Burnley vs Aston Villa Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premier League, England
Premier League
Aston Villa AVLSTANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
Burnley and Aston Villa played out an entertaining 2-2 draw in the Premier League. The halftime score was 1-1, with both teams finding the net once in the first period. Aston Villa, deemed the stronger team, controlled possession at 66% to Burnley's 34%, yet failed to secure victory. Burnley demonstrated resilience, equalizing after the break to earn a point. No red cards were issued, maintaining a full complement of players throughout. The match featured no notable second-half adjustments, allowing the game to flow evenly after the interval. This result represents a moderate structural deviation of 9% favoring Aston Villa, though efficiencies stayed in line. Possession disparity did not translate into a win, highlighting Burnley's defensive solidity and counter-attacking threat against Villa's dominance.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Result exhibited moderate 9% structural deviation favoring Aston Villa.
- Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with expectations.
- xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
- Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market positioning.
- xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable without data.
- Event impact: No impactful events or adjustments altered second-half dynamics.
- Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to match flow.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Match referee
A. Taylor
Other match officials
A. Nunn
2nd Assistant
G. Beswick
1st Assistant
L. Doughty
4th Official
League averages
Premier League Based on last 100 matches


Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Burnley
Aston VillaMovement
Changes since opening
Burnley
Aston VillaTeam Power Ranking
i
64.8
90.67
Burnley
Aston VillaForm Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.


Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Burnley
Aston Villa

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Burnley ⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency 
Defensive Efficiency 
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)




Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Burnley ⚠ Proxy
Burnley Aston Villa
Burnley Aston Villa
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Burnley
Burnley Aston Villa


Burnley Aston Villa


PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- AVL had peak pressure around 44'.
- BUR started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 15 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.


Match Record 
Goals 
Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:03:30+00:00
STARTING XI
Burnley
Aston Villa























































General Information
Next Match

Burnley
vs

Arsenal
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Mon, 18 May - 7:00 PM
Venue: Emirates Stadium

Aston Villa
vs

Liverpool
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Fri, 15 May - 7:00 PM
Venue: Villa Park
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
BurnleyManager ▼

Starting XI ▼
















Substitutes ▼





Bench ▼




Aston VillaManager ▼

Starting XI ▼
















Substitutes ▼





Bench ▼




Events
CONCLUSION
Burnley vs Aston Villa preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
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Match Commentary