Burnley vs AFC Bournemouth Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Turf Moor Sat, 14 Mar - 3:00 PM
Premier League
Burnley BUR
0 – 0
AFC Bournemouth BOU
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 3:00 PM

CONTEXT

The match between Burnley and AFC Bournemouth has officially finished in a 0-0 draw. With AFC Bournemouth entering the fixture as the stronger team and clear favorites, holding a 51.7% pre-match win probability, this result represents a significant deviation from expectations. Burnley had just a 24% chance of victory and a 24.3% probability of a draw, meaning the final goalless outcome ultimately failed to align with the pre-match market. AFC Bournemouth dictated the pace, finishing the game with 62% possession compared to Burnley's 38%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it is not possible to determine whether the outcome was strictly consistent with either side's underlying scoring opportunities. Despite the unexpected draw, the overall efficiency shift for the match remained entirely in line with baselines. The contest was a disciplined affair, with no red cards issued to either team. Without any dismissals to impact the tactical balance or create numerical mismatches, Burnley successfully absorbed the visitors' heavy possession to maintain the 0-0 deadlock until the final whistle.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: AFC Bournemouth showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

P. Bankes

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

N. Davies

1st Assistant

S. Meredith

2nd Assistant

D. Webb

4th Official

Burnley S. Parker
S. Parker
VS
AFC Bournemouth A. Iraola
A. Iraola
0.65
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.25
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Crystal Palace Rank: 87 W
West Ham United Rank: 83 L
Sunderland Rank: 82 L
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 87 D
Liverpool Rank: 95 D
Manchester United Rank: 91 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sunderland Rank: 81 D
West Ham United Rank: 83 D
Everton Rank: 88 W
Aston Villa Rank: 94 D
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: 80 W
Liverpool Rank: 95 W
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 3 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Burnley
23.98%
Draw
24.31%
Away AFC Bournemouth
51.71%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.73
71.83
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Burnley
AFC Bournemouth
Power Score
65.73
71.83
League Position
19
10
Global Rank
64
20

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Burnley — Opponent-weighted form score
AFC Bournemouth — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Burnley AFC Bournemouth

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Burnley

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AFC Bournemouth

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Burnley ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AFC Bournemouth
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
47.63
40.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.00
47.63
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Burnley +0.87 Efficiency Index
vs
AFC Bournemouth -0.87 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Burnley
AFC Bournemouth
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Burnley
vs
AFC Bournemouth
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Burnley AFC Bournemouth
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Burnley AFC Bournemouth
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Burnley
AFC Bournemouth
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Burnley BUR Home
1 matches
AFC Bournemouth BOU Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:00:09+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Dúbravka
Slovakia
1 M. Dúbravka
K. Walker
England
2 (C) K. Walker
B. Humphreys
England
12 B. Humphreys
M. Esteve
Substitution
France
5 M. Esteve
Q. Hartman
Substitution
Netherlands
3 Q. Hartman
J. Laurent
Substitution
England
29 J. Laurent
J. Ward-Prowse
England
20 J. Ward-Prowse
L. Foster
Substitution
South Africa
9 L. Foster
H. Mejbri
Tunisia
28 H. Mejbri
J. Anthony
England
11 J. Anthony
Z. Flemming
Substitution
Netherlands
19 Z. Flemming
Pitch
Đ. Petrović
Serbia
1 Đ. Petrović
A. Truffert
France
3 A. Truffert
M. Senesi
Argentina
5 M. Senesi
J. Hill
England
23 J. Hill
A. Smith
Substitution
England
15 (C) A. Smith
R. Christie
Substitution
Scotland
10 R. Christie
A. Scott
England
8 A. Scott
R. Rocha
Substitution
Brazil
37 R. Rocha
E. Kroupi
Substitution
France
22 E. Kroupi
M. Tavernier
England
16 M. Tavernier
F. de Lima Barbosa
Brazil
9 F. de Lima Barbosa

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 14, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England
Stadium :
Turf Moor
Capacity :
22546
Attendance :
20281
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Neil Davies
Steve Meredith
David Webb
Peter Bankes

Statistics

Possession
BUR
43%
BOU
57%

Top Statistics

3 Big Chances Created 3
3 Shots 8
62 Dangerous attacks 56
38 Possession 62
5 Corners 8
5 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

1 Hit Woodwork 1
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
17 Goal Kicks 8
7 Successful Dribbles 10
34 Throwins 18
78 Ball Safe 76
15 Dribble Attempts 18
19 Successful Headers 22
8 Goal Attempts 11
5 Substitutions 4
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

98 Attacks 106
3 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 28
283 Passes 471
199 Successful Passes 377
70 Successful Passes Percentage 80
57 Long Passes 54
10 Key Passes 16
23 Successful Long Passes 15

Defensive

2 Saves 2
3 Interceptions 11
13 Tackles 20
45 Duels Won 63

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 26
6 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
11 Fouls 5

Lineup

Referee : Peter Bankes

Starting XI ▼

1
Martin Dúbravka
Martin Dúbravka Goalkeeper
7.03
2
Kyle Walker
Kyle Walker (C) Defender
7.15
3
Quilindschy Hartman
Quilindschy Hartman Defender
6.76
23
Lucas Pires
Lucas Pires
Defender74'
6.41
5
Maxime Estève
Maxime Estève Defender
6.61
4
Joe Worrall
Joe Worrall
Defender74'
6.71
12
Bashir Humphreys
Bashir Humphreys Defender
7.53
9
Lyle Foster
Lyle Foster Midfielder
5.89
10
Marcus Edwards
Marcus Edwards
Attacker66'
6.55
11
Jaidon Anthony
Jaidon Anthony Midfielder
7.08
20
James Ward-Prowse
James Ward-Prowse Midfielder
7.58
28
Hannibal
Hannibal Midfielder
6.43
29
Josh Laurent
Josh Laurent Midfielder
7.01
8
Lesley Ugochukwu
Lesley Ugochukwu
Midfielder88'
19
Zian Flemming
Zian Flemming Attacker
6.73
27
Armando Broja
Armando Broja
Attacker88'
Referee : Peter Bankes

Starting XI ▼

1
Djordje Petrovic
Djordje Petrovic Goalkeeper
7.02
3
Adrien Truffert
Adrien Truffert Defender
7.59
5
Marcos Senesi
Marcos Senesi Defender
7.7
15
Adam Smith
Adam Smith (C) Defender
7.49
20
Álex Jiménez
Álex Jiménez
Defender61'
6.76
23
James Hill
James Hill Defender
7.52
8
Alex Scott
Alex Scott Midfielder
7.7
10
Ryan Christie
Ryan Christie Midfielder
6.63
21
Amine Adli
Amine Adli
Attacker61'
6.65
16
Marcus Tavernier
Marcus Tavernier Midfielder
7.79
22
Eli Kroupi
Eli Kroupi Midfielder
7.3
7
David Brooks
David Brooks
Midfielder80'
6.6
37
Rayan
Rayan Midfielder
6.56
26
Enes Ünal
Enes Ünal
Attacker87'
6.2
9
Evanilson
Evanilson Attacker
6.79

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Armando Broja → Zian Flemming
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Lesley Ugochukwu → Josh Laurent
9th Substitution
88'
87'
Event
Enes Ünal → Rayan
7th Substitution
80'
Event
David Brooks → Eli Kroupi
6th Substitution
Event
Hannibal
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
75'
Event
Lucas Pires → Quilindschy Hartman
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Joe Worrall → Maxime Estève
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Marcus Edwards → Lyle Foster
3rd Substitution
66'
61'
Event
Álex Jiménez → Adam Smith
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Amine Adli → Ryan Christie
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 8 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Enes Ünal from Bournemouth attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at Burnley 0, Bournemouth 0.
90
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. David Brooks from Bournemouth attempted a header from close range but failed to convert.
88
Update Update
Alex Scott from Bournemouth has been awarded a free kick in their defensive area.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Armando Broja replaces Zian Flemming.
88
Update Update
Bashir Humphreys from Burnley committed a foul.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Lesley Ugochukwu comes on to replace Josh Laurent.
87
Update Update
Alex Scott committed a foul against Bournemouth.
87
Update Update
Jaidon Anthony from Burnley has been awarded a free kick on the right flank.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bournemouth: Enes Ünal comes on to replace Rayan.
82
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Hannibal Mejbri from Burnley attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bournemouth: David Brooks comes on to replace Junior Kroupi.
79
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Amine Adli from Bournemouth tried to score with his left foot from outside the penalty area, but his shot was blocked. The assist came from Junior Kroupi.
77
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Marcus Edwards from Burnley takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Jaidon Anthony.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hannibal Mejbri of Burnley has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
75
Update Update
Hannibal Mejbri commits a foul on a Burnley player.
75
Update Update
Adrien Truffert from Bournemouth has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Lucas Pires comes on to replace Quilindschy Hartman.
74
Corner Corner
Opportunity gone begging! James Hill from Bournemouth heads the ball from close range, but it goes over the bar and to the left. The cross was delivered by Marcus Tavernier following a corner kick.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Joe Worrall comes on to replace Maxime Estève, who has sustained an injury.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bournemouth after Jaidon Anthony allowed the ball to go out.
71
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push here. Evanilson from Bournemouth takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's saved.
70
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
68
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Maxime Estève from Burnley.
67
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Evanilson from Bournemouth took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Álex Jiménez, who delivered a cross.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Marcus Edwards replaces Lyle Foster.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bournemouth after James Ward-Prowse allowed the ball to go out.
65
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Rayan from Bournemouth takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Marcus Tavernier.
63
Update Update
Opportunity wasted! Evanilson from Bournemouth attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area, but it went wide. The cross was provided by Adrien Truffert.
63
Attempt Attempt
Evanilson from Bournemouth attempts a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's deflected away.
63
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Marcus Tavernier from Bournemouth takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bournemouth: Amine Adli comes on to replace Ryan Christie.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bournemouth: Álex Jiménez comes on in place of Adam Smith.
60
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Hannibal Mejbri from Burnley takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Burnley after Ryan Christie allowed the ball to go out.
57
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Zian Flemming of Burnley attempted a header from close range but failed to convert.
56
Update Update
James Hill from Bournemouth committed a foul.
56
Update Update
Josh Laurent from Burnley earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
54
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Tavernier from Bournemouth takes a shot with his left foot from outside the penalty area, but it strikes the left post. The assist came from Junior Kroupi.
53
Update Update
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Zian Flemming from Burnley heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully defended. The assist came from Hannibal Mejbri, who delivered a cross.
53
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Tavernier from Bournemouth strikes the crossbar with a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
50
Update Update
Opportunity wasted! Marcos Senesi from Bournemouth had a header from within the six-yard box, aiming for the left side, but it went just wide of the target. The assist came from James Hill.
49
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Alex Scott from Bournemouth takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Adam Smith.
49
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Bournemouth after Zian Flemming allowed the ball to go out of play.
49
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Junior Kroupi of Bournemouth takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bournemouth after Kyle Walker allowed the ball to go out.
46
Update Update
Offside call against Burnley. Hannibal Mejbri has been caught offside.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Evanilson of Bournemouth attempted a header from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The cross was delivered by Adam Smith.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Burnley 0, Bournemouth 0.
44
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Marcus Tavernier from Bournemouth takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
44
Update Update
Zian Flemming committed a foul on a Burnley player.
43
Corner Corner
Jaidon Anthony from Burnley strikes the crossbar with a right-footed shot taken from the right side of the six-yard box following a corner kick.
43
Update Update
Alex Scott from Bournemouth has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
42
Update Update
Marcos Senesi from Bournemouth has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
41
Update Update
Zian Flemming committed a foul against Burnley.
40
Update Update
Offside call against Bournemouth. Ryan Christie has been caught offside.
40
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Ryan Christie from Bournemouth heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Adrien Truffert.
38
Update Update
Kyle Walker committed a foul on a Burnley player.
38
Update Update
Rayan from Bournemouth was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
38
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Alex Scott from Bournemouth took a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, narrowly missing the target. The assist came from Marcos Senesi.
33
Update Update
Hannibal Mejbri committed a foul against Burnley.
33
Update Update
Alex Scott from Bournemouth has been awarded a free kick in their defensive area.
29
Update Update
Adam Smith from Bournemouth has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
29
Update Update
Josh Laurent committed a foul against Burnley.
28
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Bashir Humphreys from Burnley fired a left-footed shot from within the six-yard area, but it was blocked on the left side. The assist came from James Ward-Prowse, who delivered a cross.
28
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Burnley after Alex Scott allowed the ball to go out.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Burnley after a deflection off Marcos Senesi.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Burnley after a defensive play by Marcos Senesi.
25
Update Update
Quilindschy Hartman of Burnley earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
25
Update Update
Quilindschy Hartman from Burnley has been awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
25
Update Update
Adam Smith from Bournemouth committed a foul.
24
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Bashir Humphreys from Burnley heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jaidon Anthony from Burnley fires a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Burnley after Djordje Petrovic allowed the ball to go out.
23
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Jaidon Anthony of Burnley takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area. Djordje Petrovic of Bournemouth makes a fantastic save, denying the attempt in the top right corner. The assist came from Bashir Humphreys.
22
Update Update
Kyle Walker from Burnley earned a free kick on the right flank.
22
Update Update
Rayan from Bournemouth committed a foul.
21
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Marcus Tavernier from Bournemouth takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
15
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ryan Christie from Bournemouth takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
15
Update Update
Alex Scott committed a foul for Bournemouth.
15
Update Update
Hannibal Mejbri from Burnley has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
14
Corner Corner
Another offensive push. Zian Flemming from Burnley takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Djordje Petrovic from Bournemouth makes a save in the bottom left corner. The assist came from Kyle Walker.
11
Update Update
Quilindschy Hartman from Burnley committed a foul.
11
Update Update
Marcus Tavernier from Bournemouth was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
10
Update Update
Josh Laurent committed a foul against Burnley.
10
Update Update
Ryan Christie from Bournemouth earned a free kick in an offensive position.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bournemouth after Maxime Estève allowed the ball to go out.
7
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. James Hill from Bournemouth attempted a header from within the six-yard box, aiming for the left side, but it narrowly missed the top left corner. The assist came from Marcus Tavernier, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
5
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Junior Kroupi from Bournemouth attempts a right-footed strike from the right side of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bournemouth after Kyle Walker allowed the ball to go out.
4
Update Update
Zian Flemming committed a foul against Burnley.
4
Update Update
Marcus Tavernier from Bournemouth earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
3
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Junior Kroupi from Bournemouth takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Rayan, who delivered a cross.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bournemouth after Zian Flemming allowed the ball to go out of play.
2
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Jaidon Anthony from Burnley attempted a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area.
2
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Evanilson from Bournemouth fires a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Junior Kroupi, who delivered a precise through ball.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bournemouth after Bashir Humphreys allowed the ball to go out.
1
Update Update
Kyle Walker committed a foul on a Burnley player.
1
Update Update
Alex Scott from Bournemouth has been awarded a free kick in their defensive half.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: AFC Bournemouth exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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