiency shift was completely in line with the decisive result. Málaga efficiently capitalized on their extended periods on the ball, condemning Cádiz to a difficult home defeat.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Málaga showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
- Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
- xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
- Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
- xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
- Event impact: No major event distortion.
- Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
S. González Soriano
VS
J. Funes Arjona
1.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.7
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
SD Eibar Rank: 69 L
Real Sociedad II Rank: 63 L
Burgos Rank: 67 D
Almería Rank: 70 L
Huesca Rank: 60 L
Granada Rank: 67 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Granada Rank: 67 W
Albacete Rank: 67 W
Real Sociedad II Rank: 63 L
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 59 W
Mirandés Rank: 59 L
Burgos Rank: 67 W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 4 - 3
3
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min) Cádiz30.89%
Draw
29.67%
Málaga39.44%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.17 68.83 0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cádiz MálagaPower Score
61.17
68.83
League Position
16
4
Global Rank
452
222
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Cádiz — Opponent-weighted form score
Málaga — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cádiz Málaga
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
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Cádiz
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Málaga
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Cádiz ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Málaga
Attacking Efficiency Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.48
40.56
Defensive Efficiency Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.56
18.48
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Cádiz -2.24 Efficiency Index
vs
Málaga +2.24 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cádiz
Málaga
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Cádiz ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Málaga
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cádiz Málaga Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cádiz Málaga Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Cádiz
Málaga
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Cádiz CAD Home
13 matches
Málaga MLA Away
Match Record 6
Wins
3
4
Draws
4
3
Losses
6
Goals 17
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
17
+9
Goal Difference
-9
Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:23:13+00:00
STARTING XI
Cádiz Málaga Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
1 D. Gil Mohedano
J. de la Rosa
#1976'
20 I. Carcelén Valencia
2 J. Moreno San Vidal
6 I. Ortega
33 R. Pereira Vargas
15 S. Ortuño Díaz
B. Kovačević
#1446'
5 M. Diakité
J. Domina
#3776'
11 (C) J. Fernández Sáez de la Torre
18 Y. Diarra
D. Camara Sankharé
#1746'
16 Antonio Cordero
R. Martí Salvador
#968'
23 ?. García Pascual
1 (C) A. Herrero Peinador
V. García Marín
#1465'
18 D. Rodríguez Sánchez
20 F. Montero Rubio
16 D. Murillo Dominguez
3 C. Puga Medina
J. Dorrio Ortega
#2566'
11 J. Muñoz Benavides
22 D. Lorenzo Guerrero
23 I. Merino Rodríguez
J. Lobete Cienfuegos
#2479'
10 D. Larrubia Romano
2
E. Jauregi Escobar
#1779'
9 C. Ruiz Rubio
A. Ochoa Moloney
#3568'
12 C. Dotor Gonzalez
General Information
📅 Date & Time :
Mar 21, 2026, 05:30 PM
🏆 Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 31 · Regular Season
🏟️ Stadium :
Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla
👥 Capacity :
20724
🌱 Pitch Surface :
Grass
🌤️ Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
🧑⚖️ Referees :
Gonzalo González Páez
Salvador Lax Franco
Carlos Grande Rabadán
Diego Fernández Correas
Next Match
Cádiz
vs
Ceuta
League: La Liga 2
Kickoff: Sat, 28 Mar - 1:00 PM
Venue: Away
Málaga
vs
Leganés
League: La Liga 2
Kickoff: Sat, 28 Mar - 5:30 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Possession
CAD
44%
MLA
56%
Top Statistics
0 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 3
1 Shots 8
30 Dangerous attacks 38
46 Possession 54
4 Corners 2
7 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 0
Match Overview
20 Dribble Attempts 21
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62
20 Throwins 18
14 Goal Kicks 9
76 Ball Safe 76
9 Successful Dribbles 13
0 Assists 2
7 Goal Attempts 14
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 5
Attacking
79 Attacks 100
1 Big Chances Missed 1
Possession
46 Long Passes 75
14 Successful Long Passes 43
30 Successful Long Passes Percentage 57
340 Successful Passes 447
80 Successful Passes Percentage 86
425 Passes 518
5 Key Passes 17
Defensive
21 Tackles 16
6 Interceptions 13
3 Saves 1
Build-up
19 Total Crosses 9
3 Accurate Crosses 4
Discipline
16 Fouls 7
4 Offsides 1
Lineup
Cádiz Referee : Salvador Lax Franco
Manager ▼
S. González Soriano Coach
Starting XI ▼
1 David Gil Goalkeeper
5.962 Jorge Moreno Defender
6.396 Iker Recio Defender
6.4120 Iza Carcelén Defender
6.719José Antonio de la Rosa
6.56Attacker76'
33 Raúl Pereira Defender
6.175 Moussa Diakité Midfielder
5.8414Bojan Kovacevic
6.38Defender46'
11 Suso (C) Midfielder
6.937Jerónimo Dómina
Attacker76'
6.42
15 Sergio Ortuño Midfielder
6.6816 Antoñito Cordero Midfielder
6.0317Dawda Camara
6.58Attacker46'
18 Yussi Diarra Midfielder
6.3623 García Pascual Attacker
6.29Roger Martí
Attacker68'
6.46
Substitutes ▼
14Bojan Kovacevic
6.38Defender46'
17Dawda Camara
6.58Attacker46'
9Roger Martí
Attacker68'
6.46
19José Antonio de la Rosa
6.56Attacker76'
37Jerónimo Dómina
Attacker76'
6.42
Bench ▼
13 Victor Wehbi Aznar Goalkeeper
21
Mario Climent Defender
29
Alfred Caicedo Defender
38
Sergio Arribas Defender
3
Rominigue Kouamé Midfielder
8
Álex Fernández Midfielder
24
Joaquín González Midfielder
Málaga Referee : Salvador Lax Franco
Manager ▼
J. Funes Arjona Coach
Starting XI ▼
1 Alfonso Herrero (C) Goalkeeper
6.843 Carlos Puga Defender
7.3616 Diego Murillo Defender
7.4418 Dani Sánchez Defender
6.9314Víctor García
6.4Defender65'
20 Javi Montero Defender
7.3210 David Larrubia Midfielder
6.824Julen Lobete
6.96Attacker79'
11 Joaquín Muñoz Midfielder
7.0625Josué Dorrio
6.53Attacker66'
22 Dani Lorenzo Midfielder
23 Izan Merino Midfielder
6.989 Chupe Attacker
2
8.8117Eneko Jauregi
6.26Attacker79'
12 Carlos Dotor Attacker
7.6435Aarón Ochoa
7.57Midfielder68'
Substitutes ▼
14Víctor García
6.4Defender65'
25Josué Dorrio
6.53Attacker66'
35Aarón Ochoa
7.57Midfielder68'
24Julen Lobete
6.96Attacker79'
17Eneko Jauregi
6.26Attacker79'
Bench ▼
13
Carlos López Goalkeeper
2
Jokin Gabilondo Defender
36 Ángel Recio Defender
5
Darko Brasanac Midfielder
8
Juanpe Midfielder
37
Rafa Rodríguez Midfielder
21
Adrián Niño Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
Roger Martí
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
87'
Jerónimo Dómina
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
80'
79'
Julen Lobete → David Larrubia
10th Substitution
79'
Eneko Jauregi → Chupe
9th Substitution
José Antonio de la Rosa → Iza Carcelén
8th Substitution
76'
Jerónimo Dómina → Suso
7th Substitution
76'
Roger Martí → García Pascual
5th Substitution
68'
68'
Aarón Ochoa → Carlos Dotor
6th Substitution
66'
Josué Dorrio → Joaquín Muñoz
4th Substitution
65'
Víctor García → Dani Sánchez
3rd Substitution
47'
Dani Lorenzo
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Bojan Kovacevic → Moussa Diakité
2nd Substitution
46'
Dawda Camara → Antoñito Cordero
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
33'
Chupe
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
22'
Chupe
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Málaga exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.
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