Bristol City vs Stoke City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Ashton Gate Stadium Sat, 2 May - 11:30 AM
Championship
Bristol City BSC
2 Winner 0
Stoke City STK
Full Time Sat, 2 May 11:30 AM
Round 46 Regular Season
Sam Bell - 88'
Delano Burgzorg - 1'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Bristol City claimed a solid 2-0 win against Stoke City in a match that highlighted their clinical edge. The home side struck first in the opening half, leading 1-0 at halftime, and added a second goal after the break to seal the victory. Despite Stoke City holding 54% possession compared to Bristol's 46%, the Robins converted their chances effectively while keeping a clean sheet. Identified as the stronger team pre-match, Bristol City delivered on that promise without any disruptions from red cards or major tactical shifts. This result marks a significant structural deviation of 51.3% in their favor, underscoring their dominance beyond surface stats. Stoke struggled to break through, unable to capitalize on their territorial advantage. Bristol's defense stood firm, repelling waves of pressure, while their attackers timed runs perfectly for the decisive strikes. The game flowed steadily, with no knockout tie or second-half adjustments altering the narrative.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed significant 51.3% structural deviation favoring Bristol City.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable from missing metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events impacted proceedings.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards produced no distortion in match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Toner

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Brown

1st Assistant

N. Lugg

2nd Assistant

S. Mather

4th Official

Bristol City R. Hodgson
R. Hodgson
VS
Stoke City M. Robins
M. Robins
1.16
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.97
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Birmingham City Rank: 70 L
Southampton Rank: 78 D
Norwich City Rank: 71 L
Queens Park Rangers Rank: 67 D
Sheffield United Rank: 70 W
Charlton Athletic Rank: 65 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Portsmouth Rank: 67 L
Millwall Rank: 75 L
Wrexham Rank: 71 L
Blackburn Rovers Rank: 67 D
Derby County Rank: 70 L
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: 54 W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 2 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Bristol City
48.67%
Draw
25.38%
Away Stoke City
25.96%

Movement

Changes since opening
Bristol City
-49.22%
Draw
+23.46%
Stoke City
+25.76%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.13
63.62
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Bristol City
Stoke City
Power Score
69.13
63.62
League Position
12
17
Global Rank
224
372

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Bristol City — Opponent-weighted form score
Stoke City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Bristol City Stoke City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Bristol City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Stoke City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Bristol City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Stoke City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.98
34.91
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.91
30.98
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Bristol City -0.40 Efficiency Index
vs
Stoke City +0.40 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Bristol City
Stoke City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Bristol City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Stoke City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Bristol City Stoke City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Bristol City Stoke City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Bristol City
Stoke City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Bristol City
vs
Stoke City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Bristol City Stoke City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Bristol City 0.52
Stoke City 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Bristol City Stoke City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Bristol City 0.00
Stoke City 0.08
Bristol City
Stoke City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BSC had peak pressure around 62'.
  • STK started the game with stronger pressure.
BSC Pressure STK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BSC reached the top pressure at 62' (77.40).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Bristol City BSC Home
18 matches
Stoke City STK Away
Match Record
9
Wins
7
2
Draws
2
7
Losses
9
Goals
23
Goals Scored
24
24
Goals Conceded
23
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:01:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
R. Vítek
Czech Republic
23 R. Vítek
R. McCrorie
Scotland
2 R. McCrorie
N. Eile
Sweden
38 N. Eile
R. Dickie
England
16 R. Dickie
V. Borges dos Santos Neto
Brazil
21 V. Borges dos Santos Neto
A. Randell
England
4 A. Randell
S. Morsy
Substitution
Egypt
40 S. Morsy
J. Knight
Republic of Ireland
12 J. Knight
T. Horvat
Substitution
Slovenia
14 T. Horvat
S. Twine
England
10 S. Twine
D. Burgzorg
Substitution
Netherlands
11 D. Burgzorg
Pitch
V. Johansson
Sweden
1 V. Johansson
E. Bocat
France
17 E. Bocat
B. Gibson
England
23 B. Gibson
A. Phillips
England
26 A. Phillips
J. Tchamadeu
Substitution
Cameroon
22 J. Tchamadeu
B. Pearson
Substitution
England
4 B. Pearson
S. Nzonzi
France
15 S. Nzonzi
S. Thomas
Wales
7 S. Thomas
J. Bae
Substitution
South Korea
10 J. Bae
M. Manhoef
Substitution
Netherlands
42 M. Manhoef
L. Cisse
Substitution
France
29 L. Cisse

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 46 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Ashton Gate Stadium
Capacity :
1500
Attendance :
24671
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ben Toner
Connor Brown
Nigel Lugg
Simon Mather

Statistics

Possession
BSC
46%
STK
54%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 1
1 Shots 9
25 Dangerous attacks 57
46 Possession 54
2 Corners 15
13 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

1 Assists 0
3 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 0
11 Goal Attempts 7
88 Ball Safe 72
11 Successful Headers 13
4 Goal Kicks 7
4 Successful Dribbles 5
57 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
7 Dribble Attempts 20
14 Throwins 17
1 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

56 Attacks 101
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

81 Successful Passes Percentage 87
399 Passes 453
47 Long Passes 36
12 Successful Long Passes 19
322 Successful Passes 392
26 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53
9 Key Passes 12

Defensive

9 Interceptions 7
2 Saves 3
43 Duels Won 35
17 Tackles 11

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 27
6 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

7 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Ben Toner

Starting XI ▼

23
Radek Vitek
Radek Vitek Goalkeeper
6.91
2
Ross McCrorie
Ross McCrorie Defender
6.84
16
Rob Dickie
Rob Dickie Defender
6.93
21
Neto Borges
Neto Borges Defender
6.45
38
Noah Eile
Noah Eile Defender
6.77
4
Adam Randell
Adam Randell Midfielder
6.92
10
Scott Twine
Scott Twine Midfielder
7.1
12
Jason Knight
Jason Knight Midfielder
6.77
14
Tomi Horvat
Tomi Horvat Midfielder
6.97
20
Sam Bell
Sam Bell
Attacker81'
6.76
40
Sam Morsy
Sam Morsy Midfielder
6.69
17
Mark Sykes
Mark Sykes
Midfielder74'
6.71
11
Delano Burgzorg
Delano Burgzorg Attacker
6.73
18
Emil Riis
Emil Riis
Attacker84'
6.73
Referee : Ben Toner

Starting XI ▼

1
Viktor Johansson
Viktor Johansson Goalkeeper
7.07
17
Eric-Junior Bocat
Eric-Junior Bocat Defender
6.66
22
Junior Tchamadeu
Junior Tchamadeu Defender
6.82
50
Syd Agina
Syd Agina
Midfielder71'
6.29
23
Ben Gibson
Ben Gibson Defender
6.76
26
Ashley Phillips
Ashley Phillips Defender
6.79
4
Ben Pearson
Ben Pearson Midfielder
6.62
12
Tatsuki Seko
Tatsuki Seko
Midfielder46'
6.68
7
Sorba Thomas
Sorba Thomas Midfielder
6.98
10
Jun-ho Bae
Jun-ho Bae Midfielder
6.76
21
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
Attacker59'
6.78
15
Steven​ N'Zonzi
Steven​ N'Zonzi Midfielder
6.71
42
Million Manhoef
Million Manhoef Midfielder
6.74
49
Milan Smit
Milan Smit
Attacker87'
6.63
29
Lamine Cissé
Lamine Cissé Attacker
6.8
20
Sam Gallagher
Sam Gallagher
Attacker59'
6.78

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
Simulation / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Sam Bell
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
88'
87'
Event
Milan Smit → Million Manhoef
8th Substitution
Event
Emil Riis → Delano Burgzorg
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Sam Bell → Tomi Horvat
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Mark Sykes → Sam Morsy
5th Substitution
74'
71'
Event
Syd Agina → Junior Tchamadeu
4th Substitution
Event
Ross McCrorie
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
63'
60'
Event
Junior Tchamadeu
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
Event
Sam Gallagher → Lamine Cissé
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi → Jun-ho Bae
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Tatsuki Seko → Ben Pearson
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
35'
Event
Ben Pearson
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Delano Burgzorg
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
1'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Steven Nzonzi's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jesurun Rak Sakyi receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jesurun Rak Sakyi takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Milan Smit's left-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tatsuki Seko's right-footed shot is blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Eric Bocat's left-footed shot is blocked.
88
Update Update
Goal! Sam Bell scores, making it 2-0.
88
Attempt Attempt
Robert Dickie attempts a header but misses the shot.
88
Attempt Attempt
Sam Bell takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
87
Attempt Attempt
Scott Twine takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
87
Update Update
Milan Smit comes on for Million Manhoef.
84
Update Update
Emil Ris Jakobsen is on, and Delano Burgzorg is off.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Sam Bell comes on for Tomi Horvat.
79
Attempt Attempt
Sam Gallagher takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
77
Attempt Attempt
Eric Bocat takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
75
Attempt Attempt
Million Manhoef takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
74
Update Update
Mark Sykes replaces Sam Morsy.
71
Update Update
Sydney Agina replaces Junior Tchamadeu.
70
Attempt Attempt
Scott Twine takes a right-footed shot but misses.
67
Attempt Attempt
Million Manhoef takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
67
Attempt Attempt
Eric Bocat takes a left-footed shot but misses.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ross McCrorie receives a yellow card.
62
Attempt Attempt
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Junior Tchamadeu receives a yellow card.
59
Update Update
Jesurun Rak Sakyi is on, and Bae Jun Ho is off.
59
Attempt Attempt
Adam Randell takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Sam Gallagher comes on for Lamine Cisse.
58
Attempt Attempt
Jason Knight takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
58
Attempt Attempt
Tomi Horvat takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
55
Update Update
Robert Dickie attempts a header but misses the target.
46
Update Update
Tatsuki Seko replaces Ben Pearson.
45
Attempt Attempt
Scott Twine takes a right-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Steven Nzonzi's right-footed shot is saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Ben Pearson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Junior Tchamadeu takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
23
Attempt Attempt
Bae Jun Ho takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
21
Attempt Attempt
Adam Randell takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
10
Attempt Attempt
Tomi Horvat takes a left-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Sorba Thomas takes a right-footed shot but misses.
5
Attempt Attempt
Scott Twine takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
1
Attempt Attempt
Sorba Thomas takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
1
Attempt Attempt
Delano Burgzorg scores with a right-footed shot.

CONCLUSION

Bristol City's 2-0 triumph over Stoke City reinforces their status as the stronger outfit, triumphing despite ceding possession. The halftime lead of 1-0 set the tone, and a second goal ensured control. This outcome, with its significant deviation and market alignment, paints a picture of efficiency and resolve. Without xG insights or disruptive events, the win stands on pure execution—sharp finishing paired with resolute defending. Stoke's possession failed to yield, exposing vulnerabilities. For Bristol, this boosts momentum; for Stoke, it's a call to sharpen conversion rates. A clean, decisive performance that bodes well for future fixtures.

Bristol City vs Stoke City preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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