Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Turf Moor Sun, 24 May - 3:00 PM
Premier League
Burnley BUR
1 – 1
Wolverhampton Wanderers WOL
Full Time Sun, 24 May 3:00 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
Zian Flemming - 47'
Goal
|
Goal
Adam Armstrong - 5' (P)

CONTEXT

Burnley hosted Wolverhampton Wanderers in a match that concluded with a 1-1 draw. At halftime the score stood at 0-1 in favor of the visitors. Burnley maintained 70 percent possession throughout the game while Wolverhampton Wanderers held 30 percent. Despite the home side's dominance in ball control they were unable to secure a victory. The stronger team according to pre-match assessment was Wolverhampton Wanderers yet both sides settled for a point each. The outcome represented a draw with no red cards disrupting proceedings. Burnley pushed forward in the second half to equalize but could not find a winner. This result highlights the competitive nature of the encounter between the two sides with territorial control heavily favoring the hosts.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Burnley 1-1 Wolverhampton Wanderers. Wolverhampton Wanderers showed a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable for alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: The final result aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: No xG metrics were provided to evaluate expectations.
  • Event impact: The halftime lead by Wolverhampton Wanderers influenced the eventual draw.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued affecting the match outcome.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Kitchen

England 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

W. Smith

1st Assistant

England

A. Dallison

2nd Assistant

England

A. Herczeg

4th Official

England

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.42
Yellow cards / match 3.51
Red cards / match 0.09
Penalties / match 0.18
Burnley M. James Jackson
M. James Jackson
VS
Wolverhampton Wanderers R. Edwards
R. Edwards
0.44
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.68
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arsenal Rank: 98 L
Aston Villa Rank: 91 D
Leeds United Rank: 86 L
Manchester City Rank: 99 L
Nottingham Forest Rank: 87 L
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 90 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fulham Rank: 86 D
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 90 L
Sunderland Rank: 81 D
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 84 L
Leeds United Rank: 88 L
West Ham United Rank: 83 L
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 6 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Burnley
4.44%
Draw
91.5%
Away Wolverhampton Wanderers
4.06%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.78
65.87
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Burnley
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Power Score
64.78
65.87
League Position
19
20
Global Rank
82
68

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Burnley — Opponent-weighted form score
Wolverhampton Wanderers — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Burnley Wolverhampton Wanderers

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Burnley

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Burnley ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Wolverhampton Wanderers
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Burnley Wolverhampton Wanderers
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Burnley Wolverhampton Wanderers
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Burnley
Wolverhampton Wanderers
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Burnley
vs
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Burnley Wolverhampton Wanderers
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Burnley 0.00
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Burnley Wolverhampton Wanderers
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Burnley 0.00
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0.00
Burnley
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • WOL had peak pressure around 6'.
  • WOL started the game with stronger pressure.
BUR Pressure WOL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: WOL reached the top pressure at 6' (98.79).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 26 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Burnley BUR Home
26 matches
Wolverhampton Wanderers WOL Away
Match Record
10
Wins
10
6
Draws
6
10
Losses
10
Goals
28
Goals Scored
27
27
Goals Conceded
28
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-05-24T15:00:30+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Weiß
Germany
13 M. Weiß
K. Walker
England
2 K. Walker
A. Tuanzebe
DR Congo
6 A. Tuanzebe
B. Humphreys
England
12 B. Humphreys
L. Pires Silva
Brazil
23 L. Pires Silva
F. Morris Luís
Portugal
16 F. Morris Luís
C. Ugochukwu
Substitution
France
8 C. Ugochukwu
L. Tchaouna
Substitution
France
17 L. Tchaouna
H. Mejbri
Substitution
Tunisia
28 H. Mejbri
J. Anthony
Substitution
England
11 J. Anthony
Z. Flemming
Substitution
Netherlands
19 Z. Flemming
Pitch
J. Malheiro de Sá
Portugal
1 J. Malheiro de Sá
L. Krejčí
Substitution
Czech Republic
37 L. Krejčí
S. Bueno Sciutto
Uruguay
4 S. Bueno Sciutto
Y. Mosquera
Colombia
15 Y. Mosquera
D. Wolfe
Substitution
Norway
6 D. Wolfe
A. Trindade da Costa Neto
Brazil
7 A. Trindade da Costa Neto
A. Gomes
Substitution
England
47 A. Gomes
R. Gomes
Substitution
Portugal
21 R. Gomes
M. Mané
England
36 M. Mané
H. Hwang
South Korea
11 H. Hwang
A. Armstrong
Substitution
England
9 A. Armstrong

General Information

Date & Time :
May 24, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Turf Moor
Capacity :
22546
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Andrew Kitchen
Wade Smith
Andrew Dallison
Adam Herczeg

Statistics

Possession
BUR
64%
WOL
36%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 4
8 Shots 4
61 Dangerous attacks 41
70 Possession 30
7 Corners 7
13 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

35 Ball Safe 31
1 Injuries 0
0 Goal Attempts 4
1 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5
15 Throwins 13
16 Dribble Attempts 11
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
6 Successful Dribbles 5
7 Goal Kicks 8
13 Successful Headers 10
0 Penalties 1
1 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 3
111 Attacks 69

Possession

33 Successful Long Passes 16
60 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
557 Passes 223
87 Successful Passes Percentage 74
487 Successful Passes 164
55 Long Passes 46
14 Key Passes 12

Defensive

8 Tackles 17
37 Duels Won 41
7 Interceptions 11
3 Saves 7

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 8
28 Total Crosses 22

Discipline

0 Offsides 3
10 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Andrew Kitchen

Starting XI ▼

13
Max Weiß
Max Weiß Goalkeeper
6.72
2
Kyle Walker
Kyle Walker Defender
6.53
6
Axel Tuanzebe
Axel Tuanzebe Defender
6.53
12
Bashir Humphreys
Bashir Humphreys Defender
6.76
23
Lucas Pires
Lucas Pires Defender
6.69
8
Lesley Ugochukwu
Lesley Ugochukwu Midfielder
6.65
20
James Ward-Prowse
James Ward-Prowse
Midfielder75'
6.81
11
Jaidon Anthony
Jaidon Anthony Midfielder
6.83
7
Jacob Bruun Larsen
Jacob Bruun Larsen
Attacker85'
6.52
16
Florentino
Florentino Midfielder
6.68
17
Loum Tchaouna
Loum Tchaouna Midfielder
6.59
10
Marcus Edwards
Marcus Edwards
Attacker75'
6.66
28
Hannibal
Hannibal Midfielder
6.68
25
Zeki Amdouni
Zeki Amdouni
Attacker66'
6.62
19
Zian Flemming
Zian Flemming Attacker
6.83
35
Ashley Barnes
Ashley Barnes
Attacker84'
6.59
Referee : Andrew Kitchen

Starting XI ▼

1
José Sá
José Sá Goalkeeper
6.86
4
Santiago Bueno
Santiago Bueno Defender
6.76
15
Yerson Mosquera
Yerson Mosquera Defender
6.76
37
Ladislav Krejci
Ladislav Krejci Defender
6.68
24
Toti
Toti
Defender66'
6.59
6
David Møller Wolfe
David Møller Wolfe Midfielder
6.54
3
Hugo Bueno
Hugo Bueno
Defender74'
6.73
7
André
André Midfielder
6.72
21
Rodrigo Gomes
Rodrigo Gomes Midfielder
6.67
17
Pedro Lima
Pedro Lima
Defender82'
6.4
47
Angel Gomes
Angel Gomes Midfielder
6.7
14
Tolu Arokodare
Tolu Arokodare
Attacker66'
6.69
9
Adam Armstrong
Adam Armstrong Attacker
6.64
50
Jerome Abbey
Jerome Abbey
Midfielder74'
11
Hee-chan Hwang
Hee-chan Hwang Attacker
6.6
36
Mateus Mané
Mateus Mané Attacker
6.77

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ashley Barnes
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90+4'
90+4'
Event
Yerson Mosquera
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Jacob Bruun Larsen → Jaidon Anthony
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Ashley Barnes → Zian Flemming
9th Substitution
84'
82'
Event
Pedro Lima → Rodrigo Gomes
8th Substitution
Event
James Ward-Prowse → Lesley Ugochukwu
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Marcus Edwards → Loum Tchaouna
6th Substitution
75'
74'
Event
Jerome Abbey → Adam Armstrong
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Hugo Bueno → David Møller Wolfe
5th Substitution
Event
Zeki Amdouni → Hannibal
1st Substitution
66'
66'
Event
Tolu Arokodare → Angel Gomes
2nd Substitution
66'
Event
Toti → Ladislav Krejci
3rd Substitution
Event
Zian Flemming
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
47'
1ST-HALF
Event
Hannibal
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
45+9'
41'
Event
Hee-chan Hwang
Off the ball foul / 1st Yellowcard
5'
Event
Adam Armstrong
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
4'
Event
Ladislav Krejci
Penalty awarded

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yerson Mosquera receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ashley Barnes takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Lima takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ashley Barnes receives a yellow card.
89
Attempt Attempt
Mateus Mane takes a left-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Pires Silva takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Bruun Larsen takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
Shot by H. Santiago Ignacio Bueno Sciutto with his right foot is blocked.
84
Update Update
Ashley Barnes comes on for Zian Flemming.
84
Update Update
Jacob Bruun Larsen is on, and Jaidon Anthony is off.
82
Update Update
Pedro Lima replaces Rodrigo Martins Gomes.
81
Update Update
Tolu Arokodare's header is blocked.
79
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Pires Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
77
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Edwards takes a left-footed shot but misses.
76
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Pires Silva takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
75
Update Update
James Ward-Prowse comes on for Chimuanya Ugochukwu.
75
Update Update
Marcus Edwards is on, and Loum Tchaouna is off.
74
Update Update
Hugo Bueno López comes on for David Moller Wolfe.
66
Update Update
Toti Gomes is on, and Ladislav Krejci is off.
66
Update Update
Zeki Amdouni is on, and Hannibal Mejbri is off.
66
Update Update
Tolu Arokodare is on, and Adilson Angel Abreu de Almeida Gomes is off.
63
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Martins Gomes takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Attempt Attempt
Hannibal Mejbri takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
62
Attempt Attempt
Jaidon Anthony takes a right-footed shot but misses.
60
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Pires Silva takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
54
Attempt Attempt
Andre Trindade da Costa Neto takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Hee-Chan Hwang takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Mateus Mane takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Zian Flemming scores with a left-footed shot.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Zian Flemming scores, making it 1-1.
46
Attempt Attempt
Loum Tchaouna takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
45
Update Update
Zian Flemming's header is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jaidon Anthony takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Florentino Ibrain Morris Luis takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hannibal Mejbri receives a yellow card.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hee-Chan Hwang receives a yellow card.
35
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Ignacio Bueno Sciutto takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
35
Attempt Attempt
Ladislav Krejci attempted a header but missed the shot.
34
Update Update
Yerson Mosquera's header is blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Mateus Mane takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
21
Attempt Attempt
Adam Armstrong takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
Chimuanya Ugochukwu takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
14
Attempt Attempt
Mateus Mane takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
10
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Pires Silva has a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Adam Armstrong scores, making it 1-0.
5
Attempt Attempt
Adam Armstrong scores with a right-footed shot.
4
Update Update
VAR decision results in a penalty awarded to Ladislav Krejci.
3
Attempt Attempt
Ladislav Krejci attempts a header but misses the shot.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Burnley 1-1 Wolverhampton Wanderers. Structural assessment: Wolverhampton Wanderers exhibited a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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