Burgos vs Almería Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal de El Plantío Sat, 9 May - 2:15 PM
La Liga 2
Burgos BUR
0 – 0
Almería ALM
Full Time Sat, 9 May 2:15 PM
Round 39 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In a hard-fought La Liga 2 encounter at Estadio El Plantío, Burgos and Almería battled to a 0-0 draw, with neither side able to find the net despite sustained pressure. Burgos controlled 54% of possession compared to Almería's 46%, creating chances but lacking clinical finishing, while Almería's defense repelled attacks effectively. The halftime score stood at 0-0, reflecting the even nature of the first period. Deemed the stronger team pre-match, Almería's failure to secure victory marked a significant structural deviation of 70.7%. No red cards disrupted play, and no major second-half adjustments altered the flow. Both goalkeepers earned praise for key saves, ensuring a clean sheet apiece in a match defined by resilience and tactical discipline.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Significant structural deviation of 70.7% favored Almería.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment not achieved in the draw outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No events like red cards or adjustments impacted proceedings.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, avoiding any game distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Lax Franco

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

E. García Arriola

4th Official

Spain

C. Grande Rabadán

1st Assistant

Spain

R. Landrove Lago

2nd Assistant

Spain

League averages

La Liga 2 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.19
Yellow cards / match 4.73
Red cards / match 0.27
Penalties / match 0.33
Burgos L. Ramis Monfort
L. Ramis Monfort
VS
Almería J. Ferrer Sicilia
J. Ferrer Sicilia
1.58
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.85
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Sociedad II Rank: 59 D
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 68 D
Castellón Rank: 66 L
Sporting Gijón Rank: 63 W
Albacete Rank: 67 W
Ceuta Rank: 62 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mirandés Rank: 60 W
Granada Rank: 64 W
Málaga Rank: 68 W
Racing Santander Rank: 71 L
Leganés Rank: 64 W
Castellón Rank: 68 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Burgos
37.89%
Draw
29.28%
Away Almería
32.83%

Movement

Changes since opening
Burgos
+31.72%
Draw
-59.68%
Almería
+27.96%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.62
71.07
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Burgos
Almería
Power Score
67.62
71.07
League Position
7
2
Global Rank
263
187

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Burgos — Opponent-weighted form score
Almería — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Burgos Almería

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Burgos

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Almería

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Burgos ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Almería
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
41.48
47.17
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
47.17
41.48
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Burgos -0.58 Efficiency Index
vs
Almería +0.58 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Burgos
Almería
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Burgos ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Almería
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Burgos Almería
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Burgos Almería
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Burgos
Almería
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Burgos
vs
Almería
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Burgos Almería
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Burgos 0.42
Almería 0.59
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Burgos Almería
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Burgos 0.00
Almería 0.00
Burgos
Almería
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BUR had peak pressure around 35'.
  • BUR started the game with stronger pressure.
BUR Pressure ALM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BUR reached the top pressure at 35' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Burgos BUR Home
5 matches
Almería ALM Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
0
Draws
0
3
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
5
-3
Goal Difference
+3

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:03:19+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Cantero Armendáriz
Spain
13 A. Cantero Armendáriz
A. Lizancos Saldaña
Spain
2 A. Lizancos Saldaña
S. González Martínez
Spain
6 S. González Martínez
G. Sierra Pérez
Spain
8 G. Sierra Pérez
F. Miguel
France
12 F. Miguel
V. Mollejo Carpintero
Substitution
Spain
11 V. Mollejo Carpintero
I. Ruiz
Spain
23 I. Ruiz
M. Atienza Villa
Spain
5 M. Atienza Villa
I. Córdoba Kerejeta
Substitution
Spain
21 I. Córdoba Kerejeta
F. Niño Rodriguez
Spain
9 F. Niño Rodriguez
F. Sánchez Rodríguez
Substitution
Spain
16 F. Sánchez Rodríguez
Pitch
A. Fernández Moreno
Spain
1 A. Fernández Moreno
A. Muñoz Miguel
Spain
3 A. Muñoz Miguel
F. Bonini
Italy
18 F. Bonini
R. Ely
Brazil
5 R. Ely
M. Ruiz
Substitution
Spain
16 M. Ruiz
S. Dzodic
Serbia
29 S. Dzodic
D. Lopy
Senegal
17 D. Lopy
A. Embarba Blázquez
Substitution
Spain
23 A. Embarba Blázquez
S. Arribas Calvo
Substitution
Spain
11 S. Arribas Calvo
L. Carrilho Baptistão
Substitution
Brazil
12 L. Carrilho Baptistão
M. De la Fuente Escudero
Substitution
Spain
24 M. De la Fuente Escudero

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 02:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 39 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio Municipal de El Plantío
Capacity :
12194
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Salvador Lax Franco
E. García Arriola
Carlos Grande Rabadán
Ricardo Landrove Lago

Statistics

Possession
BUR
53%
ALM
47%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 2
20 Shots 20
48 Dangerous attacks 34
54 Possession 46
10 Corners 4
9 Free kicks 7
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
20 Throwins 25
5 Successful Dribbles 10
15 Goal Kicks 13
15 Dribble Attempts 19
0 Hit Woodwork 1
0 Injuries 1
4 Substitutions 5
61 Ball Safe 43
12 Goal Attempts 9

Attacking

89 Attacks 81
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

328 Successful Passes 268
411 Passes 346
80 Successful Passes Percentage 77
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48
61 Long Passes 54
30 Successful Long Passes 26
15 Key Passes 14

Defensive

16 Tackles 12
17 Interceptions 10
39 Duels Won 51
4 Saves 5

Build-up

31 Total Crosses 19
12 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

7 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Salvador Lax Franco

Starting XI ▼

13
Ander Cantero
Ander Cantero Goalkeeper
2
Álex Lizancos
Álex Lizancos Defender
6
Sergio González
Sergio González Defender
8
Grego Sierra
Grego Sierra Defender
12
Florian Miguel
Florian Miguel Defender
5
Miguel Atienza
Miguel Atienza Midfielder
11
Víctor Mollejo
Víctor Mollejo Midfielder
10
Kévin Appin
Kévin Appin
Midfielder74'
21
Iñigo Córdoba
Iñigo Córdoba Midfielder
14
David González
David González
Midfielder81'
23
Iván Morante
Iván Morante Midfielder
9
Fer Niño
Fer Niño Attacker
16
Curro Sánchez
Curro Sánchez Attacker
20
Mario González
Mario González
Attacker74'
Referee : Salvador Lax Franco

Starting XI ▼

1
Andrés Fernández
Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper
3
Álex Muñoz
Álex Muñoz Defender
5
Rodrigo Ely
Rodrigo Ely Defender
16
Marcos Luna
Marcos Luna Defender
22
Daijiro Chirino
Daijiro Chirino
Defender90'
18
Federico Bonini
Federico Bonini Defender
11
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Midfielder
10
Nico Melamed
Nico Melamed
Midfielder80'
12
Léo Baptistão
Léo Baptistão Midfielder
2
Arnau Puigmal
Arnau Puigmal
Midfielder90'
17
Dion Lopy
Dion Lopy Midfielder
23
Adrián Embarba
Adrián Embarba Midfielder
7
Jon Morcillo
Jon Morcillo
Attacker62'
29
Stefan Dzodic
Stefan Dzodic Midfielder
24
Miguel de la Fuente
Miguel de la Fuente Attacker
9
Thalys
Thalys
Attacker80'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mateo Mejía → Mario González
9th Substitution
90+6'
90'
Event
Arnau Puigmal → Léo Baptistão
8th Substitution
90'
Event
Daijiro Chirino → Marcos Luna
7th Substitution
Event
David González → Iñigo Córdoba
6th Substitution
81'
80'
Event
Thalys → Miguel de la Fuente
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Nico Melamed → Sergio Arribas
4th Substitution
Event
Mario Cantero
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
76'
Event
Kévin Appin → Víctor Mollejo
2nd Substitution
74'
Event
Mario González → Curro Sánchez
3rd Substitution
74'
Event
Ander Cantero
6th Yellowcard
73'
Event
Víctor Mollejo
Penalty cancelled
70'
62'
Event
Jon Morcillo → Adrián Embarba
1st Substitution
59'
Event
Léo Baptistão
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
54'
Event
Dion Lopy
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Álex Muñoz
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
29'
Event
Miguel de la Fuente
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Miguel Atienza
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
19'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Melamed Ribaudo takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Florian Miguel takes a header shot but misses.
90
Update Update
Daijiro Chirino is on, and Marcos Luna is off.
90
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Melamed Ribaudo takes a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
90
Update Update
Arnau Puigmal comes on for Leonardo Carrilho Baptistao.
90
Update Update
Mateo Mejia comes on for Mario Gonzalez Gutier.
90
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Ely attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Morante Ruiz takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
89
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Appin takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Mario Gonzalez Gutier has a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
87
Attempt Attempt
David Gonzalez Ballesteros takes a left-footed shot but misses.
87
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Carrilho Baptistao takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
85
Attempt Attempt
Jon Morcillo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
84
Attempt Attempt
Fernando Nino's right-footed shot is blocked.
83
Attempt Attempt
David Gonzalez Ballesteros takes a left-footed shot but misses.
83
Attempt Attempt
Florian Miguel takes a left-footed shot but misses.
82
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Ely attempts a header but misses the shot.
82
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Ely takes a header but misses the shot.
82
Attempt Attempt
Jon Morcillo takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Mario Gonzalez Gutier comes on for Iago Cordoba Kerejeta.
80
Update Update
Thalys Gomes De Araujo is on, and Miguel De la Fuente is off.
80
Update Update
Nicolas Melamed Ribaudo comes on for Sergio Arribas Calvo.
74
Substitution Substitution
Mario Gonzalez Gutier is substituted off for Francisco Jose Sanchez Rodriguez. Curro comes on.
74
Update Update
Kevin Appin replaces Victor Mollejo Carpintero.
73
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ander Cantero receives a yellow card.
70
Update Update
VAR decision confirms no penalty for Victor Mollejo Carpintero.
68
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Gonzalez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
68
Attempt Attempt
Victor Mollejo Carpintero attempts a header but misses the shot.
66
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Carrilho Baptistao takes a right-footed shot but misses.
65
Attempt Attempt
Stefan Džodić takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
62
Update Update
Jon Morcillo replaces Adrian Embarba.
55
Attempt Attempt
Francisco Jose Sanchez Rodriguez takes a shot with his left foot, but it misses.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dion Lopy receives a yellow card.
51
Attempt Attempt
Dion Lopy takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
50
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Embarba takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
49
Update Update
Sergio Arribas Calvo attempts a header but misses the target.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alex Munoz receives a yellow card.
43
Attempt Attempt
Fernando Nino takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Miguel De la Fuente takes a right-footed shot but misses.
35
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Luna takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Florian Miguel takes a left-footed shot but misses.
31
Attempt Attempt
Victor Mollejo Carpintero takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
31
Attempt Attempt
Victor Mollejo Carpintero takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Morante Ruiz takes a right-footed shot but misses.
30
Attempt Attempt
Florian Miguel takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
29
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Miguel De la Fuente receives a yellow card.
27
Attempt Attempt
Fernando Nino takes a left-footed shot but misses.
26
Attempt Attempt
Miguel De la Fuente takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Embarba takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
23
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Arribas Calvo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Arribas Calvo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Fernando Nino's header is saved.
19
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Miguel Atienza.
12
Attempt Attempt
Miguel De la Fuente takes a right-footed shot but misses.
2
Attempt Attempt
Fernando Nino takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Salvador Lax Franco.

CONCLUSION

The 0-0 draw encapsulates a tale of staunch defenses and squandered opportunities, with Burgos' home possession edge neutralizing Almería's superior pre-match status. This result, a notable deviation for the visitors, underscores the hosts' grit in holding firm without conceding. Absent xG insights, possession stats and lack of disruptions highlight a balanced affair. For league standings, the point aids Burgos' survival bid while stalling Almería's momentum, potentially influencing future fixtures in a competitive division where such stalemates prove valuable.

Burgos vs Almería preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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