Burgos vs Sporting Gijón Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain

Estadio Municipal de El Plantío Sat, 11 Apr - 2:15 PM

La Liga 2

Burgos BUR

Sporting Gijón SPO

Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 2:15 PM

Round 35 Regular Season

Fer Niño - 90+1'

CONTEXT

The match between Burgos and Sporting Gijón is finished, ending 1-0 to the home side. After a goalless first half, Burgos secured the only goal of the game in the second period to claim all three points. Burgos entered as the stronger team and the clear pre-match favorite, with expectations heavily tilted in their favor. The result showed only minimal deviation from those projections and came with a 4.8 percent variance centered on the home side. Possession was closely contested throughout, finishing 48 percent for Burgos and 52 percent for Sporting Gijón, while no xG data was recorded. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations and the outcome aligned fully with the pre-match projection. No red cards were shown to either team, leaving the result to be decided purely by on-field performance without major disciplinary impact.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Burgos showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

C. Muñiz Muñoz

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Estela Bravo

1st Assistant

A. Ramo Andrés

4th Official

B. García Valín

2nd Assistant

L. Ramis Monfort

B. Jiménez Sáez

1.73

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.54

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

2 - 3 - 4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Burgos

95.23%

Draw

4.58%

Sporting Gijón

0.19%

Team Power Ranking

32.5

25.53

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Burgos

Sporting Gijón

Power Score

32.5

25.53

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Burgos — Opponent-weighted form score

Sporting Gijón — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Burgos Sporting Gijón

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Burgos

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Sporting Gijón

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Burgos ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Sporting Gijón

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

25.00

27.40

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

27.40

25.00

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Burgos -0.24 Efficiency Index

Sporting Gijón +0.24 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Burgos

Sporting Gijón

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Burgos ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Sporting Gijón

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Burgos Sporting Gijón

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Burgos Sporting Gijón

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Burgos

Sporting Gijón

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Burgos

Sporting Gijón

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Burgos Sporting Gijón

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Burgos Sporting Gijón

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Burgos

Sporting Gijón

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

SPO had peak pressure around 68'.
SPO started the game with stronger pressure.

BUR Pressure SPO Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: SPO reached the top pressure at 68' (78.36).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Burgos BUR Home

9 matches

Sporting Gijón SPO Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-4

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:08:32+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

13 A. Cantero Armendáriz

2 A. Lizancos Saldaña

3 O. Luengo Redondo

8 G. Sierra Pérez

12 F. Miguel

23 I. Ruiz

5 M. Atienza Villa

14 D. Gonzalez Ballesteros

16 F. Sánchez Rodríguez

21 I. Córdoba Kerejeta

9 F. Niño Rodriguez

1 O. Yáñez Alabart

12 B. Oliván Herrero

5 D. Sánchez Pérez

15 P. Vázquez Pérez

2 G. Rosas Alonso

14 A. Corredera Alardi

24 J. Smith

7 G. Campos Ansó Fernández

10 C. Gelabert Pina

17 J. Dubasin

19 J. Otero Tovar

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 11, 2026, 02:15 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 35 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Capacity :

12194

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Fernando Estela Bravo

A. Ramo Andrés

Carlos Muñiz Muñoz

Brais García Valín

Statistics

Possession

BUR

48%

SPO

52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0

1 Big Chances Created 0

3 Shots 7

40 Dangerous attacks 65

48 Possession 52

2 Corners 4

12 Free kicks 12

3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

59 Ball Safe 60

20 Dribble Attempts 14

11 Successful Dribbles 6

55 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43

26 Throwins 21

9 Goal Kicks 5

0 Injuries 2

4 Substitutions 3

6 Goal Attempts 8

0 Hit Woodwork 1

1 Assists 0

Attacking

101 Attacks 114

1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

349 Successful Passes 396

70 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51

5 Key Passes 9

39 Successful Long Passes 27

427 Passes 468

82 Successful Passes Percentage 85

56 Long Passes 53

Defensive

16 Tackles 21

3 Interceptions 15

0 Saves 3

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 16

2 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

1 Offsides 2

12 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Carlos Muñiz Muñoz

Manager ▼

L. Ramis Monfort Coach

Starting XI ▼

Ander Cantero Goalkeeper

Álex Lizancos Defender

Oier Luengo Defender

Sergio González

Defender75'

Grego Sierra Defender

Florian Miguel Defender

Miguel Atienza Midfielder

David González Midfielder

Víctor Mollejo

Attacker74'

Curro Sánchez Midfielder

Mario González

Attacker86'

Iñigo Córdoba Midfielder

Kévin Appin

Midfielder60'

Iván Morante Midfielder

Fer Niño Attacker

Substitutes ▼

Kévin Appin

Midfielder60'

Víctor Mollejo

Attacker74'

Sergio González

Defender75'

Mario González

Attacker86'

Bench ▼

Jesús Ruiz Goalkeeper

Aitor Buñuel Defender

Brais Martínez Defender

Pablo Galdames Midfielder

Saúl del Cerro Midfielder

Fermín García Midfielder

Marcelo Expósito Midfielder

Mateo Mejía Attacker

Referee : Carlos Muñiz Muñoz